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Gold

Gold edged higher by 0.2% to settle at 149,981, supported by a softer dollar and cautious optimism around a potential ceasefire in the ongoing U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. However, uncertainty remains elevated after fresh warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route. Concerns over rising oil prices and inflation continue to shape sentiment, especially as strong U.S. economic data—March nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3%—has led markets to largely rule out any Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. On the demand side, COMEX gold speculators slightly increased their net long positions, reflecting improving investor interest. Physical demand showed mixed trends—India witnessed a shift to premiums as lower prices attracted buyers, while China saw marginally softer premiums amid cautious buying. Meanwhile, central bank demand remains a key pillar, with continued purchases driven by diversification needs and geopolitical hedging, although elevated prices could moderate buying pace going forward. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 8.34% to 7,158. Immediate support is seen at 148,390, with a break below potentially testing 146,800. On the upside, resistance is placed at 151,480, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 152,980.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 146800-152980.

* Gold ticked up as dollar ‌eased and as markets assessed the impact on oil prices and inflation expectations of a ceasefire proposal.

* President Trump threatened to rain "hell" on Tehran if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, a critical route for global oil shipments.

* COMEX gold speculators increased net long positions by 1,098 contracts to 93,872 in week to March 31.

Silver

Silver edged higher by 0.38% to settle at 233,379, as markets reacted to reports of a possible 45-day ceasefire between the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators. While this raised hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty persists after fresh warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran continuing to resist and target energy infrastructure. Despite the recent uptick, silver remains under pressure overall, having dropped more than 20% since the conflict began. Rising energy prices have fueled inflation concerns and dampened expectations of rate cuts, limiting silver’s appeal. The metal has also struggled to act as a safe haven, as investors were forced to liquidate positions to cover losses in other asset classes. Meanwhile, strong U.S. economic data added to the cautious tone, with March nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market. On the supply side, silver holdings in London vaults declined by 2.4% to 27,065 tonnes at the end of February, reflecting some tightening in physical availability. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 0.6% to 5,819. Immediate support is seen at 229,890, while resistance stands at 236,630. A breakout above this level could push prices toward 239,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 226400-239880.

* Silver gains as investors assessed reports of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East.

* Fed’s Goolsbee said it was "unfortunate timing" for the economy to be hit by an oil shock

* US nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs in March, the most since December 2024, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

Crude oil

Crude oil gained 1.73% to settle at 10,588, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump issued a fresh ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Supply concerns intensified as the key shipping route remains largely shut, disrupting exports from major Middle East producers. Additional pressure came from Russia, where recent Ukrainian drone attacks temporarily affected Baltic export terminals, although loading activity has since resumed. Global supply dynamics remain tight, with strong competition emerging between Asian and European buyers for alternative crude sources, particularly from the U.S. OPEC+ announced a modest output increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May, but the impact is expected to be limited as several members face production constraints due to ongoing disruptions. The increase accounts for less than 2% of the supply affected by the Hormuz closure, making it largely symbolic in the current scenario. On the inventory front, U.S. crude stocks rose by 5.5 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined, indicating mixed demand signals. Meanwhile, Russia’s production edged slightly lower, while Kazakhstan reported a recovery in output. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest surging by 28.9%. Crude oil has immediate support at 10,286, with further downside toward 9,985. On the upside, resistance is seen at 10,764, and a breakout could push prices toward 10,941.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9985-10941.

* Crude oil gains after President Trump issued a fresh ultimatum to Iran and intensified threats targeting its civilian infrastructure.

* US crude premiums climb to record levels as Asia, Europe compete for supply

* OPEC+ agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a modest rise.

Natural gas

Natural gas edged higher by 0.68% to settle at 265.8, supported by expectations of stronger demand and sustained high flows to LNG export terminals. The latest EIA data showed a 36 Bcf injection for the week ended March 27, contrasting sharply with the five-year average withdrawal of 4 Bcf, indicating a relatively comfortable supply situation. Geopolitical tensions also remained in focus after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of potential strikes on Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, though Iran has rejected the demand. Despite this, U.S. natural gas markets remain relatively insulated from global disruptions, as export terminals are already operating near capacity. Interestingly, reports of LNG tankers from Qatar heading toward the Strait suggest a possible gradual resumption of exports from the region. On the fundamentals side, total U.S. gas inventories rose to 1.865 trillion cubic feet, about 5.4% higher than last year and 3% above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects production to rise to record levels, reaching 109.5 bcfd in 2026, even as domestic demand slightly declines. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 5.82% to 34,387. Immediate support is seen at 261, with further downside toward 256.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at 270.4, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 275.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 256.3-275.1.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for more demand and near-record amounts of gas flowing to LNG export plants

* Europe’s gas storage is running low, standing at 28%, heightening vulnerability as competition with Asia for LNG intensifies.

* The latest EIA data showed a 36 Bcf injection, compared with a five-year average withdrawal of 4 Bcf.

