18-04-2024 12:39 PM | Source: Kotak Institutional Equities
Kotak Strategy: Manifesto analysis: Some similarities, some differences

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Manifesto analysis: Some similarities, some differences

The BJP manifesto for the 2024 general elections emphasizes (1) continuation of existing policies, (2) India as a global manufacturing hub and (3) adequate social support for the needy. Meanwhile, the Congress manifesto envisages (1) the creation of jobs through a new economic policy and government-led employment, (2) a legal guarantee for MSPs and (3) cash transfers to the needy, education loan waiver and an increase in reservations.

A tale of two manifestos

The election manifestos of the BJP and Congress showcase the visions of the incumbent and the challenger, with the BJP manifesto expectedly stressing its achievements in its past two terms over 2014-24 and the Congress manifesto expectedly highlighting the deficits of the past 10 years and its own achievements in its two terms over 2004-14. Exhibit 1 shows the key focus areas of BJP and Congress over the next five years.

BJP manifesto—Modi ki Guarantee

BJP manifesto highlights its (1) economic achievements in terms of growth and solid progress in infrastructure development and manufacturing and (2) social accomplishments under the different social welfare programs implemented by it in the past 10 years. The BJP manifesto commits to continuing with existing economic policies (Make in India, PLI) and social welfare schemes (including free ration for 800 mn people). It specifically stresses on its ambition to establish India as a global manufacturing hub across sectors in order to create jobs. Exhibit 2 shows the word cloud of the BJP manifesto.

Congress manifesto—Nyay Patra

Congress manifesto focuses on (1) a new economic policy (Nav Sankalp Economic Policy) to create jobs and reforms of industrial and labor laws to achieve its vision of full employment and greater productivity, (2) job creation through the facilitation of the private sector and reservation in the government sector—50% reservation of central government jobs for women, one-third reservation for women in state assemblies and Lok Sabha, constitutional amendment to raise the 50% cap on reservations for SC, ST and OBC and (3) larger role of the government in economic and social areas—higher wages under NREGA at Rs400/day, launch of a Mahalakshmi Scheme to provide Rs0.1 mn per year to every poor Indian family as an unconditional cash transfer among others.  Exhibit 3 shows the word cloud of the Congress manifesto.

A fun observation

The BJP manifesto makes no mention of the Congress in its 76 pages (English version), while the Congress manifesto has 38/55 references to BJP/NDA in its 48 pages (English version), which possibly highlights the different mindset and position of the two parties—one of an incumbent and the other of a challenger.

 

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