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Gold

Gold prices dropped by -2.49% to settle at 75,351, driven by a strong U.S. dollar as concerns over potential U.S. tariffs weighed on the euro, which fell to a 6.5-month low. Market uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies post-election also kept the dollar elevated. Additionally, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that widespread deportations of foreign workers in the U.S. could disrupt businesses, though economic impacts remain uncertain. In Europe, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s actions potentially pave the way for snap elections, raising political risks that could lead to a looser fiscal policy next year. India’s gold demand softened as buyers paused following the festive season, while Indian dealers raised premiums to $3 per ounce due to volatility. Meanwhile, China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for a sixth month, with discounts widening to $15-$17 in the local market, while Japan and Singapore saw stable premiums. The World Gold Council (WGC) reported stable global demand at 1,176.5 tons in Q3, as heightened investment demand offset weaker jewelry purchases. Total demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) flows, rose by 5% to a record 1,313 tons for Q3, driven by a significant 97% increase in OTC flows from institutional and high-net-worth investors. Physically-backed gold ETFs saw inflows of 95 tons, marking their first positive quarter since early 2022, while bar and coin investment dipped by 9%. On the supply side, mine production grew 6%, reaching a Q3 record, and recycling increased by 11%. Technically, gold is under fresh selling pressure with a 6.67% rise in open interest, settling at 10,589 contracts. Support is now at 74,780, with a potential decline to 74,215 if breached. Resistance is at 76,440, with prices likely to test 77,535 if it breaks through.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 74215-77535.
* Gold dropped as investors worried about possible U.S. tariffs that would hurt the euro area's economy.
* Fed's Kashkari says deportations could disrupt labor for business
* Politics remained under the spotlight after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz paved the way for snap elections.

