India`s merchandise exports seen at nearly $112 billion in Q1 FY27
India’s total merchandise exports are pegged at $111.9 billion during the April-June quarter of FY27, a marginal year-on-year growth, according to a report released on Wednesday.
According to the government-backed Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank)'s latest quarterly export outlook, non-oil exports are forecast at $97.8 billion during the first quarter of FY27, a growth of 3.5 per cent over the corresponding period last year.
Meanwhile, non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are estimated at $90.4 billion, a year-on-year growth of about 3 per cent during the same quarter.
The bank noted that growth in non-oil exports is expected to be supported by increasing geographical diversification of shipments, timely policy interventions and targeted emergency credit support measures.
It further added that recently concluded trade negotiations with select countries are likely to sustain growth momentum in non-oil export segments.
Moreover, India’s export outlook could also benefit from an expected pickup in global demand and favourable exchange rate movements, according to the report.
However, the bank cautioned that downside risks continue to persist due to global economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international commodity markets.
Notably, India Exim Bank releases quarterly forecasts for merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports through its in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) model.
The model has been developed to track and forecast the movement of India’s exports on a quarterly basis by assessing various domestic and global factors that could influence export performance.
The bank said the next export forecast for the July-September quarter of FY27 will be released during the first fortnight of August 2026.
