Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid soft dollar and decline in crude oil prices - ICICI Direct
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Currency Outlook
Rupee Outlook
• Rupee appreciated marginally yesterday amid weakness in dollar and optimistic domestic market sentiments. Meanwhile, dollar demand from state run banks offset positive cues.
• Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid soft dollar and decline in crude oil prices. Dollar is moving south ahead of slew of economic data, as it could provide fresh cues on when Fed would start cutting rates this year. Markets currently imply around 53% chance the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in June and ease by around 75 bps this year. Moreover, rise in risk appetite in the domestic market and FII inflows would aid rupee to gain strength. USDINR March likely to slip towards 82.80 levels as long as it sustains below 83.00 levels
Euro and Pound Outlook
• Euro edged higher by 0.17% yesterday amid weak dollar and positive economic data from euro zone. Eurozone March Sentix investor confidence index rose more than expected to an 11 month high. For today, EURUSD is likely to hold the support near 1.0830 level and rise towards 1.0880 level amid soft dollar and as most ECB policymakers have been cautious about suggesting that they will be cutting interest rates soon. EURINR March may rise towards 90.40 level as long as it trades above 89.90 levels
• Pound is expected to rise further towards 1.2720 level amid soft dollar and ahead of British budget. Further, BOE is expected to lag US Fed and ECB when it comes to rate cuts. GBPINR March is likely to move north towards 105.50 level as long as it stays above 104.90 levels
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