Silver

Silver prices fell by 2.29%, settling at 89,182, driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar, which climbed to 105.5—its highest level since July. This dollar rally, which has extended into a six-week winning streak, was supported by market expectations of continued pro-business policies under a potential Trump administration, with anticipated tax cuts and deregulation fueling inflation concerns. Higher inflation expectations limit the Federal Reserve's scope for rate cuts, adding further support to the dollar. Additionally, key economic data releases this week, including inflation metrics, retail sales, and industrial production figures, could influence market sentiment. The likelihood of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December has fallen to 69%, down from around 80% pre-election, reflecting a reduced rate cut outlook. India's silver imports are poised to almost double this year due to robust demand from the solar panel and electronics industries, alongside investors' preference for silver as a potentially better-performing asset than gold. As the world’s largest silver consumer, India's increased imports—already reaching 4,554 tons in the first half of 2024, a significant rise from 560 tons a year earlier—could lend further support to global prices. Industrial buyers, reacting to last year's inventory depletion, have been building stockpiles to guard against price rises. Technically, the silver market is under fresh selling pressure with open interest up by 4.31% to 24,266 contracts, indicating continued bearish sentiment. Immediate support for silver stands at 88,180, with further downside potential to 87,180 if breached, while resistance is positioned at 90,910, with an extension to 92,640 if upward momentum resumes. This setup points to cautious trading, with potential for price rebounds on positive economic data.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 87180-92640.
* Silver dropped as the dollar index rose to 105.5 its highest level since early July.
* Trump trades remain prevalent as traders anticipate that Donald Trump’s policies on taxation and deregulation will favor businesses.
* This week, key economic data releases, including consumer and producer inflation, retail sales, and industrial production, are in focus.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by -3.26%, settling at 5,762, primarily driven by concerns over weak demand from China. Data showing low consumer inflation and decreasing factory prices in China underscored fears of a slowdown in the world's largest oil importer. The strengthening U.S. dollar, following President Trump’s re-election, further pressured oil prices, as it makes dollar-denominated commodities less appealing globally. Additionally, market participants are carefully watching the demand outlook for 2025 amid potential impacts from Trump’s policies and ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. With an expected oil surplus in 2025, key reports from OPEC, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency this week will be closely scrutinized for further insights. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.149 million barrels for the week ending November 1, 2024, surpassing expectations of a 1.8 million barrel increase, according to the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, grew by 0.522 million barrels, following a previous rise of 0.681 million barrels. Additionally, gasoline stocks rose by 0.412 million barrels, defying predictions of a 1.2 million barrel decline, while distillate stockpiles increased by 2.947 million barrels, exceeding the anticipated 1 million barrel drop. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook revised its global oil demand forecast for 2025, anticipating a growth of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 104.3 million bpd, which is 300,000 bpd below previous estimates. The report also adjusted U.S. oil production expectations slightly lower. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 9.59% to 13,442 contracts. Support is currently at 5,687, with a potential dip to 5,611 if broken. Resistance is now at 5,900, with a further move likely testing 6,037 if breached.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5611-6037.
* Crude oil prices dropped as concerns about weak demand from China weighed on the market. Data
* Data showing low consumer inflation and declining factory prices in China added to fears of a slowdown.
* Traders are closely monitoring the global demand outlook for 2025, alongside the potential impact of Trump's policies.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged by 10.23%, closing at 247.8, as production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico persisted following storm Rafael. The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reported that 310 million cubic feet of natural gas—representing over 16% of total output—remained offline, alongside 482,790 barrels of oil, with around 10% of manned platforms still evacuated. Production losses have reached 1.12 billion cubic feet of gas, amplifying supply concerns. Although Rafael has downgraded to a tropical storm, it’s projected to linger, raising potential disruptions further. The colder weather forecasts in the UK have spiked gas demand, with consumption projected to rise through the week. This increase, coupled with the UK’s limited storage and reliance on European imports, has led to heightened storage withdrawals. The market is also considering potential impacts on long-term supply trends, with Donald Trump’s possible re-election and its implications for US LNG exports and Ukraine policy. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2024 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), predicting that dry gas production will dip slightly to 103.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024, down from a 2023 record of 103.8 bcfd. Demand is set to reach a record 90.1 bcfd before easing back in 2025, while US LNG exports are expected to climb to 12.1 bcfd in 2024, a rise from 2023's record. Technically, the natural gas market is seeing short covering, with open interest dropping by 20.49% to 17,970 contracts as prices rallied by 23 rupees. Support is now at 233.9, with potential downside to 220.1, while resistance lies at 255.6, with a further test possible at 263.5 if bullish momentum continues.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 220.1-263.5.
* Natural gas jumped as significant production in the Gulf of Mexico remained disrupted following storm Rafael.
* The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported that 310 million cubic feet of natural gas were still shut in.
* Forecasts show that Britain's gas demand is expected to rise significantly, with a noticeable increase projected for the next day and further rises for the upcoming work week.


