04-11-2024 04:59 PM | Source: Kedia Advisory
OPEC+ Delays December Output Increase Amid Weak Oil Demand by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory

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OPEC+ has decided to delay its planned oil production increase for December by one month due to ongoing concerns about weak demand, notably from China, and rising supply from non-OPEC sources. This decision extends the current 2.2 million barrels per day cut until the end of December, aiming to stabilize prices under pressure. The group also reiterated its commitment to full conformity with output targets, emphasizing the importance of balancing supply and demand in the oil market. OPEC+ members, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, pledged to adhere to these targets and implement compensatory cuts for past overproduction. The next policy meeting to determine 2025 production levels will be held on December 1.

 

Key Highlights

# OPEC+ delays planned December output increase by one month.

# Decision influenced by weak demand and rising supply outside OPEC+.

# Oil prices remain under pressure despite postponed hike.

# Iraq and Kazakhstan reaffirm commitments to compensate for past overproduction.

# Next OPEC+ policy meeting on 2025 strategy scheduled for December 1.

 

Oil prices have been fluctuating as OPEC+ confirmed a decision to delay its planned output increase for December by one month. With demand still weak, particularly from China, and non-OPEC nations continuing to ramp up production, OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to extend the current 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) cut until the end of December. This move aims to provide stability to the oil market, which remains vulnerable, closing just above $73 a barrel last Friday.

 

The price performance for oil has been pressured by both internal and external factors. OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is focused on balancing supply and demand rather than targeting specific price levels. The recent decision to delay output expansion has added a minor uplift in prices, but Brent crude is still hovering close to its yearly lows. Earlier plans to ease production curbs in October were already postponed, signaling persistent concerns over global demand.

 

In addition to postponing the output hike, OPEC+ emphasized its commitment to compliance with agreed-upon cuts, particularly from Iraq and Kazakhstan. Both countries have been pumping above target levels but pledged compensatory reductions to align with group standards. The organization underscored the importance of full conformity, viewing it as essential to market stability.

 

Looking forward, the group’s remaining cuts, totaling 3.66 million bpd, will remain in place until the end of 2025. OPEC+ members will reconvene on December 1 to finalize policies for the coming year, marking another critical step in the group’s efforts to navigate market uncertainties.

 

Finally

The one-month delay reflects OPEC+'s cautious approach amid weak demand, aiming to stabilize prices while reaffirming production compliance and balance within the oil market.

 

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