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The think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has indicated that India's merchandise exports, which have been contracting since October last year, are likely to decline slightly by the end of this fiscal year falling below $435 billion. The exports dipped 10.85 per cent in February to $36.91 billion owed to volatility in petroleum prices and global uncertainties. The GTRI expects, at this rate, India's total merchandise exports for FY'2025 to be below $435 billion, which is slightly lower than $437.1 billion in FY'2024.

During April-February 2024-25, the exports stood at $395.63 billion as against $395.38 billion in the corresponding period of 2023-24. The key sectors that recorded negative growth both in February and cumulatively include petroleum products, ceramic products and glassware, oil meals, oil seeds, gems and jewellery and iron ore. The GTRI has signalled a need for strategic interventions to support recovery of these sectors as they are facing consistent declines. Moreover, on declining exports, it added that the decline of 7.8 per cent in global crude oil prices from $83.5 per barrel in February 2024 to $77 per barrel in February 2025 has primarily resulted into exports falling by 29.23 per cent in February 2025 and 25.56 per cent over 11 months. It also added that a recovery in this sector will depend on global oil price trends and increased refining efficiency to maintain margins.

India's largest export segment, the engineering goods witnessed 8.62 per cent decline in February 2025, while recording a 7.97 per cent increase over 11 months. GTRI has suggested that the government can provide low-cost export credit to reduce financial pressure on exporters, and offer technology upgrade incentives to boost productivity and efficiency to support this sector. Further, the government can implement targeted policy measures to stabilise struggling sectors and improve overall export performance, ensuring India remains competitive in the global trade market.