India rupee to rise on drop in US yields, state poll outcome
The Indian rupee is likely to open stronger on Monday, aided by a drop in U.S. Treasury yields following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and on the back of state election victories for India's ruling party.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.23-83.24 to the U.S. dollar compared with its close at 83.2875 on Friday.
"With state election results in favour of the central ruling party, rupee should open higher... however dip-buying interest (on USD/INR) may emerge near 83.20," a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party won the elections in three of the five Indian states that had recently gone to the polls.
The elections results, "are likely positive for equity inflows, and as such reduces some pressure for INR depreciation in the near-term," MUFG Bank said in a note on Monday.
U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Friday after comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled optimism that the central bank's current policy rate may be adequate to complete the job of combating inflation.
"Having come so far so quickly, the (Federal Open Market Committee) is moving forward carefully, as the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced," Powell said.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield inched up in Asia after falling to a low of 4.19% on Friday, its weakest level since early September.
Fed futures are pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, up from 21% over a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
Most Asian currencies edged higher and the dollar index was up slightly at 103.28.
Over the week, investors will keep an eye on U.S. economic data for further cues on Fed policy while awaiting the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision on Friday.
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.29; onshore one-month forward premium at 5.75 paise
** Dollar index up at 103.28
** Brent crude futures down 0.7% at $78.3 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.25%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $1.17 bln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 30
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $10.9 mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 30
Views On RBI Monetary Policy By Amar Ambani, Yes Securities
Rupee weakens against US dollar on Friday