Spot gold is expected to hold its ground and trade with a positive bias driven by safe-haven buying - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to hold its ground and trade with a positive bias driven by safe-haven buying. Ongoing US-Iran military tensions will continue to provide support to the prices, as concerns mount that the conflict could spread throughout the Middle East. Safe-haven demand has surged following Iran's drone and missile strikes against several countries in the region, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Turkey, and Oman. Furthermore, persistent central bank purchases and strong ETF inflows are likely to keep prices firm. However, any signs of deescalation could trigger a temporary pullback in bullion.
* Spot gold is likely to move in the wide range of $5080 to $5240. MCX Gold April is expected to move higher towards Rs.165,000 as long as it trades above Rs.160,000.
* Spot silver is likely to find floor near $80 and rebound towards $87.50. MCX Silver May is expected to move higher towards Rs.275,000 as long as it holds above Rs.262,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to face headwinds and trade lower as escalating Middle East tensions drive risk aversion across global markets. Furthermore, sluggish demand from Chinese buyers and a steady build-up of domestic inventories are likely to weigh on prices. Meanwhile, Chinese government investment in ultra-high-voltage power grids and renewable energy could limit the downside in metal prices. Further rising, Yangshan copper premium after holiday season indicates demand improvement.
* MCX Copper March is expected to move between Rs.1200-Rs.1220 level. Only a move above Rs.1220 it would turn bullish towards Rs.1230.
* MCX Aluminum March is expected to hold above Rs.325 and rise towards Rs.335 level. A move above Rs.335 it would bring fresh buying in the metal and push price towards Rs.340.
* MCX Zinc March is likely to face hurdle near Rs.330 level and move lower towards Rs.322 level.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is projected to sustain its gains and trend higher amid escalating Middle East tensions. Concerns are mounting that a wider regional conflict could disrupt critical oil supplies, providing significant upward pressure on prices. The broader US-Israeli campaign against Iran has entered its sixth day, leaving markets braced for further escalation and heightened risk of protracted conflict. The crisis has effectively paralysed commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following IRGC’s warning that it would “set ablaze” any vessel attempting transit.
* NYMEX crude is expected to remain volatile and move higher towards $80 per barrel, as long as it holds above $75 mark. MCX Crude oil March is likely to move towards Rs 7200 as long as it holds above Rs 6600.
* MCX Natural gas March future is expected to hold support near Rs 270 and rise towards Rs 285.
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