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Gold

Gold declined by 0.51% to settle at 152,652, as investors remained cautious while tracking Middle East developments and evaluating the latest US inflation data. March CPI rose sharply by 0.9%, the biggest monthly increase since June 2022, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%. However, core CPI increased only slightly to 2.6%, indicating that the broader impact of higher energy prices is still unfolding. The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes reflected a more hawkish tone, with several policymakers open to further rate hikes if inflation continues to stay above the 2% target, especially amid geopolitical tensions. Although a temporary ceasefire has paused direct conflict, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and tensions involving Lebanon continue to keep uncertainty elevated. On the demand side, India has seen a mild pickup ahead of the festive buying season, particularly with Akshaya Tritiya approaching, though higher prices are limiting aggressive buying. In contrast, premiums in China have softened, reflecting weaker retail demand. Meanwhile, China’s central bank continues to support the market, extending its gold purchases for the 17th consecutive month. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.63% to 7,579, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is seen at 151,835, with a break below likely to test 151,020. On the upside, resistance is placed at 153,375, and a move above this level could push prices toward 154,100.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151020-154100.

* Gold dropped as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and assess the latest US CPI report.

* Data showed that U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years in March.

* Gold demand in India picked up slightly ahead of a key festival, although elevated prices weighed on sentiment.

Silver

Silver edged lower by 0.2% to settle at 243,274, as markets remained cautious amid ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad. The recent two-week ceasefire between the two nations initially eased concerns around energy-driven inflation, especially after oil prices cooled sharply. However, the situation remains fragile, with renewed Israeli strikes in Lebanon and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz casting uncertainty over the truce. On the macro front, the latest US inflation data kept investors on edge. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, pushing annual inflation to 3.3%, the highest since May 2024. Core inflation, however, remained relatively contained at 0.2% on a monthly basis. The Fed’s preferred PCE index stood at 2.8% for February and is expected to tick higher, keeping the central bank cautious. Markets are currently pricing in a modest 31% probability of a rate cut by December. From a supply perspective, silver holdings in London vaults rose 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes by the end of March, indicating comfortable availability in the physical market. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 0.66% to 5,742, suggesting new short positions. Immediate support is seen at 240,200, with a break below likely to test 237,120. On the upside, resistance stands at 245,705, and a move above this level could push prices toward 248,130.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 237120-248130.

* Silver dropped as investor focus on US-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad.

* US CPI report showed inflation at 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, with a 0.9% monthly jump, the steepest since mid-2022.

* Markets are pricing in a 31% chance for a U.S. rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's December meeting.

Crude oil

Crude oil gained 2.46% to settle at 9,153, supported by ongoing concerns over tight global supplies, particularly from Saudi Arabia, and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a temporary pause in escalation, the flow of oil through this key route remains heavily restricted, keeping global prices elevated and physical market premiums near record levels. On the supply side, Russia indicated that its oil production could rise slightly to around 515 million metric tons this year, although export capacity remains under pressure due to infrastructure disruptions linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions. At the same time, Japan plans to release additional oil reserves starting May, adding to earlier measures aimed at stabilizing supply amid heavy dependence on Middle Eastern crude. In the US, inventory data showed a mixed picture. Crude stockpiles rose by 3.1 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined, pointing to steady demand. Lower refinery activity and reduced imports also influenced stock movements during the week. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by 8.07% to 7,686 while prices moved higher, indicating unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is seen at 9,008, with a break below likely to test 8,863. On the upside, resistance is placed at 9,321, and a move above this level could push prices toward 9,489.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8863-9489.

* Crude oil gains on concerns over supplies from Saudi Arabia and limited flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

* Russia's Novak sees country's oil output at 515 mln T in 2026, up from 2025

* Japan plans new oil stockpile release from early May, PM Takaichi says

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped 0.76% to settle at 248.7, pressured by a slightly higher-than-expected storage build and forecasts pointing to milder weather and softer demand in the near term. The latest data showed a 50 bcf injection into storage, marginally above expectations, signaling a comfortable supply situation as the industry moves into the injection season. Weather remains a key factor, with temperatures expected to stay warmer than normal through April 24, limiting both heating and cooling demand. As a result, overall gas consumption is projected to fall from 108.1 bcfd this week to around 100.1 bcfd next week. At the same time, production remains strong, with output in the Lower 48 states averaging over 111 bcfd in April, close to record highs, although short-term dips have been seen due to regional declines. Geopolitical developments, including ongoing US-Iran discussions, continue to be monitored, but their impact on US gas prices remains limited due to robust domestic supply and export capacity constraints. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 2.99% to 41,363, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is seen at 246.3, with a break below likely to test 243.8. On the upside, resistance stands at 252, and a move above this level could push prices toward 255.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 243.8-255.2.

* Natural gas slid on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage build last week and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand.

* The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 111.1 bcfd so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March.

Copper

Copper prices rose 1.44% to settle at 1,210.15, supported mainly by a sharp drop in inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which fell 11.5% over the past week. The decline in stocks indicates improving near-term demand, even as global markets remain cautious. Investors are closely tracking developments around US-Iran negotiations, as geopolitical tensions continue to influence sentiment. While the recent ceasefire helped ease fears of a deeper global slowdown, uncertainty persists due to ongoing disputes involving oil flows and regional conflicts. At the same time, China’s latest data showed factory-gate prices rising for the first time in over three years, highlighting increasing cost pressures in the industrial sector, particularly in non-ferrous metals. However, the broader supply picture remains comfortable. Combined inventories across LME and Comex have surged above 900,000 tons, creating a wider discount in the cash market and indicating no immediate shortage. Additionally, Chinese smelters are expected to maintain or even increase production in 2026, while global institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citi are projecting a surplus market and softer prices ahead. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 0.81% to 9,137 while prices moved higher. Copper is holding support at 1,197, with a break below potentially testing 1,183.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,219.4, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,228.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1183.8-1228.6.

