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Below the Market Commentary (closing) for 30th December 2025 by Bajaj Broking

Market Closing Commentary

Indian benchmark indices witnessed a volatile yet range-bound session on 30th December, marked by the monthly expiry and Nifty rebalancing activity. The market struggled to generate sustained momentum and eventually ended marginally lower, weighed down by the absence of strong global cues and persistent selling pressure from the FII desk. The Sensex slipped 20.46 points (-0.02%) to close at 84,675.08, while the Nifty declined marginally by 3.25 points (-0.01%), settling at 25,938.85, reflecting a lack of directional conviction throughout the session. On the sectoral front, Nifty Metal, Auto, and PSU Bank stocks provided relative support and contributed positively to the index. However, this strength was offset by profit booking in Realty, Consumer Durables, and IT stocks, which capped the upside and kept the benchmarks confined within a narrow range. The broader market also remained under pressure, with risk appetite staying subdued. The Nifty Midcap index closed lower by 0.15%, while the Nifty Small cap index underperformed, declining by 0.28%.

Nifty Outlook

The index formed a bullish pinbar candlestick, indicating buying interest at lower levels after four consecutive sessions of decline, largely due to intraday volatility around the monthly F&O expiry. As anticipated, the index is now consolidating, with price action driven mainly by stock-specific movements. This phase is likely to continue, extending the consolidation of the past four weeks within a broad 25,700–26,300 range. A decisive breakout or breakdown from this zone will define the next directional move. A sustained move above 26,300 could trigger further upside, with potential targets near 26,500 in the coming weeks. On the hourly chart, the RSI had slipped into oversold territory and has rebounded, signaling the possibility of a short-term pullback from key supports. Immediate support is placed at 25,700–25,800, coinciding with the month’s lows & also the 50-day EMA. Holding above this band keeps the near-term outlook neutral to mildly positive.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The index formed a bullish engulfing candlestick, signaling strong buying interest from key support zones and a close above the highs of the previous two sessions. Looking ahead, the index is likely to stay in a consolidation mode and gradually form a base within the 58,500–60,100 range over the coming weeks. A decisive breakout above the past two weeks’ high of 59,500 which is also intermediate resistance could open the door for a renewed upside toward the recent all-time high near 60,100 in the upcoming trading sessions ahead. The sharp rally seen over the last two months continues to remain well-contained within a rising price channel, underscoring sustained demand even at elevated levels.

On the downside, strong support is placed in the 58,300–58,600 zone, aligning with the 50-day EMA and the prior breakout area. Holding above this support band would keep the broader trend positive.

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