Copper

Copper edged up by 0.55% to settle at 1,161.5, supported by improving market sentiment amid renewed hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East. Reports of ongoing negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators for a potential 45-day truce helped ease geopolitical concerns, although uncertainty still lingers as tensions remain unresolved. Despite the recent recovery, copper continues to trade lower for the year, weighed down by ample global supply and elevated inventory levels. LME stockpiles remain near six-year highs, although Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined sharply by 16.2% last week, offering some near-term support. Meanwhile, major Chinese smelters are expected to maintain or even increase production in 2026, which could keep supply pressure intact. On the demand side, concerns persist as rising energy costs and geopolitical risks cloud the global growth outlook. From a broader perspective, Chile’s copper output fell 4.8% year-on-year in February, marking continued supply-side challenges, while global refined copper markets showed a modest surplus of 17,000 metric tons in January. China’s copper imports also declined, reflecting softer near-term demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 2.15%. Immediate support is seen at 1,151.1, with downside risk toward 1,140.8. On the upside, resistance stands at 1,171.6, and a break above this level could push prices toward 1,181.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1140.8-1181.8.

* Copper climbed as market sentiment improved on hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East.

* London Metal Exchange stockpiles near six-year highs.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 16.2% from last Friday

Zinc

Zinc edged up by 0.39% to settle at 324.45, supported by improving industrial activity in China and signs of short-term supply tightness. China’s manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.4 in March, returning to expansion territory and lifting demand sentiment for base metals. At the same time, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 1% over the past week, while ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions continued to keep supplies relatively tight. However, gains remained capped as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict weighed on the broader demand outlook. Fresh warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump about potential strikes on Iran have kept markets cautious, with concerns that prolonged tensions could impact global economic growth. On the supply side, the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project are expected to add to output, keeping the global zinc market in a small surplus. Data also showed Peru’s zinc production rose 14.7% year-on-year in January, while the global market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 metric tons. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest slipping by 0.61%. Zinc has immediate support at 321.9, with further downside toward 319.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at 326.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 328.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 319.3-328.1.

* Zinc gains amid signs of improving industrial activity and short-term supply tightness.

* However upside seen limited as uncertainty over the duration of the Middle East conflict clouded the demand outlook.

* China's factory activity returned to expansion in March, supporting demand prospects.

Aluminium

Aluminium slipped by 0.55% to settle at 352.4, pressured by growing concerns over a potential global economic slowdown. A stronger dollar, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran, dampened expectations of a quick resolution to the conflict and raised fears around inflation and prolonged higher interest rates. This cautious macro outlook weighed on sentiment across industrial metals. However, losses were partly cushioned by ongoing supply-side risks. Concerns over possible smelter disruptions in the Gulf kept the market supported, while the LME cash contract trading at a steep $69 premium over the three-month forward highlighted tight near-term availability. At the same time, rising inventories capped upside momentum, with Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks climbing 3.4% to a six-year high of 470,108 tons, reflecting weaker buying interest amid price volatility. Globally, primary aluminium inventories have crossed 1.3 million tons, the highest since 2020, while production continues to rise modestly. China’s output increased 3% in the first two months of the year, although imports declined, indicating a mixed demand-supply picture. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 5.23%. Aluminium has immediate support at 348.1, with a break below likely testing 343.9. On the upside, resistance is seen at 357.6, and a move above this level could push prices toward 362.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 343.9-362.9.

* Aluminium fell amid a mounting concerns over a potential economic recession.

* The cash LME aluminium contract was trading at a steep $69 a ton premium over the three-month forward.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.4% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices jumped 3.29% to settle at  Rs.16,246, driven by tight arrivals and steady demand in both domestic and export markets. Supplies remain constrained as farmers and stockists have reduced their holdings, creating a firm base for prices ahead of fresh crop arrivals. At the same time, weather-related issues in key producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have impacted yields, further supporting the market. However, the upside may face some resistance in the near term. Fresh arrivals from Erode are expected to increase significantly over the next couple of weeks, while higher acreage, supported by favourable rains, could add to supply. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated to rise about 4% year-on-year, with production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes, although gains are being partially offset by disease and weather-related losses. On the demand side, export trends remain mixed. While January shipments declined, cumulative exports for the season are slightly higher, indicating stable medium-term demand. Lower imports also suggest reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 4.97% to 13,470 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.15,832, with further downside toward  Rs.15,418. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.16,480, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.16,714.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15418-16714.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15731.8 Rupees gained by 3.28 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices moved higher, gaining 0.63% to settle at  Rs.22,465, supported by weather concerns in key growing regions. The India Meteorological Department has warned of rising temperatures in North Gujarat, which could affect seed development in late-sown crops and further reduce yields. Overall production is expected to decline by around 5% this year, with Gujarat seeing a sharp drop due to lower acreage and weaker yields, although Rajasthan’s improved output may partially offset the decline. Despite these supportive factors, the upside remains limited. New crop arrivals have already begun and are expected to increase steadily, adding supply pressure in the near term. At the same time, export demand continues to remain weak, with both monthly and cumulative shipments showing a sharp decline, reflecting subdued global buying interest and adequate domestic stocks. Additional uncertainties, including erratic weather, pest risks, and logistical disruptions, continue to influence market sentiment. While reduced supplies from other producing countries provide some support, lack of strong overseas demand is capping further gains. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping sharply by 8.49% to 5,076 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.22,190, with further downside toward  Rs.21,910. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.22,670, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.22,870.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21910-22870.

* Jeera gains as India Meteorological Department has issued alerts for rising temperatures in North Gujarat.

* Severe heatwaves could impact the seed weight of the late-sown Jeera crop, potentially reducing final yield numbers.

* Production is expected to decline by approximately 5 percent to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22559.15 Rupees dropped by -0.17 percent.

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