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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is likely to trade with a bullish bias amid growing prospects of lower interest rates from major central banks. ECB in its latest commentary has emphasized to lower the rates till Mid of 2025 to support growth. Further, weaker set of economic numbers from US has increased the odds of 50 bps interest rate cut by the Fed in November which would also provide support to the bullions. Persistence increasing ETF holdings and highest net longs in COMEX Futures which hit its highest level since 2020 indicates bullishness in price. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key US economic numbers and comments from Fed members, which could bring more clarity. Closer of OI in ATM and OTM call strikes indicates higher prices.

* MCX Gold Oct is expected to hold the key support at 74400 and move higher towards 75,400. A move above 75,400 would open the doors towards 76,000.

* Spot silver is likely to move towards $32.50. Above $32.50 it would test $33.20. MCX Silver December is expected to rise towards 94,500.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade higher amid improved risk sentiments and weak dollar. Further, China announced a series of measures to boost economic growth and shore up its struggling property market. Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said policymakers would help banks boost lending to consumers, cut the key short-term interest rate and lower mortgage rates. Furthermore, growing bets of loose monetary policy from major central banks would also improve metal demand.

* MCX Copper October is expected to hold the immediate support at 826 and move higher towards 842.

* MCX Aluminum is expected to rise towards 238, as long as it trades above 233. Prices are likely to get support from the uncertainty around alumina supply in China, as output issues from Guinea and Australia persists.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to hold the support of $70 and rise towards $73 amid improved risk sentiments and supply concerns. A wider Middle East conflicts is likely to provide support to prices. Further, falling US crude and fuel inventories would also support the energy prices. API data showed last week crude oil inventories decline by 4.34 million barrels and gasoline stocks fell by 3.44 million barrels. Prices, may find strength amid growing prospects of more interest rate cut by major central banks to support the growth in the economy. Meanwhile, EIA’s weekly inventory numbers would be eyed by the investors.

* MCX Crude oil October is likely to move towards 6100, as long as it holds above 5850. Above 6100, it would open the doors towards 6200.

* MCX Natural gas October is expected face the hurdle near 245 and weaken towards 230 as the fear of supply disruption recedes.

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