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Below the Quote on Market Movement 04th Aug 2025 by Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst-Commodities, Axis Securities Ltd

Comex Gold traded with volatility last week but still ended with gains of nearly 1%. The softer-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll data reinforced signs of a cooling labour market and strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the forecast of 100,000, while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. Following the data release, market participants increased the probability of a September rate cut to 75%, up from 45% previously. Additionally, President Trump's reaffirmation of a 10% global base tariff, along with new retaliatory duties of up to 41% on countries without trade agreements, could further support a bullish undertone for gold. In the MCX, gold prices are back above the Rs.1,00,000 level after the dollar index drifted lower from $100.2 down to $98.7, which is supportive for the yellow metal. This week, we expect prices to trade with a positive bias as long as the Rs.97,000 level is intact on the downside.

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