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GOLD

Gold witnessed a decline of -0.7%, settling at 60347, driven by a strengthening dollar due to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Israel's considerations for temporary halts in the Gaza Strip, also affected gold's value. U.S. Treasury yields stabilized after an initial rise attributed to extensive corporate debt sales and upcoming auctions. Concerns about Federal Reserve rate policies intensified following remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, emphasizing a proactive approach to control inflation. The focus shifted to U.S. trade deficit reports for September and upcoming speeches by Fed officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's forthcoming addresses are anticipated to provide more insights on the U.S. rate outlook amid growing recession concerns. In India and China, gold dealers offered discounts due to reduced consumer interest. Indian dealers provided discounts of up to $9 an ounce over official prices, continuing a trend from the previous week's $5 discount. From a technical standpoint, the market experienced long liquidation, marked by a -7.81% drop in open interest to settle at 12,791. Gold found support at 60125, with a possible decline to 59910. Resistance is anticipated at 60580, with potential movement towards 60820.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 59910-60820.
* Gold prices fell as the dollar advanced after climb in U.S. Treasury yields.
* Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said the Fed might still have some work to do to control inflation.
* Following the remarks, odds for another US interest rate hike at the December meeting rose from 10% to 15%.
 

SILVER

Silver observed a significant decline of -2.06%, settling at 70634, attributed to a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury Yields. The market focused on interpreting monetary policy indications, especially after comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari highlighted the need for further measures to control inflation. Weak US job figures initially spurred hope that the Federal Reserve might have concluded its tightening cycle, stimulating demand for non-yielding assets. Investors await speeches by Fed officials, particularly Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for insights on rate prospects. Middle East tensions easing and varied China data contributed to the decline in precious metals. China's year-on-year import growth in October contrasted with a contraction in total exports, signaling subdued global demand. U.S. trade deficit reports for September and remarks by several Fed officials are anticipated, while Jerome Powell's speeches are expected to shed light on the U.S. rate outlook amid recession concerns. Technically, the market observed fresh selling, marked by a 17.55% increase in open interest to settle at 22,775. Silver finds support at 70130, potentially testing 69625. Resistance is anticipated at 71570, with a probable move towards 72505.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 69625-72505.
* Silver dropped weighed by stronger dollar and Treasury Yields
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the US central bank probably still had some work to do to bring inflation under control.
* U.S. reports on the U.S trade deficit in the month of September may attract attention later today along with remarks by several Fed officials.
 

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil observed a substantial decline of -4.67%, closing at 6507, primarily due to diminished Middle East tensions and mixed trade data from China, sparking fresh worries about global economic challenges. OPEC+ holds a positive view of the global economy's health despite inflation concerns in major countries. The organization emphasized the robustness of the global economy amid various pressures and challenges. China's increased crude oil imports by 13.52% in October from the previous year, attributing the rise to heightened refiner purchases through new import quotas, meeting expanded domestic fuel demands during the Golden Week holiday. The country imported 48.97 million metric tons, or 11.53 million barrels per day (bpd), showcasing a slight uptick from September's 11.13 million bpd. The year-to-date figures indicated a substantial 14.4% surge in imports compared to the previous year. From a technical perspective, the market demonstrated fresh selling, marked by a significant 73.95% rise in open interest to settle at 11,357. Crude oil finds support at 6414, possibly testing 6321, with resistance expected at 6665 and a potential surge towards 6823.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6321-6823.
* Crude oil dropped as Middle East tensions receded
* China reported mixed trade data, stoking fresh concerns over economic headwinds.
* OPEC+ has taken steps to achieve 'stable' crude market in 2023
 

