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Gold

Gold displayed a robust performance, settling up by 1.27% at 62722, fueled by market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes. This optimism is based on the belief that the Federal Reserve will require nearly four more years to cover a historic operating loss and resume sending profits to the U.S. Treasury. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis indicates that the losses are a consequence of the Fed's rate rise cycle, involving a significant increase in its interest rate target while simultaneously reducing the size of its balance sheet to tighten monetary policy and address elevated inflation levels. In the physical gold market, top Asian hubs observed some selling activities as individuals sought to capitalize on relatively high prices. Lackluster demand during the wedding season in India led dealers to offer steeper discounts, reaching up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices compared to the previous week's $3 discounts. Additionally, premiums in China declined to $20-$40 an ounce over global spot prices, which remained close to $2,000 an ounce. Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data revealed a 23% month-on-month decline in China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in October. Technically, the gold market is under fresh buying, with a 20.55% increase in open interest to settle at 16143. The current price increase of 785 rupees places gold with support at 62150, potentially testing 61580 if breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 63045, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of 63370.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 61580-63370.
* Gold gains buoyed by expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes
* Fed may need four years to recoup income loss, St. Louis Fed study says
* In India, dealers offered discounts of up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $3 discounts.

Silver

Silver posted a gain of 0.66%, settling at 76993, benefitting from a weakened dollar and expectations of a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve. The renewed hopes for a rate cut followed recent U.S. consumer price inflation readings that showed a flat reading, with expectations of a dip in the PCE-based inflation readings. Additionally, concerns about the supply of industrial silver, coupled with robust demand, contributed to the positive sentiment. The Silver Institute's projection of a 2% decline in global mined silver production in 2023, primarily due to lower output from key producers Mexico and Peru, added to the market dynamics. The increasing investment in solar panels, power grids, and 5G networks fueled forecasts of an 8%-10% rise in silver demand. However, new home sales in the U.S. dropped by 5.6% in October to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 679,000 homes, missing expectations and indicating challenges in the housing market. Technically, the silver market is witnessing fresh buying, with a notable 27.72% increase in open interest to settle at 18202. The current price increase of 508 rupees places silver with support at 76410, potentially testing 75825 if breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 77365, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of 77735.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 75825-77735.
* Silver rose amidst weakness in dollar and hopes of a dovish pivot by the Fed.
* Rate cut hopes were renewed after recent consumer price inflation readings in the U.S. showed a flat reading.
* The expected dip in the PCE-based inflation readings also supported sentiment for the metal.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 2.33%, settling at 6413, driven by expectations that OPEC+ might extend or deepen supply cuts. This anticipation was reinforced by a storm-related reduction in Kazakh oil output. Kazakhstan's largest oil fields intend to maintain reduced output until December 3, improving the country's compliance with its OPEC+ quota. The storm in the Black Sea, affecting Kazakh crude shipments, led to reduced oil production. The Kazakh energy ministry projects November oil output at 1.588 million barrels per day and December production at 1.673 million bpd. While these figures are below the initial plans, they still exceed the 1.550 million bpd quota. OPEC+ discussions on the 2024 oil policy have proven challenging, making a rollover of the previous agreement more likely than deeper production cuts. The OPEC+ group, consisting of OPEC and allies led by Russia, is set to meet online to decide on oil output levels for 2024. Members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have committed to total oil output cuts of about 5 million bpd, approximately 5% of daily global demand, as part of a series of measures starting in late 2022. Technically, the crude oil market is experiencing short covering, with a 2.67% drop in open interest to settle at 11417. The current price increase of 146 rupees places crude oil with support at 6290, potentially testing 6167 if breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 6484, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of 6555.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6167-6555.
* Crude oil rose amid possibility that OPEC+ will extend or deepen supply cuts
* Kazakh oil output cuts expected to last at least until Dec.3
* OPEC+ talks on 2024 oil policy are difficult, making a rollover of the previous agreement a possibility rather than deeper production cuts.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by -0.69%, settling at 243, primarily due to record output levels and milder weather conditions limiting heating demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a withdrawal of 7 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage for the week ending Nov. 17, significantly lower than the 60 bcf withdrawal in the same week last year and the five-year average decline of 53 bcf. Record average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states, reaching 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from the previous record of 104.2 bcfd in October, contributed to the market pressure. The warmer-than-normal current weather conditions are expected to shift to colder-than-normal from Nov. 24-Dec. 1 before turning warmer again from Dec. 3-7. With colder weather approaching, U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, is forecasted to increase from 112.8 bcfd this week to 130.5 bcfd next week. Gas flows to the seven major U.S. LNG export plants also rose to an average of 14.3 bcfd in November, surpassing the October level of 13.7 bcfd and the previous monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. Technically, the natural gas market is experiencing fresh selling, with a 14.65% gain in open interest to settle at 43199. Support is identified at 239.4, with a potential test of 235.8 if breached, while resistance is likely at 248.5, and a move above could lead to a test of 254.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 235.8-254.
* Natural gas dropped weighed down by record output while mild weather limited heating demand.
* EIA utilities pulled 7 bcf of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 17.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from a record 104.2 bcfd in October


