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Gold

Gold exhibited a 0.94% increase, reaching 61225, buoyed by a weakened U.S. dollar amid expectations of a paused Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Investors awaited central bank meeting minutes for additional policy insights. Anticipations of a dovish Fed in 2024 led to a U.S. dollar decline, aiding Gold's recovery from recent lows. The perception of slowing U.S. inflation further supported the expectation of a halted interest rate increase. U.S. existing home sales dropped 4.1% in October 2023 to 3.79 million units, below the forecast and the lowest since August 2010. Global silver production is projected to decline by 2% in 2023 to 820 million ounces, with Mexico and Peru experiencing reduced output. The Silver Institute attributed this to a 16 million ounce drop in Mexican production due to operational suspensions at Newmont’s Peñasquito during a labor strike. Market sentiment suggests the Fed will maintain rates in December, with a 60% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut by May 2024, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. From a technical standpoint, Gold is undergoing short covering, with a 5.72% decrease in open interest to 6760, while prices rose by 568 rupees. Support for Gold stands at 60900, with a potential test of 60575 below this level. Resistance is anticipated at 61455, and a breakthrough could see prices testing 61685.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 60575-61685.
* Gold gains as the market gets support from disappointing home sales data.
* Existing home sales declined 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate 3.79 million units last month
* Swiss gold exports hit 5 – month high on Indian festive demand

Silver

Silver prices showed a notable uptrend, closing 0.91% higher at 73304, buoyed by disappointing home sales data in the market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 4.1% decline in existing home sales to an annualized rate of 3.79 million units, reflecting a drop from September's rate of 3.95 million homes. This downturn in the housing market contributed to silver's positive momentum. The US central bank is expected to maintain unchanged rates in December, with a 30% market anticipation of rate cuts starting in March 2024. The People’s Bank of China held its one and five-year loan prime rates steady at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively, aligning with expectations. Meanwhile, Swiss gold exports surged in October, reaching the highest level since May, driven by increased deliveries to India during the festive season. India's gold imports in October rose by 60% year-on-year, reaching a 31-month high due to lower prices before a major festival, prompting heightened purchases by jewellers. Technically, the silver market witnessed fresh buying, with a 1.3% increase in open interest to settle at 14884. Prices rose by 660 rupees, finding support at 72695. A breach below this level could test 72095, while resistance is expected at 73805, with a potential move above leading to a test of 74315.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 72095-74315.
* Silver rose as dollar dipped on expectations that Fed is done with hiking interest rates
* Signs of slowing inflation in US have boosted expectations that the central bank was done raising interest rates.
* Lower silver output in Peru, Mexico to drag down global production

Crude oil

Crude oil prices experienced a decline of -1.15%, settling at 6468, as investors adopted a cautious stance due to concerns about weaker demand and a potential global economic slowdown. This caution is particularly evident as traders monitor key economic indicators from the US and China, both major oil consumers. Over the past two sessions, oil prices surged more than 6%, driven by growing expectations that OPEC+ will implement further supply cuts during its upcoming meeting on Nov. 26. Anticipation is high for Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary cuts into early next year. The recent increase in oil prices was also influenced by a substantial drop in the dollar, making dollar-priced commodities more appealing to foreign buyers. The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted the oil market's cautious stance amid the Middle East crisis, stating that the conflict in Gaza has not significantly impacted market prices. However, the IEA head noted that direct involvement of oil-producing countries in the region could have implications for the market. On the domestic front, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a projected decline in oil output from top shale-producing regions for December, marking a second consecutive monthly decrease. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing long liquidation, evidenced by a -1.85% drop in open interest, settling at 11143. Crude oil prices declined by -75 rupees. The current support level is at 6426, with a potential test of 6383 if this support is breached. Resistance is anticipated at 6506, and a move above could lead to a test of 6543.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6383-6543.
* Crude oil dropped as investors remained cautious about the prospect of weaker demand and a global economic slowdown.
* Oil market on edge over Middle East crisis, IEA's Birol says
* Markets expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to roll over additional voluntary cuts into early next year.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices experienced a decline of -1.16%, settling at 238.7, primarily driven by abundant storage levels, record production, and diminished demand. US gas stockpiles were already 6% above normal in mid-November, expected to reach 7% above normal by November 17. This surplus is attributed to high natural gas production and milder winter weather, leading to reduced heating demand. Forecasts predict a 4% decrease in heating degree days compared to the prior 10-year average, contributing to a 2% drop in space heating consumption. The approaching Thanksgiving holiday also anticipates a traditional demand slowdown. In November, average gas output rose to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing the October record. Looking ahead, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record-high natural gas production and demand in 2023. Dry gas production is expected to reach 103.68 billion cubic feet per day in 2023 and 105.12 billion cubic feet per day in 2024. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -4.4% drop in open interest to settle at 37472. Natural gas prices declined by -2.8 rupees. Support is identified at 236.2, with a potential test of 233.7 if this level is breached. Resistance is anticipated at 242.7, and a move above could lead to a test of 246.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 233.7-246.7.
* Natural gas dropped due to ample storage levels, record production and lower demand.
* US gas stockpiles were already about 6% above normal
* EIA attributes abundant inventories to high natural gas production and warmer-than-average winter weather