Copper

Copper prices dropped by -1.57% to 821.3, pressured by weak demand in China, where new bank lending in October fell significantly short of expectations, with Chinese banks extending only 500 billion yuan in new loans versus the anticipated 700 billion yuan. Policymakers in China’s National People’s Congress announced a CNY 10 trillion debt swap to help local governments, yet investors remain skeptical about its impact on manufacturing, dampening demand expectations for copper. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar retained its post-election rally due to expectations of tighter monetary policy under President-elect Trump, further weighing on copper, which is priced in dollars and sensitive to demand from emerging markets. On the supply side, Chile’s state copper company Codelco increased output by 5.2% year-on-year in September, while production from other major mines saw mixed results. The global refined copper market posted a 54,000 metric tons surplus in August, narrowing from a 73,000-ton surplus in July, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first eight months of 2024, the copper market has maintained a 535,000-ton surplus, significantly higher than last year’s figures. Chinese demand indicators showed some support as unwrought copper imports rose 1.1% year-on-year in October, totaling 506,000 metric tons. This uptick, along with declining domestic inventories, reflects seasonal demand and optimism around future consumption, though Yangshan premiums recently softened from a yearly high. Technically, copper remains under selling pressure as open interest climbed by 5.84% to 7,923 contracts, with prices down by -13.1 rupees. Key support lies at 815.7, and if breached, copper could test 810. Resistance is now at 831.8, with a potential rise to 842.2 on a break above this level.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 810-842.2.
* Copper slipped after new bank lending in China fell more than expected in October, highlighting weak demand.
* Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) in new yuan loans last month, greatly lagging the forecast for 700 billion yuan.
* Chile's state-run copper giant increased production by 5.2% year-on-year in September for a total of 123,100 metric tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.39%, closing at 278.8, as markets evaluated the potential effects of China's recent stimulus on metal demand. China’s Standing Committee of the People’s National Congress introduced a $1.4 trillion debt package aimed at allowing local governments to restructure hidden debt and lower financing costs. However, the absence of significant new measures left investors cautious, especially as China’s housing market struggles to regain momentum. Weak demand for housing was reflected in the construction PMI, which fell to a record low of 50.4, and annual house prices dropped by 5.7%, underscoring ongoing economic challenges. On the supply side, zinc ingot inventory in seven regions recorded mixed changes, with Shanghai’s inventory decreasing due to fewer warehouse arrivals and increased downstream purchases at lower prices. Meanwhile, Guangdong inventory saw a rise from additional warehouse arrivals. The global zinc market deficit widened to 66,300 metric tons in August from 51,000 tons in July, as reported by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). For the first eight months of 2024, the market remained in surplus by 127,000 tons, a reduction from the previous year's 418,000-ton surplus. China’s refined zinc production in September showed a 2% month-on-month increase but an 8% year-on-year decline, with smelters in several regions ramping up production after maintenance. October production is anticipated to rise further, mainly in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Hunan. Technically, zinc is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 0.41% to 3,124 contracts, indicating reduced market participation. Support for zinc is seen at 277.5, with further downside potential to 276. Resistance lies at 281.3, with a move above possibly pushing prices to 283.6, as traders balance improving production with subdued demand signals.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 276-283.6.
* Zinc dropped as markets assessed the impact that fresh stimulus from China may have on metal demand.
* Zinc ingot inventory in seven regions was 120,000 mt, an increase of 1,100 mt compared to October 31.
* China’s official construction PMI falling to a record low of 50.4 and house prices sinking by 5.7% annually.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices fell by -1.3% to 238.45 amid disappointment over the limited scale of China’s recently announced stimulus measures aimed at reviving its economy. China’s fiscal support package, designed to alleviate debt burdens for local governments, hinted at further potential measures but left investors uncertain about its immediate impact on metals demand. Concerns surrounding incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China added to worries, as such measures could hinder global demand for metals, including aluminium. On the supply side, China’s aluminium production rose by 1.69% year-on-year in October, with some capacity resuming after technical renovations. However, full resumption of smelters has been delayed, tempering the production outlook. Supported by stable demand during the September-October peak season, downstream alloy product demand saw a modest rise. The share of liquid aluminium also increased, reaching 73.93%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of trade, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product exports surged to 5.5 million tons over the first ten months of 2024, a 17% increase from the previous year. October alone saw exports grow by 2.7% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year, reaching 577,000 tons. Strong demand and favorable margins have supported China’s output, with September production hitting 3.65 million metric tons, a 1.2% increase year-on-year. Technically, aluminium is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest down by -10.17% to settle at 3,099 contracts. Key support is now at 237.1, and a break below this level could lead to further downside to 235.7. On the upside, resistance is positioned at 240.9, and a move above this level could see prices testing 243.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 235.7-243.3.
* Aluminium dropped on disappointment over China's fiscal support
* The total alumina inventory at domestic ports amounted to 50,500 tonnes, an increase of 20,500 tonnes compared to the week.
* China’s aluminum production in October 2024 increased by 1.69% YoY.


