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More than half of smartphones shipped in 2028 are projected to be GenAI capable, as broader use cases continue to emerge and availability expands across price segments, according to a new report. 

The global smartphone market has reached maturity, and shipments are expected to remain stable in the coming years. Growth will likely be driven by emerging markets like India, MEA and Southeast Asia.

“We expect smartphone revenues to continue to grow through 2028 as the premiumisation trend continues across markets. New technologies like GenAI and foldables are also likely to drive average selling price (ASP) growth as adoption rates rise,” said Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak.

While the smartphone market has enjoyed strong YoY growth over the last few quarters, it is mainly due to a recovery in macroeconomic conditions and consumer demand.

While shipment growth may have slowed in recent quarters, global smartphone revenue growth accelerated in Q3 2024, recording 10 per cent YoY growth to reach the highest-ever levels for a third quarter.

Apple led the market in smartphone revenues capturing a 43 per cent share and recording its highest-ever Q3 revenues, shipments, and ASPs.

A slightly earlier launch of the iPhone 16 series, a product mix increasingly favouring Pro versions and continued expansion in non-core markets drove Apple’s success in Q3, said Research Director Jeff Fieldhack.

With most major brands recording strong revenue growth, the $400 and above segment gained a net 2% per cent share YoY in Q3 2024.

The ongoing premiumisation wave, observed across regions, has incentivised OEMs to rethink their premium portfolio and device financing strategies.

The report expects the premiumisation trend to continue in the coming years and project global smartphone ASPs to rise at a CAGR of 3 per cent from 2023 through 2028.