Copper

Copper prices saw a marginal decline of -0.06% to settle at 717.2, influenced by the global refined copper market, which reported a deficit of 55,000 metric tons in September, a notable increase from the 21,000 metric tons deficit in August, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). However, the market still maintained a surplus of 17,000 metric tons for the first 9 months of the year, contrasting with a 401,000 metric tons deficit in the same period last year. September's deficit, adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventory, stood in contrast to the surplus in August. Goldman Sachs revised its copper market deficit forecast for the current year to 93kt, down from the previous estimate of 147kt, and anticipates a modest deficit of 155kt next year, compared to the prior forecast of 201kt. The projection is based on an expected increase in global mine supply, particularly from countries like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). On the regulatory front, Chinese authorities, including the People's Bank of China, are developing a lending support "whitelist" for 50 property developers. Technically, the copper market is undergoing long liquidation, evident in an -11.02% drop in open interest to settle at 3117. Copper prices declined by -0.4 rupees. Support is identified at 715.5, with a potential test of 713.8 if breached. Resistance is likely at 719.1, and a move above could lead to a test of 721.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 713.8-721.
* Copper prices steadied as the global refined copper market showed a 55,000 metric tons deficit in September.
* Chinese regulators including the People's Bank of China are drafting a "whitelist" lending support to 50 property developers.
* China's refined copper production in October jumped 13.3% to 11.3 million metric tons year-on-year

Zinc

Zinc prices closed at 226.3, registering a -0.72% decline, driven by substantial deliveries to LME registered warehouses in Singapore. LME data revealed a significant increase in zinc stocks, rising by 9,300 tons to reach 142,750 tons, more than doubling since November 15 and hitting the highest level since late August. Citi's delivery of over 60,000 tons in a profitable rent-sharing deal last week added further pressure on the market. China's central bank and financial regulators emphasized their commitment to provide financing support for the property sector and address local government debt risks. This comes as Chinese leaders work to rejuvenate the economy and mitigate potential financial risks arising from a property market slowdown and substantial local government debt of 92 trillion yuan ($12.77 trillion). In October, China's refined zinc output exceeded expectations, reaching 604,600 metric tons, showcasing a 11.14% month-on-month growth and a substantial 17.6% year-on-year increase. Domestic zinc alloy production in October also witnessed a notable increase, reaching 98,180 metric tons. Despite fears of potential output cuts in Yunnan due to power rationing, the downside in the zinc market appears limited. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with a -14.48% drop in open interest to settle at 2050. Zinc prices declined by -1.65 rupees, with support at 224.9, potentially testing 223.6 if breached. Resistance is anticipated at 227.8, and a move above could lead to a test of 229.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 223.6-229.4.
* Zinc fell after LME data showed large deliveries to LME registered warehouses in Singapore
* Zinc stocks in LME warehouses rose 9,300 tons to 142,750 tons.
* Zinc stocks have more than doubled since Nov. 15 and are at their highest since late August.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices showed a modest increase of 0.12%, settling at 205.7, driven by optimism regarding potential stimulus measures for China's property sector. Chinese regulators, including the People's Bank of China, are working on a "whitelist" lending support for 50 property developers, enhancing market sentiment. However, concerns arose as smelters in Yunnan province began cutting 1.15 million tons of capacity to comply with power curbs lasting until April, impacting around 12% of China's total aluminium capacity. Global primary aluminium output in October increased by 3.9% year-on-year to 6.116 million tonnes, as reported by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). China's aluminium imports rose for the fifth consecutive month in October, reaching 351,065 metric tons, a 5.8% increase from September and a substantial 78.7% surge from the previous year. This rise is attributed to solid demand and expectations of reduced domestic supply. Technically, the aluminium market is experiencing short covering, with a -12.22% drop in open interest to settle at 2091. Aluminium prices increased by 0.25 rupees. Support is identified at 204.8, potentially testing 203.9 if breached. Resistance is likely at 206.5, with a move above indicating a potential test of 207.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.9-207.3.
* Aluminium gains on optimism for further stimulus measures for the property sector in China.
* Chinese regulators including the People's Bank of China are drafting a "whitelist" lending support to 50 property developers.
* Global aluminium output rises 3.9% year on year in October – IAI

