Jeera trading range for the day is 21240-22020 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices declined by 1.48% to settle at Rs151,671, pressured by easing geopolitical risk sentiment as markets awaited potential U.S.–Iran peace talks. The upcoming expiry of the two-week ceasefire also kept uncertainty elevated but failed to support safe-haven demand. Additionally, stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data (+1.7% vs. 1.4% forecast) further reduced gold’s appeal, reflecting resilient economic momentum. On the global trade front, Swiss gold exports surged 30% MoM in March, driven by higher shipments to the UK and China, while supplies to India dropped sharply due to subdued domestic demand and import restrictions. Indian physical demand remained weak ahead of Akshaya Tritiya due to elevated prices, with mixed premiums and discounts across markets. Meanwhile, China’s central bank continued its buying streak, adding 160,000 ounces in March, marking the 17th consecutive month of accumulation, highlighting long-term structural support despite short-term price corrections. From a technical perspective, the market shows fresh selling pressure with open interest rising by 3.11% to 8,660, indicating active short buildup. Immediate support is placed at Rs150,720, with further downside potential towards Rs149,770. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs153,305, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards Rs154,940.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 149770-154940.
* Gold dropped as investors waited to see if the U.S. and Iran are meeting this week for peace talks.
* The two-week ceasefire to the conflict that has killed thousands and roiled the global economy, is set to expire this week.
* Gold exports from Switzerland up 30% m/m in March as deliveries to UK jump
.Silver
Silver prices saw a sharp decline of 3.11%, settling at Rs244,701, as markets balanced hopes of potential US-Iran negotiations against rising geopolitical tensions. Comments from US President Donald Trump about possible military action after the ceasefire expiry added uncertainty, while ongoing conflict-driven inflation concerns raised expectations of tighter monetary policy, weighing on precious metals. Strong US retail sales data, which rose 1.7% in March, further reduced silver’s safe-haven appeal. Despite the price drop, underlying demand trends remained supportive. China reported record silver imports of around 836 metric tonnes in March—nearly three times the 10-year average. This surge was driven by strong retail investment demand, as investors turned to silver as a more affordable alternative to gold, along with aggressive stockpiling by the solar (PV) industry ahead of tax changes. Higher domestic prices in China also encouraged global shipments into the region. Meanwhile, London vault holdings rose 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, reflecting steady institutional positioning. On the technical front, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 0.9% to 5,802. Silver has immediate support at Rs240,970, and a break below could push prices toward Rs237,245. Resistance is seen at Rs250,195, with a potential upside move toward Rs255,695 if this level is crossed.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 237245-255695.
* Silver remained under pressure as investors weighed potential US-Iran negotiations against escalating tensions.
* US President Donald Trump warned he "expects to be bombing" Iran once the ceasefire expires on Wednesday.
* Strong US economic data reduced safe-haven appeal: retail sales jumped 1.7% in March, the most in a year.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices moved higher by 3.09% to settle at Rs8,437, supported by tightening global supply conditions. Russia is expected to cut output by 300,000–400,000 barrels per day in April and will halt certain exports via the Druzhba pipeline from May, adding to supply concerns. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly 20% of global oil flows, have further intensified worries about availability, with European officials warning of potential fuel shortages this summer. On the demand side, China’s crude imports remained strong. Imports from Russia rose 14% year-on-year, while shipments from Brazil surged sharply, highlighting China’s aggressive buying strategy. However, imports from Saudi Arabia dropped significantly, reflecting shifting trade dynamics. Saudi output also fell to its lowest level since 2020 due to conflict-related disruptions. In the US, crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 913,000 barrels, with sharp draws in gasoline and distillates indicating firm consumption, even as refinery activity slowed. OPEC has slightly trimmed its second-quarter demand forecast by 500,000 bpd, citing temporary weakness linked to geopolitical tensions, though it expects recovery in the second half of the year. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 9.25% to 12,050. Immediate support is seen at Rs8,106, with further downside to Rs7,775. Resistance stands at Rs8,684, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs8,931.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7775-8931.
