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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee closed on positive note on Friday amid positive domestic market sentiments and dollar sales from foreign banks. Meanwhile, sharp gains were prevented as hawkish comments from US Fed officials prompted investors to dial back rate cut expectations.

* Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid retreat in dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. Market sentiments improved after Iran downplayed Israel’s attack, a move seems to appear averting regional escalation. Meanwhile, sharp gains may be prevented as investors will remain cautious ahead of slew of economic data from major countries to gauge economic health and get fresh cues on policy path. USDINR April likely to slip towards 83.44 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it sustains below 83.60 level. A sustain break below 83.44 levels pair may move further south towards 83.34 levels (20-Day EMA).

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro gained by 0.08% on Friday amid weakness in dollar, rise in German bund yields and stronger than expected German producer price index. However, sharp gains were capped as ECB President Lagarde said disinflation process in euro zone has continued. For today, EURUSD is likely to hold the immediate support near 1.0640 level and rise towards 1.0690 level (10-Day EMA) amid soft dollar, positive global market sentiments and expectation of improved economic data from euro zone. If pair sustains above 1.0690 level then it may further rally towards 1.0730 level (20-Day EMA). EURINR April is likely to rise towards 89.30 levels as long as it trades above 88.90 levels.

* Pound is expected to hold the support near 1.2350 levels and rise back towards 1.2410 level amid weakness in dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped on weak economic data from Britain. GBPINR April is likely to rise towards 103.60 level as long as it stays above 103.00 levels

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