MCX Gold June is expected to rise towards Rs.152,800, as long as it moves above ?148,000 - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to hold support near $4,600 per ounce level, with potential for an upward move toward $4,800 amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. Reduction in tensions could lead to a decline in crude oil prices, easing inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood of central bank rate cuts, which generally benefit non-yielding assets like gold. Further, soft dollar and correction in US treasury yields would support prices. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key US private job numbers data and retail sales numbers to get further cues. A softer than expected job numbers would again increase the prospects of rate reduction from US Fed.
* MCX Gold June is expected to rise towards Rs.152,800, as long as it moves above Rs.148,000. Only a move above Rs.152,800, it would rise towards Rs.154,000.
* MCX Silver May is expected to move towards Rs.248,000 as long as it holds above Rs.235,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade higher amid improved risk sentiments and soft dollar. Further, better than expected manufacturing activity in China signals demand recovery. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index for March rose to 50.4 from February's 49.0. Moreover, recent jump in the Yangshan copper premium to $68 per tonne indicates a steady recovery in Chinese appetite for imported copper, reaching a nine-month high.
* In the near term MCX Copper April is expected to move in the band of Rs.1150 and Rs.1175. Only a move above Rs.1175 it would rise towards Rs.1184.
* MCX Aluminum March is expected to find the support near Rs.340 and rise towards Rs.354 level amid persistent supply concerns form the Middle east.
* MCX Zinc March is likely to hold support near Rs.312 level and move towards Rs.322 level.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is expected to face hurdle near $105 per barrel and move lower amid growing hopes for de-escalation of conflict in Middle East. US President signaled that U.S. forces could leave the region within two to three weeks, easing fears of prolonged military engagement. Moreover, Iran’s president also echoed his willingness to halt hostilities if guarantees are secured. Furthermore, sluggish demand growth from China could also weigh on oil prices. Meanwhile, investor will eye on further developments from the Middle east which could bring more clarity in price trend.
* NYMEX crude oil is expected to move in a broader range of $98 and $105. Only a move below $98 it would turn weaker. MCX Crude oil April is likely to move in a broader range of Rs.9400 and Rs.9900. Only a move below Rs.9400 it would slip towards Rs.9200.
* MCX Natural gas April future is expected to face resistance at Rs.284 and move lower towards Rs.268.
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