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Gold

Gold posted a strong performance, settling up about 3.01% at Rs.161,598, as renewed trade tensions drove safe-haven demand. The backdrop of U.S. policy shifts, including President Trump’s announcement to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% following the Supreme Court’s rejection of earlier “reciprocal tariffs,” has unsettled markets, bolstering bullion appeal amid broader risk aversion. Continued uncertainty over U.S.–EU and U.S.–India trade negotiations compounded this effect, while lingering fears of a potential U.S. military strike on Iran added further geopolitical risk premium to gold prices. Gold has climbed to multi-week highs, with global spot and futures markets reflecting renewed demand for defensive assets.  On the supply/demand front, Swiss gold exports fell 8% in January, with shipments to the UK slowing yet deliveries to China and India rising sharply, highlighting shifting flows ahead of the Lunar New Year. Despite subdued Indian consumer demand, domestic traders widened gold discounts, and gold ETFs saw strong inflows in January, albeit with recent moderation. China’s gold production and ETF holdings also climbed, though overall consumption dipped, reflecting mixed fundamentals. Technically, fresh buying and rising open interest support the market. Immediate support lies at 159,230, with a break below potentially testing 156,865; resistance is now near 162,845, and a sustained break above could target 164,095 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 156865-164095.

* Gold climbed as renewed tariff worries prompted a rush to safe-haven assets.

* US President Trump announced plans to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following the US Supreme Court's rejection of his "reciprocal tariffs."

* COMEX gold speculators raise net long position by 3,020 contracts to 96,057 in week to February 17 - CFTC

Silver

Silver surged sharply, settling 4.9% higher at Rs.265,333, as a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed trade uncertainty boosted safe-haven demand. The rally followed a U.S. Supreme Court ruling against former President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which pressured the greenback and made dollar-denominated metals more attractive to overseas buyers. At the same time, inflation data added complexity to the outlook. Core PCE rose 0.4% in December, while underlying inflation showed signs of firming again, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates. Recent FOMC minutes revealed policymakers remain divided, with some open to further tightening if inflation stays elevated. On the macro front, U.S. GDP expanded at a modest 1.4% annualized pace in Q4 2025, sharply lower than Q3’s 4.4%, as consumer spending slowed. Physical market fundamentals also remain supportive. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to around 350 tonnes — their lowest level since 2015 — marking a dramatic decline from the 2021 peak. Meanwhile, London vault holdings stood at 27,729 tonnes at end-January, slightly lower month-on-month. Technically, the market reflects fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.82%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.260,615, with a break potentially extending toward Rs.255,900. Resistance stands at Rs.269,460, and a sustained move higher could test Rs.273,590.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 255900-273590.

* Silver rose as the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump's tariffs sent the dollar lower.

* Trump imposes 15% levy on imports after court ruling

* Fed speakers' signals crucial for market's rate expectations

Crude

Crude oil edged lower, settling marginally down 0.2% at Rs.6,045, as easing geopolitical tensions offset otherwise supportive inventory data. Sentiment softened after the U.S. and Iran moved toward a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva, reducing immediate fears of supply disruption. At the same time, fresh uncertainty emerged on the trade front after President Donald Trump announced plans to raise temporary tariffs from 10% to 15%, clouding the outlook for global growth and fuel demand. On the supply side, Libya resumed output at the Sinawan oilfield, restoring around 20,000 barrels per day. However, U.S. inventory data painted a bullish picture. Crude stocks fell sharply by 9.01 million barrels, the biggest draw in five months, while gasoline and distillate inventories also declined more than expected. Cushing stocks dropped as well, signaling tighter near-term supply. The International Energy Agency slightly raised its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd, indicating a narrower surplus. Meanwhile, the EIA expects U.S. production to ease after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market shows fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 5.07%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.5,958, with a break potentially dragging prices toward Rs.5,872. On the upside, resistance stands at Rs.6,132, and a sustained move higher could test Rs.6,220.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5872-6220.

* Crude oil slid with the U.S. and Iran headed for a third round of nuclear talks, easing concerns.

* Iran and the U.S. will hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said.

* Goldman Sachs raises Brent/WTI forecast for 2026Q4 by $6 to $60/56

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined sharply, settling 3.51% lower at Rs.272.3, as near-record production and milder weather forecasts weighed on sentiment. Output across the Lower 48 states averaged 108.6 bcfd in February so far, up from 106.3 bcfd in January and not far from December’s record 109.7 bcfd. At the same time, forecasts call for warmer-than-normal temperatures through early March, reducing expectations for heating demand. Although storage levels remain about 5–6% below the five-year average, analysts expect that deficit to narrow significantly in the coming weeks. The latest EIA data showed a 144 bcf withdrawal for the week ended February 13 — broadly in line with expectations but smaller than last year’s draw for the same period. Total inventories now stand at 2.07 tcf, down 2.8% year-on-year. Demand, including exports, is projected to rise from 125.2 bcfd this week to 133.1 bcfd next week. LNG feedgas flows remain strong and are on track to exceed December’s record levels. Meanwhile, the EIA expects U.S. gas production to climb to fresh highs in 2026 and 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest plunging 39.42%. Immediate support lies at Rs.265.7, with a break below targeting Rs.259.1, while resistance stands at Rs.284.4, and a move above could test Rs.296.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 259.1-296.5.

* Natural gas eased on near-record daily output and forecasts for milder weather.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.

* LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, would rise from 125.2 bcfd this week to 133.1 bcfd next week.