* Crude oil gained after Russia has been forced to reduce oil output in April by nearly 300,000 to 400,000 bpd.
* Russia is also set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline from May 1.
* North Dakota oil production up 4,000 bpd in February vs January to 1,130,000 bpd
Natural gas
Natural gas edged slightly higher by 0.24% to settle at Rs252.3, supported by a recent dip in production and strong flows to U.S. LNG export facilities. However, gains remained limited as markets weighed expectations of softer demand in the coming weeks and optimism around a potential easing of Middle East tensions. On the supply side, U.S. output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 110.4 bcfd so far in April, unchanged from March levels, though daily production has slipped by nearly 3.9 bcfd over the past two weeks to an 11-week low. At the same time, demand is expected to ease, with projections showing a decline from 103.3 bcfd this week to 101.1 bcfd next week. Storage data also added pressure, with a larger-than-expected build of 59 bcf, well above both last year’s increase and the five-year average, largely due to mild weather reducing heating demand. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects production to hit record highs through 2027, while demand may see a slight dip in 2026 before recovering. LNG exports, however, are projected to continue rising steadily. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 13.6% to 23,872. Support is seen at Rs248.4, with a downside target of Rs244.5, while resistance stands at Rs255.2. A breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs258.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 244.5-258.1.
* Natural gas gains amid a drop in output and near-record gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants.
* U.S. gas output drops to 11-week low, inventories rise to 7% above normal
* LNG export flows near record highs; Golden Pass facility to soon ship first cargo
Copper
Copper prices slipped slightly by 0.34% to settle at Rs1,265.05, as investors stayed cautious ahead of potential U.S.–Iran peace talks and key signals from the Federal Reserve on interest rates. The Yangshan premium, which reflects China’s import demand, remained firm at $69 per ton, indicating underlying support despite a slight cooling from recent highs. On the supply side, inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped sharply by 9.8% week-on-week and are down nearly 45% since mid-March, pointing to tightening near-term availability. Globally, production trends were mixed—Rio Tinto reported a 9% rise in output, while Peru posted modest growth. In contrast, Chile saw declines, with Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mine reporting lower production, though Collahuasi recorded a strong increase. The global refined copper market remained in surplus, but the excess narrowed significantly to 17,000 tons in January. China’s trade data showed some weakness, with copper imports falling both on a monthly and quarterly basis. However, refined copper production in the country rose 8.7% year-on-year, highlighting steady domestic output. From a technical standpoint, the market is seeing long liquidation, with open interest down 4.24% to 7,816. Immediate support is at Rs1,259.3, with further downside to Rs1,253.4. Resistance is placed at Rs1,273, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,280.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1253.4-1280.8.
* Copper prices lacked direction as investors waited for news on peace talks between US and Iran.
* China March refined copper output climbs 8.7% y/y
* Rio Tinto Q1 copper output rises 9% on Oyu Tolgoi ramp – up
Zinc
Zinc prices moved higher by 0.88% to settle at Rs343.45, supported by tightening supply conditions. A notable drop in LME inventories to a one-month low, along with declining treatment charges for zinc concentrates, triggered short covering and lifted prices. Continued drawdowns in Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories and ongoing mine disruptions further reinforced concerns around near-term supply tightness. At the same time, improving industrial activity in China added to the positive sentiment, with factory data returning to expansion and boosting demand expectations for base metals. China’s central bank also signaled a supportive monetary stance, while rising factory-gate prices hinted at increasing cost pressures within the industrial sector. However, gains were somewhat capped by broader concerns about the global economic impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran. On the supply front, developments remain mixed. While Peru reported a sharp monthly drop in zinc concentrate output, global data showed the market shifting into a modest surplus in January. Additionally, new supply from projects like Boliden’s Tara mine restart and Ivanhoe’s Kipushi ramp-up could keep the market balanced in the near term. Technically, the market indicates fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 3.91% to 2,127. Support is seen at Rs339.7, with further downside at Rs335.8, while resistance stands at Rs346.1. A breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs348.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 335.8-348.6.
