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Bullion Outlook

Metal’s Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to remain under pressure amid strong dollar and fading hopes of early rate cut in September. Hawkish comments from the Fed members and expectation of improved GDP numbers in US would limit the upside in the bullions. Meanwhile, rise in jobless claims numbers indicates crack in the job market, which could provide some support to the bullions. Along with that safe haven bids on the back of geopolitical and economic uncertainties might help the precious metal to trim its losses. However, Meanwhile, breakdown of a bearish flag on the daily charts indicates prices to remain under pressure.

*  MCX Gold Aug is expected to dip towards the key support near 70700 as it has breached the intermediate support at 71200. Formation of bearish engulfing on the daily charts would limit its upside. Only close below 70,700, it would weaken towards 70,300.

* MCX Silver July is expected to move lower towards 86,000, as long as it trades under 88,200.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to remain under pressure amid soft Chinese demand and strong dollar. Absence of new bidders from the end users in China amid higher prices led to buildup of inventories. Further, lower imports of refined copper led to record-low premiums for Shanghai grade A copper cathode indicating sluggish growth. Further, rise in inventory levels in LME and other major exchanges would limit its upside. Meanwhile, hopes of fresh round of stimulus from China could limit its downside.

* MCX Copper July is expected to face the hurdle near 850 and move lower towards 830. Bearish cross over of 10 and 20 day EMA in the daily charts along with bearishness in the oscillator (RSI below 50) would weaken the metal towards 830.

*  Aluminum is expected to trade weak and move towards 227, as long as it remains under 233 mark.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to face the hurdle near $82 and move lower towards the $80 mark amid strong dollar and slow demand from the top oil consumer. Meanwhile, escalating Mideast tension and decline in oil exports from Russian due to recent EU sanction on 17 ships carrying Russian oil would support the oil to hold above the $80 mark. On the other hand, disappointing economic numbers from China and stronger dollar due to hawkish comments from the Fed members would restrict its upside. Moreover, higher OI concentration at OTM call strikes indicates price may face stiff resistance near $82. on the downside $80 holds as key support.

* MCX Crude oil July is likely to dip towards the 10 day EMA support near 6700, as long as it trades under 6850. Only a move below 6700, it would decline towards 6620.

* MCX Natural gas July is likely face the hurdle near 240 and move lower towards 226.

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