Copper

Copper ended nearly flat, inching up 0.03% to Rs.1,168.45, as rising inventories and macro uncertainty kept gains in check. Stocks in LME-approved warehouses climbed to 241,825 tons — the highest since March 2025 — and are now up roughly 70% this year. The cash contract’s $100-per-ton discount to the three-month forward also signals no immediate supply tightness. Market sentiment remains mixed. Fresh uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, after the Supreme Court struck down emergency tariffs and a new 15% tariff proposal followed, has clouded the outlook. Meanwhile, Fed minutes showed policymakers are in no rush to cut rates, with some even open to hikes if inflation persists. In China, factory activity softened in January, reflecting weak domestic demand, though expectations of long-term demand from manufacturing, green energy, and AI continue to provide structural support. On the supply side, Chile and Peru reported double-digit production declines at key mines, while China is expanding strategic reserves. However, the global refined copper market remains in surplus, with the ICSG reporting a 94,000-ton surplus in November. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down 9.48%. Immediate support is at Rs.1,160.7, with a break toward Rs.1,152.9. Resistance stands at Rs.1,177.6, and a move above could test Rs.1,186.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1152.9-1186.7.

* Copper settled flat as inventories extended their rise and investors puzzled over the future of U.S. tariffs.

* COMEX copper speculators cut net long position by 1,570 contracts to 52,700 in week to February 17 - CFTC

* JP Morgan forecasts 130kt copper deficit for 2026

Zinc

Zinc edged higher, settling 0.21% up at Rs.327, supported by lingering supply concerns even as broader demand signals remain mixed. Tight inventories and temporary mine disruptions in China lent underlying strength. A southwest Chinese mine suspended output earlier this month, while another lead-zinc operation in central China began holiday-related stoppages, together trimming concentrate availability in the near term. However, supply risks are being partly offset elsewhere. Boliden’s Tara mine in Ireland has resumed operations, and Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project in the DRC continues to ramp up. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc output hit a record 675,000 mt in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, as smelters capitalized on favorable margins. Full-year 2025 production rose nearly 6% to 7.41 million tons. Globally, the refined zinc market showed a modest deficit of 7,700 tons in November, though the market remains in surplus on a year-to-date basis. On the macro front, Fed minutes revealed divided views on rate policy, while weak Chinese data and uneven domestic demand capped upside momentum. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping sharply by 41.72%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.326, with a break toward Rs.324.8. Resistance stands at Rs.328.9, and a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs.330.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 324.8-330.6.

* Zinc prices gained as low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* Refined zinc production was on track to fall 2% last year, despite the 6.3% jump in mined output.

* China's economy is stable but faces challenges such as imbalance in supply and demand, the People's Bank of China said.

Aluminium

Aluminium slipped slightly, settling 0.15% lower at Rs.306.8, as higher global output and rising exchange inventories capped gains. Data from the International Aluminium Institute showed global primary aluminium production rose 1.3% year-on-year in January to 6.317 million tonnes. In China, output has hovered near the government’s 45 million-ton capacity cap, limiting further expansion, although December production still touched a record 3.87 million tons. For 2025, China’s total output exceeded 45 million tons, reflecting steady growth despite policy constraints. Market sentiment was also influenced by reports that the U.S. may scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminium products. Meanwhile, the IMF flagged risks to China’s growth outlook, citing weak domestic demand and broader global slowdown concerns. However, downside pressure was partly offset by supply-side risks, including South32’s decision to place its Mozal smelter in Mozambique into care and maintenance next month. Power constraints in Indonesia and firm global demand have also supported prices, prompting Goldman Sachs to lift its first-half price outlook. On the inventory front, SHFE stocks rose over 21% week-on-week, while Japanese port inventories edged higher. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 26.91%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.305.1, below which prices may test Rs.303.4. Resistance stands at Rs.309.2, with a move above opening the door to Rs.311.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 303.4-311.6.

* Aluminium dropped as global primary aluminium output in January rose 1.3% year on year to 6.317 million tonnes.

* JP Morgan: Sees 230kt deficit in aluminium market in 2026

* JP Morgan: See aluminum prices averaging $3,200/mt in 2Q26 and remaining largely supported over 2H26 too

Turmeric

Turmeric slipped 1.5% to settle at 15,582, weighed down by expectations of a sharp rise in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next couple of weeks. Improved acreage, supported by favourable rains during sowing, has also added pressure. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried production is pegged at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, and both farmers and stockists have reduced holdings, tightening near-term supplies. Weather-related issues, including waterlogging and disease in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, have affected yields, with localized losses of 15–20%. Quality concerns such as rhizome rot remain in some low-lying areas. Export demand continues to lend support. Turmeric exports during April–December 2025 rose 3.99% year-on-year, while imports dropped sharply by over 41%, reflecting tighter domestic availability. Spot prices in Nizamabad declined 1.7%, mirroring futures weakness. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 2.19% while prices fell Rs.238. Support is seen at 15,196 and 14,808, while resistance stands at 16,176; a move above could open the way toward 16,768.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14808-16768.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15546.25 Rupees dropped by -1.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera declined 1.47% to settle at 22,720 as new crop arrivals began entering some markets, with supplies expected to gather momentum from March. Comfortable existing stocks and subdued export demand further weighed on prices. Exports during April–December 2025 fell 12.08% year-on-year, with December shipments down sharply both annually and sequentially, reflecting weak overseas buying. Spot prices in Unjha also eased by 0.71%. That said, the downside appears limited. Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, pointing to tighter production prospects. National output for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly below last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Production in Gujarat is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Reports of aphid infestation in Rajasthan and weather-related challenges in key producing countries such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are also adding a layer of uncertainty. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, though only a fraction may be traded before season-end, leaving sizeable carry-forward stocks. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 3.71% while prices fell Rs.340. Support is seen at 22,490 and 22,240, while resistance stands at 23,020; a move above could test 23,300.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22240-23300.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22543.1 Rupees dropped by -0.71 percent.

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