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Below the Quote on Daily Market Commentary for October 15th 2026 by Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Indian equities are likely to consolidate within a broader range in the near term, with intermittent recoveries and bounds of selling pressure. The Nifty’s move back above 23,000 has improved domestic sentiment, while resilient domestic demand, strong tax collections and the ongoing Q2 earnings season provide a positive backdrop. However, global inflation concerns have resurfaced after US September CPI rose to 3.7% YoY, above expectations of 3.6%, raising concerns over the potential for further Fed rate tightening. This has triggered a sharp sell-off in Asian technology stocks amid unwinding of crowded AI positions and higher funding-cost concerns, keeping global risk appetite under pressure. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 gained 1.7% to close at 22,997, while the Sensex surged 2.1% to 74,140. Buying was concentrated in large-cap stocks, supported by strong quarterly results from TCS and HCL Technologies and interest in attractively valued mega-cap stocks following recent corrections.  However, broader-market participation remained weak, the Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 declined 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively, indicating continued selling pressure and profit-booking beyond large caps. Private Banks, IT and Auto outperformed, while PSU Banks, Media and FMCG lagged. Brent crude fell 2.3% to around US$103.6/bbl, while bond yields eased, providing some relief to market sentiment. On the regulatory front, SEBI’s Secondary Market Advisory Committee has reportedly favoured retaining the existing 30-minute volume-weighted average price (VWAP) methodology for derivatives expiry settlement for at least a year, putting the proposed CAS-linked formula on hold. The panel has also recommended changes to market timings, while the treatment of market orders remains under review.  India’s direct tax collections continued to grow, with gross collections rising 14.9% YoY to Rs 16.03 lakh crore and net collections increasing 13.2% to Rs 13.37 lakh crore as of 14 October. Net corporate tax collections rose 20.6% to Rs 5.99 lakh crore, while non-corporate tax collections increased 5.8% to Rs 6.91 lakh crore. STT collections surged 51.6% to Rs 46,840 crore, while refunds increased 24.2% to Rs 2.65 lakh crore. Cumulative direct tax collections had reached 49.6% of the FY27 Budget target, with corporate taxes leading the growth. Separately, the government is reportedly examining possible relief in tax cases similar to Tiger Global following the Supreme Court’s ruling on capital gains arising through Mauritius-based investments. Any relief could improve sentiment among foreign investors using tax-treaty jurisdictions, although the government has not announced a formal decision. In the primary market, Jio Platforms set its IPO price band at Rs 1,065–1,119 per share for a fresh issue of up to Rs 30,213 crore, potentially making it India’s largest IPO. The issue is scheduled to open on 21 October and close on 23 October, with proceeds accruing to the company to fund its growth plans. On the Commodities front, sugar prices rose more than 10% over six days ahead of Diwali amid festive demand and tight supplies. Ex-mill prices increased 13% in Uttar Pradesh to Rs 5,200 per quintal and 17% in Maharashtra to Rs 5,100, raising concerns over near-term food-price pressures before the main crushing season begins. Investors will track India’s trade balance and foreign exchange reserves, along with Q2 earnings from Punjab National Bank, Federal Bank, Bajaj Housing Finance and Urban Company, among others.

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