Copper

Copper prices rose by 0.44%, settling at 722, driven by a workers' strike at Peru's Las Bambas copper mine, owned by China's MMG Ltd. The strike, initiated by the workers' union, is demanding greater profit-sharing and improved transport conditions. Las Bambas, a significant copper producer, contributed 221,160 metric tons of copper output from January to September 2023, marking a nearly 22% increase compared to the same period last year. However, copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a 15.6% rise from the previous Friday, indicating potential concerns about demand and supply dynamics. In addition to the industry-specific factors, copper prices are influenced by broader economic conditions. Profits at China's industrial firms showed a 2.7% year-on-year rise in October, marking the third consecutive month of gains but at a slower pace. Despite the recent uptick in profits, China's economy has faced challenges, including distress in the housing market, local government debt risks, slow global growth, and geopolitical tensions. The year-to-date profits for the first ten months of 2023 slid 7.8% from the same period in the previous year, narrowing from a 9% decline in the first nine months. Technically, the copper market is experiencing fresh buying, with a 2.8% gain in open interest to settle at 5141. Support is identified at 717.7, with a potential test of 713.4 if breached, while resistance is likely at 724.6, and a move above could lead to a test of 727.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 713.4-727.2.
* Copper gains after workers go on indefinite strike at MMG's Las Bambas copper mine
* Profits at China's industrial firms extended gains for a third month in October, albeit at a slower pace
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 15.6 % from last Friday

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 0.4%, settling at 227.25, driven by expectations that China, a major metals consumer, would extend support measures for its economy. The global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 15,400 metric tons in September, compared to a surplus of 28,000 tons in August, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). The year-to-date global surplus reached 475,000 tons, significantly higher than the 47,000-ton surplus recorded in the same period last year. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses fell by 12.1% from the previous Friday, indicating potential tightening supply conditions. However, a notable influx of zinc into London Metal Exchange (LME)-approved warehouses, tripling the total in about a week to the highest levels in over two years, raised concerns about oversupply. China's refined zinc output in October exceeded expectations, reaching 604,600 metric tons, marking a month-on-month growth of 11.14% and a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. Despite positive production figures, some challenges emerged, including the temporary closure of two Nyrstar mines in the U.S. in October due to inflation impacts, contributing to an anticipated decline in zinc production in 2024. Additionally, power rationing notifications were sent to some smelters in Yunnan. Technically, the zinc market experienced short covering, with a 3.34% drop in open interest to settle at 3010. Support is identified at 226, with a potential test of 224.8 if breached, while resistance is likely at 228, and a move above could lead to a test of 228.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 224.8-228.8.
* Zinc gains on hopes that top metals consumer China will extend support measures for its economy.
* Global zinc market swings to deficit in September – ILZSG
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 12.1 % from last Friday


Aluminium

Aluminium prices remained unchanged at 203.45, as global primary aluminium output in October increased by 3.9% YoY to 6.116 million tonnes, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). China's primary aluminium imports for January-October surged by 173% YoY to 1.17 million metric tons, with exports at 113,400 metric tons, down 41.19% YoY. Net imports reached 1.06 million metric tons, a significant increase of 347.33% YoY. In October alone, Chinese aluminium imports rose by 221.19% YoY and 7.9% MoM to 216,600 metric tons, while exports declined by 4.67% YoY and 91.29% MoM to 600 metric tons. The "whitelist" lending support being drafted by Chinese regulators, including the People's Bank of China, is expected to benefit 50 property developers. Smelters in Yunnan province initiated a cut of 1.15 million tons of capacity in November to comply with anticipated power curbs until April. Yunnan is the fourth-largest aluminium-producing region in China, with around 5.7 million tons of capacity, constituting approximately 12% of the country's total capacity. China's aluminium imports, rising for the fifth consecutive month in October, reached 2.39 million tons for the first ten months of the year, reflecting increased buying activity amid solid demand and expectations of reduced domestic supply. Technically, the aluminium market observed fresh selling, with a 4.89% gain in open interest to settle at 3432. Support is identified at 202.5, with a potential test of 201.4 if breached, while resistance is likely at 204.2, and a move above could lead to a test of 204.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201.4-204.8.
* Aluminium dropped as global aluminium output rises 3.9% year on year in October
* Data showed that China imported 1.17 million mt of primary aluminum in January-October, up 173% YoY.
* Chinese regulators including the People's Bank of China are drafting a "whitelist" lending support to 50 property developers

