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India’s rising domestic production of thermal coal and the slowdown in the Chinese economy are expected to exert downward pressure on the price of fossil fuel in Asian markets during 2025, according to an S&P Global report released on Thursday.  

India’s rising domestic supply and the government’s emphasis on reducing import dependency are likely to keep industrial purchases limited to the domestic market, the report states.  

Vignesh Sundaram, a principal research analyst with Commodity Insights, forecast total imports to reach around 206 million MT in 2025 due to increased capital spending on infrastructure. However, strong domestic production will likely keep overall imports stable, he noted.

The report also expects the slowdown in the Chinese economy to reduce the demand for coal in the international market.

China imported around 353 million metric tonnes (MT)of thermal coal so far in 2024, according to the latest data available in S&P Global Commodities at Sea. 

According to Pat See Khoo, a senior analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, the country is likely to import around 380 million mt of thermal coal in 2025, slightly less than 2024 imports amid stable domestic supply and moderate coal-based power generation growth.

An S&P Global Ratings report said the US is likely to increase export tariffs on Chinese goods in South Asia. 

“We assume the U.S. will raise the effective tariff on Chinese imports to 25 per cent from around 14 per cent currently, starting in the middle of 2025,” the report said. It also forecasts Chinese GDP growth at 4.1 per cent in 2025, 0.2 percentage points lower than the September baseline.          

Meanwhile, Indonesia is set to remain a cornerstone of the Asian thermal coal market in 2025, retaining its status as the world’s largest exporter. However, mid to small-sized miners could encounter challenges due to suppressed global coal prices amid China’s hard bargaining stance.

Australia’s position in the Asian thermal coal market remains strong in 2025, supported by mid-calorific vale (CV) coal demand from China. A structural supply shortfall in seaborne high-CV thermal coal due to underinvestment and depletion of existing reserves could lead to rising prices, according to the latest market outlook for Whitehaven coal.

Russia’s coal exports to Asia are anticipated to face significant challenges in 2025 due to infrastructure limitations and declining production in its major coal-producing area, Kuzbass. Despite these obstacles, Russia continues to be a key supplier of mid- to high-CV coal, particularly to China and South Korea, the report added.