MCX Natural gas July is expected to weaken further towards 230, as long as it trades under the 246 mark - ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
• Spot gold is likely to face the hurdle near $2340 and move towards $2300 level amid strong dollar and hawkish comments from the Fed members. The Fed officials pushed out the timing of the first interest rate cut this year citing higher inflation numbers and better than expected economic numbers. The rate cut probability in September has dipped to 66% against 68% last week. Meanwhile, safe haven bids on the back of geopolitical and economic uncertainties might help the precious metal to trim its losses.
• MCX Gold Aug has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily charts, indicating weakness in the trend. Further, formation of bearish pattern is likely to weaken the price towards 71,200. On the upside 72,200 would act as key hurdle for price.
• MCX Silver July is expected to move lower towards 88,200, as long as it trades under 90,200.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to remain under pressure amid demand concerns from China and build-up of inventory levels in SHFE and LME. Further, stronger dollar on fading hopes of early rate cut by the US Federal Reserve would also check any major upside in the metal. On the other hand any new measures from China to support the struggling property sector would provide some support to the metal. Meanwhile, focus will remain on the key comments from the Fed officials and latest economic numbers to get more clarity in its direction.
• MCX Copper July is expected to face the hurdle near 10 day EMA at 859 and move lower towards its recent bottom at 844. Only a move below 844, it would open the downside in the metal towards 836.
• Aluminum is expected to move in the band of 229-233. Only close below 229, it would weaken towards 227 mark.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade lower amid strong dollar after concerns for higher-for-longer interest rate outlook in the near term. Meanwhile, on-going geopolitical concerns and higher demand of gasoline and refinery runs in US would help the oil prices to limit its downside. Meanwhile, higher OI concentration at OTM call strikes indicates price may face stiff resistance. NYMEX crude is expected to dip towards the $79 mark, as long as it remains under the $82 mark.
• MCX Crude oil July is likely to move lower towards the 10 day EMA support near 6650, as long as it trades below 6850.
• MCX Natural gas July is expected to weaken further towards 230, as long as it trades under the 246 mark. Increasing production and higher inventories is likely to counter the demand from the electricity providers.
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