Cotton

Cotton prices, represented by Cottoncandy, saw a marginal increase of 0.11%, settling at 57160. The uptick is attributed to the Cotton Association of India (CAI) revising down its cotton production estimate for the current 2023/2024 season to 29.4 million bales. The revision cited damage in Haryana caused by pink bollworm infestation and farmers uprooting plants. Additionally, a substantial 25% decline in cotton production is anticipated in north Maharashtra due to inadequate rainfall. The USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report presented a contrasting view, with an increase in the anticipated U.S. production in 2023/24 by 273,000 bales and raised global ending stocks by 1.6 million bales. The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2023/24 showed slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks. Production was adjusted higher to 13.1 million bales, with ending stocks at 3.2 million bales, accounting for 22.5% of use. CAI's final estimate for the 2022-23 cotton crop in India was slightly higher at 31.8 million bales, up from the previous estimate of 31.1 million bales in July. However, this is still lower than the government's third advance estimate of 34.3 million bales. In the major spot market of Rajkot, prices ended at 26756.9 Rupees, marking a slight decrease of -0.06%. Technically, the market is undergoing fresh buying, with a 11.81% increase in open interest to 142. The current price increase of 60 rupees places Cottoncandy with support at 56820, potentially testing 56480 if breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 57480, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of 57800.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56480-57800.
* Cotton gains as CAI has revised down its cotton production estimate for the current 2023/2024 season to 29.4 million bales
* India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26756.9 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices experienced a significant uptrend, settling up by 2.89% at 13234, driven by concerns about potential yield losses due to unfavorable weather conditions. The limited upside is attributed to slower buying activities as market participants anticipate the release of stocks ahead of the commencement of new crops in January 2024. The Turmeric Board in Telangana led by PM Modi has sparked concerns among farmers in Maharashtra regarding its headquarters location. Despite the challenges, there is support for stable prices due to the current levels of buying activity and decreasing supplies. Additionally, improved export opportunities are influencing the market positively. Turmeric exports during April-September 2023 increased by 4.14% to 92,025.16 tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. However, in September 2023, there was a month-on-month drop of 19.75% in exports, with a significant decline of 35.06% compared to September 2022. The outlook for turmeric is influenced by expectations of a 20–25% decline in seeding this year, particularly in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, as farmers shift priorities. In the major spot market of Nizamabad, prices ended at 13663.15 Rupees, gaining 1.95%. Technically, the market is undergoing fresh buying, with a 0.34% increase in open interest to 11,760. The current price increase of 372 rupees places Turmeric with support at 12914, potentially testing 12594 if breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 13540, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of 13846.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12594-13846.
* Turmeric gains on low level buying and the potential for yield losses
* In Sep 2023 around 9,085.81 tonnes exported as against 11,322.58 tonnes in Aug 2023 showing a drop of 19.75%.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13663.15 Rupees gained by 1.95 percent.

Jeera (cumin)

Jeera (cumin) prices rose by 2.3%, settling at 46075, driven by short covering and increased interest from stockists following a recent decline in prices. However, the upside is viewed as limited due to factors such as adequate soil moisture and favorable weather conditions for crop growth. The upcoming sowing season is expected to be normal, with Gujarat witnessing a substantial increase of nearly 116% in cumin sowing to 244,639 hectares compared to 113,109 hectares in the same period last year. Global demand for Indian jeera has declined as buyers prefer other sources like Syria and Turkey due to comparatively higher prices in India. The subdued overseas demand is attributed to the competitive pricing of Indian jeera in the global market, which has affected export activity. Jeera exports during April-September 2023 dropped by 29.79% to 76,969.88 tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. September 2023 saw a month-on-month decline of 11.02% in exports, with a notable drop of 60.27% compared to September 2022. In the major spot market of Unjha, prices ended at 47041.95 Rupees, gaining 0.31%. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with an 8.64% decrease in open interest to 3108. The current price increase of 1035 rupees places Jeera with support at 45440, potentially testing 44790 if breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 46660, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of 47230.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 44790-47230.
* Jeera gains triggered by short covering and stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 47041.95 Rupees gained by 0.31 percent.

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