Quote on WPI by Rahul Agrawal, Principal Economist, ICRA Ltd
Below the Quote on WPI by Rahul Agrawal, Principal Economist, ICRA Ltd
"Elevated global commodity inflation expectedly pushed up the WPI inflation to a series-high of 11.4% in September 2026, in line with ICRA’s estimate (+11.3%) for the month. The non-food manufactured goods (core WPI) segment accounted for more than half of the 147 bps uptick in the headline inflation print in September relative to August 2026, reflecting the impact of the passthrough of input cost pressures.
Core WPI inflation hardened to a record 9.8% in September 2026 from 8.1% in August, with 13 of the 21 sub-sectors reporting an uptick in their inflation readings between these months. On a sequential basis, core WPI rose by a sharp 1.5% in September 2026, amid the upswing in global commodity prices in August-September owing to the flare up of tensions in West Asia.
WPI-food inflation rose to a 23-month high 8.7% in September 2026 from 7.1% in August, amid a significant hardening in prints across the cereals, pulses, fruits and vegetables, segments. Additionally, inflation in the fuel and power segment climbed up to a 3-month high 25.9% in September 2026, amid the surge in global energy prices.
While the sequential pace of hardening in food prices has softened in October 2026 so far relative to that seen in September, an adverse base would push up food inflation further in the ongoing month. Consequently, ICRA expects the WPI food inflation to rise to ~9.5-10.0% in October 2026. Uneven and sub-par monsoon rains have scarred the agricultural outlook, which along with an unfavourable base, is expected to result in elevated food inflation prints through H2 FY2027.
Amid hardening food inflation and no respite so far on global energy and commodity prices, ICRA expects the WPI inflation to inch up further to ~12.0% in October 2026, with the adverse base also playing spoilsport. WPI inflation prints are expected to remain elevated, in double digits, through Q3 FY2027."
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