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Below the Quote on Markets by Mr.Jaykrishna Gandhi - Head- Business Development - Institutional Equities, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd

India and Global Markets

2025 stood out for global equities, and 2026 seems to be starting with continuing favourable macro set up for EMs – growth is expanding, US dollar remains WEAK, Crude remains a tailwind for INDIA – though, we would now want companies to start delivering on the earnings and take the FY27e numbers into high teens. NIFTY Metal was one of the best performer last year (~40% gains) and is well placed to extend those gains into 2026 as well. 2026 themes are currently policy and carbon led – safeguard duty adds to steel companies’ earnings visibility; CBAM implementation from Jan’26 reshapes global competitiveness via carbon costs and aluminium market remain structurally tight due to China’s capacity cap . Business updates have started coming and strong updates from the banks in terms of Credit growth; Auto sales remained encouraging suggesting that post GST cuts gains are stabilising and MHCV clearly indicating a revival is brewing.

In US, Semi Index, has clocked 8-10% gains in first 3 days of 2026 trading, led by strength in memory stocks – all of which are up >20% in 3 days ! Consumer appliances, lower end smartphones using DRAM chips are a toast, given the current pricing scenario. Crude, meanwhile, losing ground following Trump’s message that Venezuela is going to hand over 30-50mn barrels of sanctioned oil to the US that will then be sold off in the market, implying more supplies likely hitting – though, no details yet available on how quickly and plausibly this can happen.

In alternate investment assets everything was UP – gold, silver, stocks, bonds, base metals and even VIX ! Copper is also extending its gains, catching up with precious metals – well past $13k/t for the first time ever.

Technical View

Since 1991, the Nifty 50 has witnessed seven major bullish cycles, with most rallies extending for 40–55 months, followed by corrective phases. Post-2009, these corrections have largely shifted from sharp price declines to time-wise consolidations, reflecting improved structural strength. Consistent with this behaviour, the index has recently completed a ~1-1.5-year time correction, which historically has been followed by the resumption of a bullish trend. We see upside potential up to 28,500, with positional support band at 25,500-25,300. Among sectors, Nifty Pharma has confirmed a breakout from an ‘inverted head and shoulder’ pattern, indicating bullish continuation with upside potential toward 24,000–24,500, while bullish bias holds above 23,500.

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