Cotton candy

Cotton candy prices experienced a decline of -0.46%, settling at 56700, driven by profit booking after recent support. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) projected a 7.5% decrease in India's cotton production for 2023/24 to 29.5 million bales, attributed to reduced planted area and the impact of El Nino weather conditions. CAI also anticipated an increase in imports to 2.2 million bales from the previous year's 1.25 million bales. The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2023/24 indicated slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks. Production was revised higher to 13.1 million bales, with ending stocks at 3.2 million bales, representing 22.5% of use. The global cotton balance sheet for the same period included lower consumption but higher production and stocks, with India's production estimate for 2022/23 increasing based on data from the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption. CAI released its final estimate for the 2022-23 cotton crop production, slightly higher at 31.8 million bales compared to the initial estimate of 34.4 million bales. However, this remains below the government's third advance estimate of 34.3 million bales. In north Maharashtra, cotton production is expected to decline by 25% due to inadequate rainfall, impacting approximately 10 lakh hectares of cultivated land. In the Rajkot spot market, a significant trading hub, cotton candy prices ended at 27102.1 Rupees, reflecting a -0.52% drop. Technically, the cotton candy market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -3.37% drop in open interest to settle at 86. Prices decreased by -260 rupees. Support is identified at 56540, potentially testing 56380 if breached, while resistance is likely at 56880, with a move above possibly leading to a test of 57060.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56380-57060.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gains as India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%
* Cotton production likely to decline by 25% in north Maha
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 27102.1 Rupees dropped by -0.52 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices experienced a decline of -1.26%, settling at 12338, primarily driven by concerns among farmers in Maharashtra over the location of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana. Slower buying activities were observed as farmers anticipated the release of stocks ahead of the new crops in January 2024. Pressure on prices also stemmed from improved crop conditions due to favorable weather, with harvest expected between January and March. The IMD projected drier-than-average conditions in October, impacting crop growth, but current buying levels and decreasing supplies are expected to sustain price stability. Export opportunities have improved, leading to a 25% increase in turmeric exports. Expectations of a 20–25% decline in turmeric seeding this year, particularly in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, are attributed to shifting farmer priorities. However, downside risks are limited due to potential yield losses caused by unfavorable weather conditions for the crop. In September 2023, turmeric exports were 9,085.81 tonnes, showing a drop of 19.75% from August 2023 and 35.06% from September 2022. In the Nizamabad spot market, a significant trading hub, turmeric prices ended at 13337.15 Rupees, gaining 0.16%. Technically, the turmeric market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -3.66% drop in open interest to settle at 11980. Prices decreased by -158 rupees. Support is identified at 12012, potentially testing 11688 if breached, while resistance is likely at 12750, with a move above possibly leading to a test of 13164.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11688-13164.
* Turmeric dropped after PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana sparks farmer concerns in Maharashtra over HQ location.
* In Sep 2023 around 9,085.81 tonnes exported as against 11,322.58 tonnes in Aug 2023 showing a drop of 19.75%.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13337.15 Rupees gained by 0.16 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices recorded a 0.5% increase, settling at 45830, driven by low-level buying following a recent drop in prices. Adequate soil moisture and favorable weather conditions are expected to boost overall sowing activities for jeera. Stockists are showing interest in buying due to the recent price downfall, triggering short covering. However, global demand for Indian jeera has slumped, as buyers prefer other destinations like Syria and Turkey due to higher prices in India. Export seasonality indicates that Indian jeera prices remain competitive globally, but exporters face challenges due to current market dynamics, potentially keeping export activity subdued in the coming weeks. Jeera exports during April-September 2023 dropped by 29.79% to 76,969.88 tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. In September 2023, jeera exports were 7,190.83 tonnes, showing an 11.02% drop from August 2023 and a significant 60.27% drop from September 2022. In the major spot market of Unjha, jeera prices ended at 46723.7 Rupees, gaining 0.24%. Technically, the jeera market is undergoing short covering, with a -8.26% drop in open interest to settle at 3666. Prices increased by 230 rupees. Support is identified at 45160, potentially testing 44500 if breached, while resistance is likely at 46740, with a move above possibly leading to a test of 47660.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 44500-47660.
* Jeera gained  on low level buying after prices dropped as favorable condition for crop will boost the overall sowing activities.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 46723.7 Rupees gained by 0.24 percent.