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Below the Perspective on InvestValue on Gold by Mr. Aditya Agarwala, smallcase manager, CIO

“Gold is having its toughest week in months. Spot prices are down more than 3.5% to around $4,015 an ounce, the lowest since July 20, and Thursday alone took off 2.8%. On MCX, December gold has slipped below Rs 1.42 lakh per 10 grams, more than 20% below this year’s peak of Rs 1.81 lakh. Silver has broken below Rs 2 lakh for the first time since December 2025.

Oil is driving this sell-off more than fear is. Brent is above $110 on fresh supply risks in the Gulf, and that has revived inflation worries. US data was already running hot, with September CPI at 3.7% and PPI at 6.3%. Markets now expect one more Fed hike before year-end. When rates are rising, an asset that pays no yield struggles, even when geopolitical risk is high.

In the near term, two events will set direction: the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting, where a pause is largely priced in, and next week’s PCE inflation data. $4,000-$3950 is the key support zone, and a clear break below it could extend the correction. The structural case is still intact, though. Central banks bought 289 tonnes in Q2 alone. For Indian investors, this is a time to add gradually, not to panic or chase.”

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