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ASIA

Asian markets fell and the dollar extended its losses after experiencing its steepest drop in three years. The escalating global trade war further weakened an already fragile risk appetite. The Gift Nifty indicates a positive opening for Indian markets.

US & EUROPE

U.S. markets and the dollar fell yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing down over 3% as investors remained cautious. This followed a massive relief rally the previous day after the U.S. President's decision to temporarily reduce tariffs on many countries. European markets soared yesterday, with most indices experiencing their largest one-day gains since 2022, driven by the U.S. President's pause on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners.

COMMODITIES

Oil prices fell by more than $2 per barrel on Thursday, erasing the previous session's gains, as investors reconsidered the planned pause in extensive U.S. tariffs and shifted their focus to the escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing. Meanwhile, gold surged to a new record high above $3,200 an ounce, as worries about the global economic impact of tariffs drove investors towards this safe haven

Nifty Outlook

Though our bets for Wednesday was for renewed attempts to swing higher again, after the initial dip, we had stopped short of marking an upside target, since VIX stayed above 21. Volatility should remain the dominant theme at open today as well, as the news flow of the mid week holiday gets absorbed in. We do not have clarity on upside objectives. Should we fail to push above 23140 or float above 22850, expect weakness to emerge. But, we expect another wave of buying should we land in the 22500 vicinity subsequently. Expect weakness to dominate if below 22350, though a fall below 22160 is less likely. Alternatively a direct rise above 23140 could initiate fresh wave of buying.

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