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Although Q4 has seen supply-side disruptions, demand trends across most discretionary names either improved or sustained. We expect elevated growth trends to sustain for TTAN/SENCO/LENSKART/ETHOSLTD in Q4, while growth trends are likely to improve for DMART/VBL/PAG/METROBR/most QSRs (Exhibit 4). JUBI's revenue update (0.2% LFL) suggests a relatively high impact from the LPG shortage in Mar-26 and unexpected rains across key clusters, albeit JUBI has expressed confidence in a return to normalcy as of now. Going ahead, sourcing challenges and crude-related spikes in raw materials (packaging/soles, logistics/dyes) need to be closely monitored, as visibility on the normalization of global supply chains remains low as of now. In this context, we prefer names such as TTAN, VMM, and PAG in the near term, as they either sell need-based products, have higher pricing power, or trade at comfortable valuations. DMART may also benefit in the near-term but high valuation, increasing QC competition, and low ROIC keep us conservative. Factoring in the macro uncertainty, we have cut our target multiples and FY27E earnings across most covered names by 15-20% and 3-10%, respectively, barring TTAN, PAG, and LENSKART. With broader correction, our ratings remain largely unchanged for most players, with challenges being more supply-side (rather than demand-led). Despite the near-term softness, we remain constructive on the consumer discretionary space, supported by long-term growth drivers and continued growth investments.

Jewelry players continue to lead growth; margin performance a key monitorable

TTAN reported strong 46% growth in its domestic jewelry business, with best-in-class SSG of ~48% across jewelry formats. Buyer growth revived in Q4 with high-single digit growth, after flat buyer growth in 9MFY26. Within categories, studded grew strongly in early thirties (vs 11/16/26% growth in Q1/Q2/Q3), plain gold jewelry saw continued growth in the midthirties, while coins nearly tripled in sales, compared to Q4FY25. The international business (including Damas) grew strongly at 156% (37%/50% in USA/GCC- ex Damas). Other segments (eyewear/emerging businesses) recorded decent growth of 16-17% in Q4, while watches grew at a slower pace of 7%. The healthy business update drives an upward revision in TTAN’s EPS estimates by 1-2% which, along with rollover to Mar-28E EPS, results in an increase in our TP by ~7%. Senco also reported robust 46% growth in Q4, led by ~34% SSG, with the remaining contributed by store additions. Senco has guided for 20-25% topline growth for FY27 and maintained its EBITDA margin range of 7.5-7.8%. Senco’s valuation at 16x/12x FY27/28E EPS provides comfort.

Lenskart: Likely to clock another quarter of strong revenue growth

We expect the momentum to sustain for Lenskart in Q4, after a strong 9MFY26. We expect margins to also improve, as the company benefits from the operating leverage driven by strong sales growth. We maintain our estimates for LENSKART and increase our TP by ~9%, largely on account of rollover to Mar-28E earnings. With need-based products and vertically integrated operations, Lenskart is better-off vs peers. However, cost inflation in lenses/frames and currency depreciation will need to be monitored, in case of a prolonged supply-chain disruption.

DMART: Q4 topline growth sees an uptick; maintain structural sell

DMART has seen a healthy growth pick-up to 19% in Q4 (vs 13% in Q3), along with an encouraging acceleration in store openings in FY26. The business update should likely support a strong earnings growth of ~22% in Q4. With DMART catering to need-based products and potential price hikes by brands (amid crude spike), it may deliver better growth (vs peers) in the near term. However, current valuations already factor in a sustained improvement in these metrics, where we remain cautious given increasing QC intensity, slow TAM expansion, and low ROIC. In our view, a shift to a leased model or store openings via 100% equity could also drive a de-rating for DMART.

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