Cotton candy

Cotton candy prices declined by -0.2% to 55,960, with weak yarn market demand and payment issues weighing on the sentiment. India's cotton production for 2024/25 is forecasted to drop by 7.4% to 30.2 million bales due to a decrease in planted area and crop damage from excessive rainfall. The USDA lowered its production estimate for India to 30.72 million bales and reduced ending stocks to 12.38 million, impacted by pest issues and adverse weather. Meanwhile, global production is expected to increase by over 200,000 bales, driven by gains in China, Brazil, and Argentina, offsetting declines in the U.S. and Spain. In India, the planted cotton area fell to 11.29 million hectares from 12.69 million last year, as farmers in key states like Gujarat shifted to groundnut cultivation for better returns. The reduced production will likely impact exports, with forecasts dropping to 1.8 million bales from 2.85 million bales last year, and imports are projected to rise to 2.5 million bales, supporting global cotton prices. The U.S. cotton balance sheet reflects lower production, mill use, and exports, with damage from Hurricane Helene reducing all-cotton production by over 300,000 bales. Global trade is also expected to fall due to reduced Chinese imports, and world ending stocks are slightly lower at 76.3 million bales. Technically, cotton candy is under fresh selling pressure with a 1.79% increase in open interest, settling at 171 contracts. Key support is at 55,880, with a potential further dip to 55,790 if this level breaks. On the upside, resistance is seen at 56,080, and a move above this level could test 56,190.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55790-56190.
* Cotton settled flat as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* India's cotton production estimated to drop to 7-year low in 2024-25
* USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26345.5 Rupees dropped by -0.09 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rose by 2.02% to settle at 13,412 due to short covering after a period of price pressure from increased arrivals and subdued demand. This uptick follows recent declines influenced by a projected 30-35% increase in sowing area for the upcoming season, which points to higher production. However, crop damage due to heavy rains has limited the downside, with losses potentially exceeding initial estimates. Recent weather conditions have been favorable for crop growth, with turmeric-growing regions like Vidarbha and Telangana receiving light rainfall last week, supporting crop development ahead of the harvest in five months. Despite the anticipated rise in acreage, unfavorable weather may reduce available supply, which could push prices up in the coming weeks. Internationally, Indonesia’s accelerated turmeric harvest due to dry weather has added to global supply, while in India, increased sowing in regions like Erode, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh is set to impact supply. Last year, turmeric was planted on 3-3.25 lakh hectares in India, expected to increase to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year. With lower carryover stocks from 2023 and consumption surpassing production, supply tightness could persist in 2025. On the trade front, turmeric exports from India during April-August 2024 decreased by 6.46%, while imports surged by 340.21% due to supply shortages. Technically, the turmeric market is under short covering with a 3.24% drop in open interest, signaling reduced selling pressure as prices rose by 266 rupees. Support is at 13,152, with potential downside to 12,892, while resistance lies at 13,630, with a further move possibly testing 13,848 if demand intensifies. This suggests a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12892-13848.
* Turmeric gains on short covering after prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* The expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year.
* Recent weather conditions, which include dry weather followed by light rains, are benefiting crop growth.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13589.2 Rupees gained by 0.27 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased by -0.22% to settle at 25,220 as arrivals surged, with approximately 15,000 bags of cumin arriving daily in Unjha. Farmers are estimated to retain about 35% of the season's stock, with a projected carryover stock of around 20 lakh bags at the beginning of the new season. Despite this, there is optimism for an export recovery post-Diwali, with November-December expected to see increased export volumes. Production is anticipated to decline by 10%, with cultivation in Rajasthan also forecasted to drop by 10-15%. As Indian cumin remains the most cost-effective globally, priced at $3,050 per tonne, it is attracting attention from international buyers, including China, which faces higher cumin prices. This pricing advantage positions India as the preferred cumin supplier, especially given the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which has bolstered demand from exporters in Gujarat. According to the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS), cumin seed exports rose sharply in the July-September period, reaching 52,022 MT, up 128% year-on-year. Jeera exports from April to August 2024 increased by 61.44% to 103,614 tonnes, with August 2024 exports showing an 88.53% rise over the previous year. Technically, the jeera market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest growing by 0.32% to 1,908 contracts. Support is seen at 25,080, with a potential dip to 24,940 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is likely at 25,380, and a break above this could test 25,540.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24940-25540.
* Jeera prices dropped as arrival has increased.
* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat
* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25520.8 Rupees gained by 0.03 percent.

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