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The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has projected India’s sugar production for the 2024-25 season at 33.3 million tonnes gross, before ethanol diversion, and 29.3 million tonnes net, which is slightly lower than the previous season. With a carry-forward stock of 8.5 million tonnes, domestic supply will remain stable, supporting both consumption needs and the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP). ISMA’s estimate, derived from satellite and field data, aligns with government reports. Notably, Maharashtra's output may decrease, while Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh remain stable. Overall, ISMA anticipates sufficient stock levels to meet domestic demand and enable some exports.

Key Highlights

* ISMA projects net sugar production at 29.3 million tonnes, down from last season.

* Gross sugar production is estimated at 33.3 million tonnes, steady from preliminary estimates.

* A carry-forward stock of 8.5 million tonnes will ensure ample domestic supply.

* Government's satellite data reports a slight drop in sugarcane acreage but an increase in yield.

* State-wise, Maharashtra’s production may decline, while Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh remain steady.

India's sugar production forecast for the 2024-25 season stands at a gross figure of 33.3 million tonnes, as per the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA). This figure remains consistent with preliminary estimates released earlier. However, net production is expected at 29.3 million tonnes after accounting for ethanol diversion, a decrease from last year's output of 31.96 million tonnes. The slightly lower production forecast has been attributed to reduced sugarcane acreage, though yield improvements have moderated the impact.

Supporting the stable sugar prices, a robust carry-forward stock of 8.5 million tonnes from the previous season will comfortably meet domestic demand, estimated at 29 million tonnes. This supply security is vital for both internal consumption and the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP), which aligns with India’s energy strategy by converting sugar into ethanol. A steady stock also opens avenues for limited exports, helping sugar mills maintain financial liquidity to ensure timely payments to farmers.

Additional insights from ISMA indicate that crop conditions across key sugarcane-producing states remain favorable. Maharashtra may see a drop in output from 11.85 million tonnes to 11.1 million tonnes, though production in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh should stay stable at 5.81 million tonnes and 11 million tonnes, respectively. Despite a marginal dip in combined production from other states, satellite data confirms that conditions align with ISMA’s projections.

Given the supportive factors, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain stable, balancing demand-supply dynamics while also allowing flexibility for ethanol production and potential export gains.

Finally

India’s 2024-25 sugar supply is set to meet domestic demand and ethanol needs, with steady prices supporting farmers and allowing for some exports.

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