MCX Aluminum Jan is expected to move north towards 242 level as long as it stays above 238.50 level - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
Gold
* Spot gold is likely to slip back towards $2635 level amid strong dollar and surge in US treasury yields. Yields are moving up on concerns that US President-elect Donald Trump policies could spur inflation limiting Fed from cutting rates at same pace seen in 2024. Additionally, FOMC meeting minutes showed that policymakers are concerned about rising inflation risk and signaled that they might slow pace of policy easing. Moreover, investors will keep a close eye on policymakers speeches to get more clarity on rate trajectory
* Spot gold is likely to slip back towards $2635 level as long as it stays below $2675 level. MCX Gold February is expected to slip back towards 77,200 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 78,200 level.
* Spot Silver is likely to rise towards $30.40 level which is also (50-Day EMA) as long as it trades above 20-Day EMA at $29.80 level. MCX Silver March is expected to rise towards 92,000 level as long as it trades above 90,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to correct on strong dollar and risk aversion in the global markets. Dollar is gaining strength as signs of strength in US economy turn down expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts in near term. Additionally, uncertainties around President-elect Donald Trump tariffs plan will hurt market sentiments. Meanwhile, sharp fall may be cushioned on persistent decline in inventories at LME registered warehouses and on hopes that China will unveil monetary and fiscal stimulus to bolster economic growth
* MCX Copper January is expected to slip back towards 815 level as long as it stays below 827 level. A break below 815 prices would slip further towards 809 level
* MCX Aluminum Jan is expected to move north towards 242 level as long as it stays above 238.50 level. MCX Zinc Jan is likely to slip towards 267 level as long as it stays below 271 level
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to slip further towards $71.50 level amid strong dollar and rise in fuel inventories. Meanwhile, sharp fall may be cushioned on concerns over tighter supplies from OPEC and Russia. Survey showed oil output from the OPEC fell in December after 2- months of increase and in Russia oil output averaged 8.971 million barrels a day in December, below country’s target.
* Call side maximum open interest is observed at $75 strike acting as stiff resistance. While, on the put side, the $70 strike holds maximum open interest acting as strong support zone. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to slip back towards $71.5 level as long as its stays below $74.0 level. MCX Crude oil Jan is likely to slip back towards 6200 level as long as it stays below 6430 level.
* MCX Natural gas Jan is expected to rise back towards 322 level as long as it stays above 300 level. A break above 322 level it may further rise towards 330 level.
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