India Exim Bank forecasts India`s merchandise exports to amount to US$ 125.3bnand Non-oil exports to US$ 113.4bnfor Q4 (January-March) of FY2026
Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 125.3bn, witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y)growth of 8.7%, while non-oil exports are forecast to increase to US$ 113.4bn, growing at 12.1%, during Q4 (January-March) of FY2026. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount US$ 98 bn, with an y-o-y growth of 5.7% during the same quarter.
With these forecasts, India’s total merchandise exports for the full year for FY2026 are expected to be at US$ 455.6 billion, growing at 4.1%, while non-oil exports are likely to touch US$ 401.6 billion, growing at 7.3%. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to amount to US$ 364.9 billion, growing at 5.7% in FY2026.
India’s export outlook is expected to improve further, supported by a rise in overall competitiveness driven by sustained macroeconomic stability, competitive exchange rate, and the higher capital expenditure committed in the recent Union Budget. This momentum is further supported by policy interventions in the form of export relief measures. Increased geographical diversification of exports and favourable prospects of recently concluded trade negotiations with select countries are also expected to contribute to positive exports’ growth. However, there are downside risks to these growth projections on account of continued global uncertainty and volatility in commodity markets.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems &jewellery exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months ofMay, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the first quarter of FY 2027 (i.e.,April-June 2026) would be released during the first fortnight of May 2026.
The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Satyananda Sahoo, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
