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OPEC remains steadfast in its forecast, predicting a vigorous 1.85 million barrels per day surge in global oil demand for 2025, with a steady growth outlook of 2.25 million bpd for 2024. Emphasizing China and the Middle East as pivotal growth drivers, this early projection seeks to offer unparalleled long-term guidance. Despite output cuts, OPEC reports a slight December production rise led by Nigeria and adjusts figures to reflect Angola's exit.

Highlights

OPEC Sticks to 2024 Oil Demand Forecast: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its forecast for strong growth in global oil demand in 2024.

2025 Oil Demand Prediction: OPEC, in an earlier-than-usual prediction, anticipates a "robust" increase in oil demand in 2025, projecting a rise of 1.85 million barrels per day, led by China and the Middle East.

Steady Growth Outlook for 2024: OPEC's forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at a demand growth of 2.25 million barrels per day, indicating confidence in the market's resilience.

China and Middle East as Key Drivers: OPEC highlights that the anticipated growth in oil demand for 2025 will be primarily driven by China and the Middle East, emphasizing the importance of these regions in shaping future market dynamics.

Early Publication for Long-Term Guidance: OPEC's decision to release its 2025 oil demand prediction earlier than usual is aimed at providing long-term guidance for the market, offering insights into the organization's perspective on future trends.

Ongoing Output Cuts Amid Production Rise: Despite ongoing output cuts by the wider OPEC+ alliance to support the market, OPEC notes a slight rise in oil production in December, with Nigeria leading the increase.

Angola's Exit from OPEC: The report mentions that OPEC oil production figures were adjusted lower to reflect the departure of Angola from the group, as announced by Luanda the previous month.

Divergence with International Energy Agency (IEA): OPEC has consistently projected stronger demand growth for 2024 compared to other forecasters, notably differing from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their assessments of long-term demand and the necessity for new investment in supplies.

Conclusion

OPEC's proactive stance, diverging from traditional forecasts, paints a compelling picture of sustained oil demand, aligning with a future where China and the Middle East play pivotal roles. This early and robust projection not only showcases OPEC's confidence but also emphasizes the strategic importance of these regions. As OPEC adapts to changes with Angola's departure, their commitment to market transparency and guidance stands out, setting the stage for a dynamic and resilient global oil landscape.

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