MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold the key support near 72,000 (5- DEMA) and move back towards 73,000 - ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
Metal’s Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to hold the key support at $2335 and move towards $2370 amid softness in the dollar and decline in global treasury yields. Forecast for less number of jobs getting added in economy would provide support to the bullions. Non-farm payrolls data expected to show an increase of 190,000 jobs in June after a rise of 272,000 in May. The probability of rate cut in September has went up to 72% after Wednesday’s weak economic numbers.
* MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold the key support near 72,000 (5- DEMA) and move back towards 73,000. The bullish cross over of 5 and 10 day EMA with strong momentum (RSI at 55) would help the bulls to take control.
* MCX Silver September is expected to hold the support near 5 day EMA 91,000 and rise towards 92,650. Above 92,650 it would open the doors towards 93,400.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to extend its rebound amid softness in the US dollar and increasing prospects of September rate cut. Further signs of improving demand from the top metal consumer China would help the metal to hold its gains. Moreover, hopes of fresh round of stimulus at China’s third Plenum policy meeting later this month would support the metals to hold its gains. Meanwhile, expanding global inventories would keep a check on the upside in the metal.
* MCX Copper July is expected to hold the support near 5 day EMA at 858 and move towards 872. Above 872, it would rally towards 878 mark.
* Aluminum is expected to rise towards 235, as long as it holds above the 5-day EMA at 231. However, rising inventory levels in LME would check its upside.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to find support near the $82 mark and move towards $85 level amid improved risk appetite and rise in demand over the summer driving season in US. Further, increasing geopolitical tension in the Middle east would hurt global supplies. Additionally, increasing bets of rate cut in Septembers would strengthen its bullish outlook. While, higher OI concentration at 85 Call strike indicates a stiff resistance, which could act as supply zone for price.
* MCX Crude oil July is likely to rise towards 7100, as long as it holds above the 5 day EMA at 6880. Bullish crossover 10 and 20 day EMA would support the trend.
* MCX Natural gas July is likely to face the hurdle near 207 ( 5 DEMA) and move lower towards 192.
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