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Domestic rating agency ICRA has projected India's GDP growth to moderate to a four quarter low of 6.7 per cent in March quarter of 2023-24 fiscal. For the full 2023-24 fiscal (Q4FY24), it estimates GDP growth to come in at 7.8 per cent. The Indian economy grew 8.2 per cent in the June quarter, 8.1 per cent in the September quarter and 8.4 per cent in the December quarter of 2023-24.

The GDP numbers for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and the provisional estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal are scheduled to be released on May 31. India's GDP expanded 6.1 per cent in the March quarter of 2022-23 fiscal, as per May 31, 2023 estimates. The growth for full fiscal 2022-23 was 7 per cent. Further, it said the gap between gross domestic product (GDP) and gross value added (GVA) growth is likely to moderate to 100 basis points (bps) in Q4 FY2024 from the particularly high of 185 bps in the previous quarter. This is on account of an expected lower expansion in the net indirect taxes in the March quarter owing to a narrower dip in the subsidy outgo.

ICRA Chief Economist, Head-Research & Outreach Aditi Nayar said the lower volume growth coupled with diminishing gains from commodity prices dampening the profitability of some of the industrial sectors is expected to dampen India's GVA growth in Q4 FY2024.