IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices moved higher in the previous session, settling 1.23% up at Rs.1,61,634, as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to drive safe-haven demand. The conflict has entered its seventh day, with Iran launching missile and drone attacks across the Gulf, including a strike on an oil refinery in Bahrain, while Israel intensified airstrikes on Tehran. Heightened geopolitical risks and the suspension of operations at the U.S. embassy in Kuwait have kept global markets on edge, prompting investors to shift toward bullion. On the macro front, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have moderated, with markets now pricing in only one rate cut this year, compared to two anticipated earlier. Recent U.S. economic data showed resilience, including lower jobless claims, stronger productivity, fewer job cuts, and solid services sector growth, which has supported the dollar and limited the upside in gold prices. Physical demand trends remained mixed. Gold in China traded at premiums of $13–$15 per ounce, reflecting strong investment demand. In India, however, volatile prices reduced buying interest, although discounts narrowed to around $28 per ounce due to supply disruptions caused by regional airspace closures. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.47% to 7,383 lots while prices rose by Rs.1,961. Gold is currently finding support near Rs.1,59,800, with the next downside level around Rs.1,57,965. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.1,62,990, and a sustained move above this could push prices toward Rs.1,64,345.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 157965-164345.

* Gold rose as the conflict between US and Iran shows no signs of de-escalation, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.

* Global gold Etfs added US$5.3bn in February, extending their ninth straight month of inflows - WGC

* CME cuts initial margin on its COMEX 100 gold futures to 7% from 9%

Silver

Silver prices moved higher in the previous session, settling 2.32% up at Rs.2,68,285, as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand. However, gains remained somewhat limited as persistent inflation concerns reduced expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Investors also turned to precious metals after weaker-than-expected labor market data raised concerns about a potential economic slowdown. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, missing expectations of job growth, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above forecasts. Additional economic data also reflected softer momentum. U.S. retail sales slipped by 0.2% in January, following a flat performance in December, broadly matching market expectations. With mixed economic signals, investors are now closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for March 18, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. On the supply side, tightening physical availability continues to support silver prices. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have fallen to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level in nearly a decade. Data also showed exchange stocks dropping to 318.5 tonnes in early February, marking a sharp decline of more than 88% from the peak levels seen in 2021.  From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.88% to 6,171 lots while prices rose by Rs.6,094. Silver is currently finding support near Rs.2,62,560, with the next downside level around Rs.2,56,840. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.2,72,250, and a sustained move above this could push prices toward Rs.2,76,220.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 256840-276220.

* Silver rose amid safe-haven demand as Middle East tensions escalated.

* Support also seen as weak February labor market data fueled concerns about an impending economic slowdown.

* CME cuts initial margin on its COMEX 5000 silver futures to 14% from 18%

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged sharply in the previous session, settling 14.31% higher at Rs.8,363, as escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered major concerns about global energy supply. The situation intensified after warnings that Gulf oil exporters may halt production if tankers are unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that normally carries nearly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day. Markets remain highly sensitive after Iran signaled it is not currently seeking negotiations, raising fears that the conflict could further disrupt global supply chains. Additional developments added to the bullish sentiment. Saudi Arabia increased oil prices for Asian buyers and has begun redirecting shipments through Red Sea ports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data shows the kingdom loaded roughly 10 million barrels of crude from Al-Muajjiz in the first four days of March, indicating a pace of about 2.5 million barrels per day if maintained. On the demand side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 930,000 barrels per day, up from 860,000 bpd previously.  From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 13.31% to 17,890 lots while prices jumped by Rs.1,047. Crude oil now has support near Rs.7,608, with the next downside level around Rs.6,853. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.8,818, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.9,273.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6853-9273.

* Crude oil rallied as the escalating Middle East conflict severely disrupted global energy flows.

* Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has warned that a halt in Gulf energy exports could push crude prices as high as $150 per barrel.

* The US signaled possible actions to ease pressure, including the potential release of oil from strategic reserves.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged sharply in the previous session, settling 8.04% higher at 295.6, driven largely by concerns that the escalating Middle East conflict could disrupt critical global gas supplies. Market uncertainty has intensified around the timeline for restoring full operations at QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest LNG export hub. With the Strait of Hormuz also closed, traders fear prolonged supply constraints that could tighten global availability. Prices also drew support from a larger-than-expected storage withdrawal in the United States and forecasts for warmer weather, which could lift near-term demand. At the same time, the Trump administration indicated it is evaluating measures to address rising energy prices linked to the geopolitical tensions in the region. On the supply side, gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, slightly up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. However, demand, including exports, is projected to decline from 124.0 bcfd this week to around 111.9 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, U.S. utilities withdrew 132 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for the week ending February 27, exceeding expectations of a 121 bcf draw. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 32.81% to 18,002 even as prices gained Rs.22. Natural gas now has support at 278.8, with a break below potentially testing 262. On the upside, resistance is seen at 305.5, and a move above this level could push prices toward 315.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 262-315.4.

* Natural gas climbed amid concerns that the Middle East conflict could cause prolonged disruptions to vital gas supplies.

* Uncertainty over the timeline for restoring full operations at QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan plant, has heightened fears of a potential supply shortfall.

* Additional support for prices has come from a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal, alongside warmer weather forecasts.