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas registered a decline of -3.49%, closing at 262.5 due to predictions of prolonged mild weather conditions, resulting in decreased heating demand and allowing utilities to continue injecting gas into storage. Record output in October and continued high production in November contribute to excess gas in storage, approximately 6% above the seasonal average. Anticipated warmer weather until mid-November is further reducing the need for natural gas. Although gas flows to U.S. LNG export facilities are rising, they remain below the peak observed in April. Export volumes to Mexico have declined since reaching a record high in September, with expectations of an upturn upon the commencement of LNG exports from New Fortress Energy's plant. According to LSEG, gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, forecasting a reduction in gas demand, including exports, from 109.9 bcfd this week to 101.3 bcfd next week due to milder weather, before surging to 108.9 bcfd with colder temperatures. Technically, the market has observed fresh selling, evidenced by a 13.75% rise in open interest to settle at 34,101. Natural gas finds support at 256.8 and could test 251 if breached, with resistance at 271.7 and a potential rise to 280.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 251-280.8.
* Natural gas dropped on record output and forecasts for mild weather to continue through late November
* Natural gas production has been on the rise in November, following a record high in October.
* Additionally, there is currently about 6% more gas in storage than is typical for this time of year.

 

COPPER

Copper experienced a decline of -0.53%, settling at 709.9, influenced by a stronger dollar and signs of inventory relief. China's copper imports surged by 23.7% in October, driven by low stocks and robust demand, particularly in construction, transport, and power sectors. Notably, copper inventories in China were at a 13-month low as of October 27, down 85.6% from their peak in March. September and October traditionally witness increased copper demand due to ramped-up industrial activity after a summer lull and higher consumer spending during the Golden Week holiday in early October. However, copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 11.2% to 40,516 tonnes during the week ending November 3, providing a buffer following a prior period's significant decline. Market focus remained on China's demand outlook, as Beijing plans to issue CNY 1 trillion in additional debt to stimulate manufacturing and infrastructure construction. Contradictorily, PMI data revealed unexpected contractions in China's manufacturing sector, raising concerns about the potential impact of investments on output. Technically, the market saw fresh selling, marked by a 1.97% increase in open interest to settle at 6,155. Copper is supported at 707.1, potentially testing 704.1, with resistance expected at 712.5 and a possible move towards 714.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 704.1-714.9.
* Copper fell amid pressure from a stronger dollar and some respite in inventory levels.
* China's October copper imports jump amid low stocks, solid demand
* Copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 11.2% to 40,516 tonnes

 

ZINC

Zinc recorded a modest increase of 0.11%, settling at 226.75, triggered by Nyrstar's plan to temporarily close two zinc mines in Tennessee due to weak prices and inflationary impacts. China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in October, reflecting the nation's delicate economic recovery. The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI also decreased to 50.6, highlighting a slowdown from the previous month. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market is expected to shift from a projected deficit of 45,000 tons to a surplus of 248,000 tons due to lower-than-expected demand. Despite initial estimations of tight monetary conditions, world demand for refined zinc is anticipated to increase by 1.1% to 13.59 million tons in 2023. China's refined zinc output in September increased by 3.31% month-on-month and 7.94% year-on-year, falling slightly below expectations. From January to September, cumulative refined zinc output showed a 9.84% year-on-year increase. Notably, domestic zinc alloy production in September also exhibited a month-on-month increase. From a technical perspective, the market underwent short covering, marked by a 2.73% drop in open interest to settle at 4,390. Zinc is supported at 225.7 and could test 224.4 if breached, with resistance expected at 227.6 and a potential rise towards 228.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 224.4-228.2.
* Zinc prices rose as Nyrstar plans to temporarily close two zinc mines.
* Global zinc market surplus widens in August – ILZSG
* The global zinc market to show a surplus of 148,000 metric tons this year and 238,000 tons in 2024.

 

ALUMINIUM

Aluminium witnessed a decline of -0.38%, settling at 208.4, with the focus primarily on assessing China's demand outlook. Beijing plans to inject CNY 1 trillion in additional debt to stimulate manufacturing and infrastructure construction. However, PMI data indicating a contraction in China's manufacturing sector raised concerns regarding the effectiveness of these investments on output. Chinese officials announced a goal to open the economy and boost imports of commodities and services significantly over the next five months. On the flip side, the dollar weakened post the US monthly payrolls report, suggesting expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. Closely monitoring industrial metals imports in China in the upcoming months along with consumer prices will provide insights into the impact of China's economic stimulus. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit widened in September but remained one of the lowest since 2021. Additionally, Germany's Construction PMI hit a low, suggesting a deteriorating trend in the construction sector. From a technical standpoint, long liquidation was evident, marked by a 2.77% decrease in open interest to settle at 2,771. Aluminium is supported at 207.5, possibly testing 206.6 if breached, with resistance anticipated at 209.1 and a potential move towards 209.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.6-209.8.
* Aluminium dropped as markets continued to gauge the demand outlook from China.
* Beijing is set to emit CNY 1 trillion in extra debt to spur manufacturing activity and infrastructure construction.
* PMI data unexpectedly showed contractions in China’s manufacturing sector
 

