India's private credit AUM may triple to $65 billion by 2030
India-focused private credit assets under management (AUM) projected to increase to $56-65 billion by 2030 from $21.8 billion in CY2025, representing nearly threefold increase and a compound annual growth rate of about 21-24 per cent, a report said on Wednesday.
The report from CareEdge Ratings said India's private credit market remains at an early stage of development, with penetration of only 0.6 per cent of GDP, compared with 4.4 per cent in the United States and 8.4 per cent in the United Kingdom, indicating substantial room for long-term growth.
India's credit-to-GDP ratio, which typically ranges between 90 per cent and 102 per cent, rose from 93.8 per cent in 2023 to 95.3 per cent in 2024 and 102.3 per cent in 2025, after declining to 88.3 per cent in 2022.
By comparison, developed economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia maintain credit-to-GDP ratios of between 140 per cent and 200 per cent.
Private credit is addressing the funding gap for mid-market, growth-stage and asset-light businesses underserved by traditional lenders, with growth being driven by tighter bank lending norms, increasing demand for bespoke financing solutions, a large refinancing opportunity, and strengthening insolvency and recovery framework.
“India’s Private Credit market is expected to reach $56-65 billion by 2030, supported by growing corporate demand for flexible capital beyond standardised lending products. Direct lending, venture debt, special situations and real-estate credit are expected to drive this expansion,” says Tanvi Shah, Senior Director, CareEdge Advisory.
Shah said disciplined underwriting, risk-adjusted pricing and strong covenant protection will be critical to converting market growth into sustainable returns
“Private credit is poised to coexist with, rather than replace, traditional lending channels, strengthening the financing ecosystem through flexible, customised solutions for underserved borrowers,” said Kalpesh Mantri, Assistant Director, CareEdge Advisory.
Direct lending, venture debt and real estate debt are expected to be the fastest-growing strategies in private credit in near future, the report noted.