Copper

Copper prices edged slightly higher in the previous session, settling up 0.2% at 1197.2, supported mainly by short covering after earlier pressure linked to rising global inventories. Copper stocks in LME warehouses increased by another 2,450 tons to 284,325 tons, the highest level since October 2024, with fresh inflows reported in Singapore and New Orleans. Inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose 8.59% compared to last week, adding to supply concerns. In China, the world’s largest copper consumer, authorities announced a more modest economic growth target of 4.5%–5% as policymakers continue to manage deflationary pressures and the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. The country’s 15th Five-Year Plan highlighted increased spending on innovation, high-tech sectors, and scientific research, along with policies aimed at boosting household consumption. However, stronger-than-expected private factory data helped limit the downside for copper prices. Major banks remain bullish on the long-term outlook. Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast to $12,200 per ton by the end of 2026, while UBS expects prices to potentially reach $15,000 within the next 13 months amid a widening global supply deficit. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest declining by 1.87% to 16,046 while prices gained Rs.2.35. Copper has immediate support at 1190, with a break below possibly testing 1182.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1203.4, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1209.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1182.6-1209.4.

* Copper recovered on short covering after prices seen under pressure from high inventories.

* Copper stocks in LME warehouses climbed by another 2,450 tons to 284,325 tons, the most since October 2024.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 8.59% from last Friday, the exchange said

Zinc

Zinc prices ended the session higher, gaining 0.79% to settle at 323.85, supported mainly by tight supply conditions and ongoing concerns around mine disruptions and delays. Although inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.04% from last Friday, overall supply worries continued to underpin the market. Geopolitical tensions also kept traders cautious. The ongoing U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran has now entered its sixth day, adding uncertainty to global markets and strengthening the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar typically pressures base metals, and the rising risk aversion has created volatility across commodity markets. In China, authorities set a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5%–5%, slightly below last year’s 5% expansion, signaling a more measured growth outlook. The People’s Bank of China indicated it may use tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to support the economy if needed. Supply dynamics remain a key factor. The global zinc market recorded a deficit of 33,000 tons in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, though rising mine supply could shift the market into a small surplus this year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.11% to 4,025 while prices gained Rs.2.55. Zinc has immediate support at 321.5, with a break below potentially testing 319. On the upside, resistance is seen at 326.1, and a move above this level could push prices toward 328.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 319-328.2.

* Zinc gains as low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* China's central bank vows flexible, efficient cuts in reserve ratio, rates in 2026

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.04% from last Friday, the exchange said.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rallied strongly in the previous session, rising 2.81% to settle at 339.9 as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised fears of significant supply disruptions from the region. The Middle East accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminium production, and recent developments have heightened concerns over shipments. Both Qatari smelter Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) have declared force majeure on deliveries, citing their inability to ship amid the ongoing conflict and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply worries intensified further after Norway’s Norsk Hydro announced a controlled shutdown at its aluminium joint venture in Qatar. With the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran spreading across the region, the risk of further disruptions to metal shipments has increased. Reflecting these concerns, Bank of America raised its projected global aluminium supply shortfall for 2026 to 1.5 million tons from 1 million tons earlier. Inventory trends remain mixed. LME aluminium stocks fell by 2,250 tons to 456,875 tons, the lowest since July 2025, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories climbed 10.8% to 394,498 tons. Meanwhile, several major banks remain bullish, with Citi raising its price target and Morgan Stanley maintaining a positive outlook on tight supply conditions. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest dropping 7.59% to 4,247 while prices gained Rs.9.3. Aluminium has support at 333.3, with a break below potentially testing 326.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 343.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward 347.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 326.7-347.7.

* Aluminium rallied as the Mideast crisis threatened to cut off aluminium shipments from the region.

* Qatari smelter Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain have already declared force majeure on shipments.

* LME aluminium inventories slipped by 2,250 tons to 456,875 tons, the lowest since July 2025.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 2.32% to settle at 14,668, mainly due to expectations of higher arrivals in key markets such as Erode over the next 10–15 days. The market also felt pressure from an increase in acreage this season, supported by favourable rainfall during the sowing period. However, the downside remains somewhat limited as arrivals are still below normal and demand from both domestic and export markets continues to stay firm. India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is expected to see higher acreage but only moderate growth in overall supply. Weather irregularities and localized disease pressure have affected yields in some regions, particularly in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. At the all-India level, dried turmeric output is estimated at around 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks may limit the overall rise in availability. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at about 3.02 lakh hectares, around 4% higher year-on-year. Despite localized yield losses due to heavy rains and disease in certain pockets, production in Maharashtra is still expected to rise due to the larger planted area. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 1.07% to 18,480 while prices dropped by Rs.348. Turmeric has immediate support at 14,464, with a break below likely to test 14,262. On the upside, resistance is seen at 15,004, and a move above this level could push prices toward 15,342.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14262-15342.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15361.5 Rupees gained by 0.83 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices slipped by 1.42% to settle at 21,870 as the arrival of the new crop began in some markets, with supplies expected to increase further from March onward. The market also faced pressure from comfortable existing stocks and relatively weak export demand, as overseas buyers remain cautious and price-sensitive. Traders noted that much of the current export demand is being met from available inventories, which has limited fresh buying interest. Despite the decline, the downside appears somewhat limited due to lower sowing this season and tight arrivals in key markets. In Gujarat, cumin sowing has dropped by about 14.34% year-on-year to around 4.08 lakh hectares. As a result, national production for 2026 is estimated at around 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s output of about 1.10 crore bags. Meanwhile, reports of aphid infestation risks in parts of Rajasthan are also keeping market participants cautious. At the Unjha market, arrivals remain relatively low, and better-quality cumin continues to command premium prices. Additional support has come from the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, which may help boost domestic consumption and exports, particularly from the FMCG sector. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 14.32% to 3,234 while prices declined by Rs.315. Jeera has immediate support at 21,660, with a break below likely to test 21,460. On the upside, resistance is seen at 22,210, and a move above this level could push prices toward 22,560.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21460-22560.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21932.95 Rupees dropped by -0.28 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views