* Zinc gained as support seen after LME zinc inventory fell by 3,475 mt to 107,525 mt, hitting a one-month low.
* Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to decline, indicating tightening physical availability.
* Global zinc market swings to surplus in February, ILZSG says
Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged slightly higher by 0.08% to settle at Rs365.3, supported by ongoing supply concerns. LME inventories continued to decline, while significant production cuts across major Middle East producers such as EGA, Alba, and Qatalum have tightened global supply. These disruptions, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainty around US-Iran tensions, have kept risk premiums elevated and lent support to prices. Physical market indicators also reflect tightening conditions. Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports dropped 7.4% month-on-month, while premiums for April–June shipments surged to their highest levels in over a decade. Analysts at JP Morgan expect the market to remain in a substantial deficit in 2026, driven largely by supply losses from the Middle East, with prices potentially moving higher in the coming months. On the supply side, production trends remain mixed. While global aluminium output rose slightly year-on-year in March, daily production rates declined, particularly in the Gulf region. In China, both imports and production increased, highlighting steady domestic demand even as global supply risks persist. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by 10.04% to 1,999. Immediate support is seen at Rs363, with further downside to Rs360.6. Resistance stands at Rs367.8, and a break above this level could push prices toward Rs370.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 360.6-370.2.
* Aluminium gains as LME aluminium inventory continued to decline, with the latest level at 393,800 mt, reinforcing supply concerns.
* China's March aluminium imports rise 6.9% y/y, customs data shows
* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 279,800 metric tons at the end of March, down about 7.4% from the previous month.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices edged higher by 0.4% to settle at Rs16,166, supported by tight arrivals in key mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana during the peak season. Limited inflows, combined with quality issues like rhizome rot in low-lying areas, have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-grade material. In major hubs such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are holding back supplies, expecting prices to move towards the Rs18,000 mark. High-quality “Salem Fali” continues to command strong premiums, trading close to Rs20,000 per quintal. Fundamentally, the market remains firm due to lower carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags versus over 20 lakh bags last season. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from Europe and steady buying interest from Bangladesh are further supporting sentiment. Although January exports declined 19% YoY, overall exports for Apr–Jan are slightly higher, indicating stable medium-term demand. Imports, meanwhile, have dropped sharply, reflecting reduced reliance on overseas supply. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with a slight rise in open interest alongside price gains. Immediate support is seen at Rs15,908, with a downside towards Rs15,650 if breached. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs16,332, and a move above this level could push prices towards Rs16,498.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15650-16498.
* Turmeric prices gained as arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana have remained lower than normal.
* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.
* Growing orders for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from the EU are supporting prices for compliant stocks.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15890.8 Rupees gained by 0.36 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices eased by 0.67% to settle at Rs21,590, as steady arrivals of around 28,500 bags in Unjha continued to cap the upside. Despite this, arrivals remain lower on a year-on-year basis, indicating tighter spot availability. Weather disruptions have significantly impacted the crop—heatwaves in Gujarat during the final stages have led to shriveled grains, while hailstorms and unseasonal rains in Rajasthan and North-West India have damaged crops and delayed processing, affecting the supply of premium “A-grade” and Sortex-quality jeera. On the production front, output is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat has seen a sharp decline due to lower acreage and yields, along with disease issues like blight, while Rajasthan’s crop outlook is relatively better. Globally, production in countries like China, Syria, and Turkey is also facing weather-related challenges. However, export demand remains weak, with January shipments down 48% YoY and overall exports declining 15% for Apr–Jan, limiting bullish momentum despite supply concerns. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, as open interest declined alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs21,420, with a further downside towards Rs21,240 if breached. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs21,810, and a move above this level could push prices towards Rs22,020.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21240-22020.
* Jeera prices fell as steady Unjha arrivals near 28,500 bags capped upside potential
* Intense heatwaves in Gujarat during the final maturation stage have resulted in shriveled grains, reducing the supply of bold-grade Jeera.
* Outbreaks of blight disease in key Gujarat pockets have reduced the quality and quantity of the harvestable crop.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21674.05 Rupees dropped by -0.23 percent.
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