* Copper gains as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 11.5% from last Friday

* Chinese inflation data showed that factory-gate prices rose in March for the first time in more than three years.

* Copper are stocks in warehouses registered with the LME and Comex above 900,000 tons, double the level since the start of the year.

Zinc

Zinc edged slightly higher by 0.05% to settle at 331, supported by improving industrial activity and signs of near-term supply tightness. China’s factory activity returning to expansion has lifted demand expectations for base metals, while a 1.7% drop in inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and ongoing mine disruptions have kept supply conditions relatively firm. However, gains remained limited due to persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including fresh strikes in Lebanon and concerns over the stability of the ceasefire, have weighed on the broader demand outlook for industrial metals. At the same time, global macro concerns continue to linger, even as China maintains an accommodative policy stance to support growth. On the supply side, the restart of key mining operations such as Tara and the ramp-up at Kipushi are expected to keep the market in a modest surplus. This aligns with global estimates, including projections of a small surplus this year, despite steady demand growth of around 2%. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest declining by 1.29% to 1,985 while prices inched higher. Zinc is holding support at 330, with a break below potentially testing 328.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at 332.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 333.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 328.8-333.4.

* Zinc gained supported by improving industrial activity and signs of short-term supply tightness.

* Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 1.7% over the past week, and ongoing mine closures.

* China’s industrial recovery, with output rising 6.3% yoy in the first two months of 2026 and fixed-asset investment showing modest improvement.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices moved higher, settling up by 0.97% at 357.7, supported by optimism that the US-Iran ceasefire could hold and eventually lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Supply concerns also remained in focus after Emirates Global Aluminium indicated that full restoration of its Al Taweelah smelter may take up to a year following recent disruptions. This has tightened near-term availability, reflected in the LME cash premium rising to $81 per ton, the highest since 2007. At the same time, inventory trends present a mixed picture. While LME stocks have declined to their lowest levels since July 2025, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have climbed to a six-year high of 474,332 tons, suggesting cautious buying from consumers. Globally, primary aluminium output rose 0.9% year-on-year in February, with China continuing to increase production amid improved margins, even as its imports declined. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 3.56% to 3,201 lots alongside a price gain of  Rs.3.45. Aluminium is currently finding support at 354.8, with a break below potentially testing 351.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 359.6, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards 361.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 351.7-361.3.

* Aluminium gains supported by optimism that US-Iran ceasefire will hold and eventually lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

* Emirates Global Aluminium said that fully restoring production at its Al Taweelah smelter, could take up to a year.

* The premium for LME cash aluminium contract over the three-month contract was last at $81 a ton, its highest since 2007.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices eased by 1.3% to settle at 16,148, as traders and stockists booked profits after the recent rally. This decline came despite lower-than-normal arrivals in key mandis, as many farmers continue to hold back stocks in anticipation of better prices ahead. Weather disruptions, including unseasonal rains and disease pressure in Maharashtra and Telangana, have impacted yields, with nearly 15% crop damage reported in some pockets. Production for the 2025–26 season is estimated around 11.41 lakh tonnes, while dried output is seen at 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last year. Higher acreage, up about 4% year-on-year, has partly offset yield losses, although lower carry-forward stocks are keeping overall supply tight. Quality concerns like rhizome rot and aflatoxin risks persist in some regions. Meanwhile, export trends remain mixed—January shipments fell 19% year-on-year, but cumulative exports are slightly higher, indicating stable underlying demand. On the technical front, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 3.42% to 15,275 while prices dropped by  Rs.212. Turmeric has immediate support at 16,014, with further downside towards 15,880 if this level breaks. On the upside, resistance is seen at 16,370, and a move above this could push prices towards 16,592.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15880-16592.

* Turmeric dropped as traders and stockists are liquidating long positions after prices recently amid lower-than-normal arrivals.

* Short-term global demand momentum has softened, causing a temporary pile-up of domestic spice stocks.

* High prices prompted farmers to release their stored inventories before the peak season ends.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16217.35 Rupees dropped by -0.39 percent.

Jeera prices slipped by 1.48% to settle at 22,020, mainly due to fresh arrivals of the new crop and weak export demand. Comfortable supplies and subdued buying interest, particularly from China, have led to a build-up in domestic stocks. Farmers are actively selling in local markets to take advantage of current price levels, adding further pressure. However, the downside appears somewhat limited. Weather concerns are emerging, especially in North Gujarat, where rising temperatures and potential heatwaves could impact seed development in late-sown crops. Production is already expected to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes, with Gujarat seeing a sharp drop due to lower acreage and yields. While Rajasthan’s output may rise, overall supply risks remain due to erratic weather and pest issues like aphid infestation. Export performance continues to weigh on sentiment, with January shipments down 48% year-on-year and cumulative exports falling 15%, reflecting weak global demand. Despite tighter supplies in some producing countries, India’s export pace remains sluggish. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising sharply by 22.56% to 6,015 while prices fell by  Rs.330. Jeera has immediate support at 21,780, with a break below likely testing 21,530. On the upside, resistance is seen at 22,300, and a move above this could push prices towards 22,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21530-22570.

* Jeera dropped as increasing supplies of fresh cumin crops in Unjha and Rajasthan mandis are weighing down prices.

* Global buying interest, particularly from China, remains weak, leading to a domestic stock build-up.

* Farmers are rushing to liquidate stocks in local markets to capitalize on current rates.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21840.1 Rupees dropped by -0.07 percent.

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