COTTON

Cotton candy settled down 0.14% at 57960 due to profit booking after recent gains. India's cotton production for 2023/24 is expected to fall by 7.5% to 29.5 million bales, influenced by reduced planted area and El Nino's impact on productivity. Imports may increase to 2.2 million bales, up from 1.25 million bales in the previous marketing year. The USDA's October WASDE report lowered the U.S. cotton production estimate for 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales due to reduced yields in Texas. Brazil's cotton production is predicted to exceed that of the United States for the first time, with Brazil also nearing the point of surpassing U.S. cotton exports. Australia's cotton exports to China saw a significant rise to 61,319 metric tons worth $130 million in August, capitalizing on normalized trade relations. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised its crop production estimate for the 2022-23 season slightly higher at 31.8 million bales, but this differs from the government's estimate of 34.3 million bales. In the Rajkot spot market, cotton candy prices ended at 27213.95 Rupees, down by 0.49%. Technically, the market experienced long liquidation, with a 1.02% drop in open interest. Prices decreased by 80 rupees. Support is identified at 57680 and 57410, with resistance at 58160 and the potential to reach 58370.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57410-58370.
* Cotton dropped  on profit booking after prices gained as India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%.
* Imports could rise to 2.2 million bales in the marketing year that started on Oct. 1, up from the last year's 1.25 million bales
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 27213.95 Rupees dropped by -0.49 percent.

TURMERIC

The turmeric market experienced a 1.71% decline in prices, settling at 13712 due to concerns about yield losses from unfavorable weather conditions. However, the downside was limited due to improved crop conditions, with expectations for harvesting between January to March. The IMD's projection of drier-than-average October may impact crop growth, affecting the overall supply. Despite challenges, the market is bolstered by sustained price stability driven by current buying activity and decreasing supplies. Improved export opportunities have emerged, with a 25% increase in exports due to rising demand in developed and emerging nations. However, a potential 20-25% decline in turmeric seeding this year in key regions might impact future supplies. Turmeric exports in Apr-Aug 2023 rose by 11.51%, reaching 82,939.35 tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. Though August 2023 saw a drop in exports by 18.20% compared to July 2023 and 6.67% compared to August 2022, reflecting some fluctuations in export volumes. In the major spot market of Nizamabad, prices closed at 13653.45 Rupees, marking a 0.24% gain. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed long liquidation with a drop in open interest by -0.31% to settle at 13000. Support is identified at 13592 and 13470 levels, while resistance is anticipated at 13898 and potentially 14082 upon a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13470-14082.
* Turmeric dropped due to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's unfavourable weather.
* However, downside seen limited amid improved crop condition due to favorable weather condition.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13653.45 Rupees gained by 0.24 percent.

 

JEERA

Jeera prices surged by 5.79% to 45005 due to short covering after a recent decline. Favorable weather conditions supporting crop sowing activities have triggered interest among stockists, despite the current abundance of soil moisture. The overall sowing of jeera is expected to be normal, supporting the market. Despite the favorable conditions, a drop in Indian jeera exports by 23.76% during Apr-Aug 2023, and a substantial 66.98% drop in August 2023 compared to the previous year, signals a global demand shift to other producing nations due to comparatively higher Indian prices. The market indicates subdued export activities in the coming weeks as the price competitiveness of Indian jeera does not favor exporters. Moreover, uncertainties loom as China might consider purchasing Indian cumin before the new crop arrival in October-November, impacting market dynamics. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is expected to surpass supply this year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering with a 13.18% drop in open interest at 2667. Support is identified at 43650 and 42290, while resistance is anticipated at 45730 and potentially 46450 in case of a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 42290-46450.
* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped as adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost sowing.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 46228.4 Rupees gained by 1.42 percent.
 

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