MCX Crude oil June is likely to move in the band of Rs 8600 to Rs 9200 level - ICICI Direct Ltd
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is prices are likely to stabilize above $4500 amid optimism over peace agreement between US-Iran. After the recent US military operations in southern Iran, most investors remained cautiously optimistic that US and Iran could still secure a peace agreement. Moreover, softer dollar and correction in the US treasury yields would also support the bullions to recover its earlier losses. On the other hand, a hawkish tone from US Fed members and ECB to counter higher inflation and keep interest rates higher would restrict any major upside in the bullions. As per the CME Fed watch toll, this year rate hike probability has held above 54%.
• MCX Gold June is expected to move in the band of Rs 156,500 to Rs 160,000. Only a move above Rs 160,000 it would rise towards Rs 162,000. On the downside Rs156,500 ( 20 DEMA) holds as key support.
• MCX Silver July is expected to trade in a wide range of Rs 268,000-Rs 277,000. Only a move above Rs 277,000 it would move towards Rs 280,000 to Rs 282,500 range.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to hold its ground and move higher amid strong industrial demand and supply concerns. Shortages of key production material like sulfuric acid has hurt copper smelting. Furthermore, steady Shanghai Yangshan copper premium at $73 per metric ton indicates resilient physical appetite from China, which might provide support to prices. Any sign of peace deal between US and Iran would improve risk appetite and global industrial demand.
• MCX Copper June is expected to move towards Rs1370, as long as it holds above Rs1348. Only a move above Rs1370, it would rise towards Rs1380 level.
• MCX Aluminum June is expected to hold its ground near Rs 380-Rs 382 level and move towards Rs 390-Rs 392 level. MCX Zinc June is likely to hold above Rs 363 and move towards Rs 370-Rs 372 level. Only a move below Rs 363 it would slip towards Rs 360-Rs 358
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile amid mixed trends, as escalating geopolitical friction in the Middle East collides with advancing diplomatic negotiations. While active regional hostilities threaten global supply stability, parallel negotiations offer hope for an agreement to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. Market anxiety has been partially tempered by signals from Iran indicating that recent strikes will not derail backchannel talks. However, a nearterm resolution remains unlikely, as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that it will take several days to reach a potential agreement.
• MCX Crude oil June is likely to move in the band of Rs 8600 to Rs 9200 level. Only a move below Rs 8600 it would correct further towards Rs 8200 levels.
• MCX Natural gas June is expected to rise towards Rs 300-Rs 305 level, as long as it holds above Rs 285 level..
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