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Gold

Gold slipped 0.89% to settle at 159,709 as investors turned cautious ahead of further clarity on U.S.–Iran talks and reassessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts have faded, with markets now largely pricing in steady rates through April and assigning a higher probability to a July cut. Sticky inflation concerns continue to temper bullish sentiment. Trade developments are also in focus after U.S. officials signaled tariffs could rise to 15% where appropriate, adding another layer of uncertainty. Despite the short-term pullback, longer-term sentiment remains constructive. JP Morgan expects central bank and investor demand to push prices toward $6,300 per ounce by end-2026, while raising its long-term forecast to $4,500. Physical demand trends are mixed. Swiss gold exports fell 8% in January, with shipments to the UK dropping sharply, though flows to China and India improved. In India, volatile prices led to discounts of up to $18 per ounce, while ETF inflows more than doubled in January. China’s gold ETF holdings and central bank reserves also increased steadily through 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest marginally lower at 7,764. Support is seen at 158,480 and 157,260, while resistance stands at 160,890. A move above this could test 162,080.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 157260-162080.

* Gold prices dropped as investors awaited further details on U.S.-Iran talks.

* Gold to be supported via stronger inflation-hedging demand and a higher stock-bond correlation – WGC

* Financial speculation is evident and could lead to greater safe-haven demand, notably gold – WGC

Silver

Silver tumbled 3.22% to settle at 259,669 as investors turned cautious ahead of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks and growing expectations that U.S. interest rates may stay higher for longer. Comments from U.S. officials about potentially raising tariffs to 15% or more added to uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates unchanged next month amid persistent inflation concerns. U.S. labor market data remains relatively firm. Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 212,000, still below expectations, while continuing claims fell to 1.83 million, among the lowest levels in ten months. Fed officials have indicated little urgency to adjust policy, even as markets continue to price in three rate cuts this year. On the physical side, supply dynamics are tightening. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level in nearly a decade and sharply down from their 2021 peak. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,729 tonnes at the end of January, marginally lower month-on-month. Technically, the market is witnessing aggressive long liquidation, with open interest plunging 33.9% to 3,366. Immediate support is seen at 254,290 and 248,915, while resistance stands at 265,920. A rebound above this level could push prices toward 272,175.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 248915-272175.

* Silver dropped amid signs that US interest rates could remain on hold for some time.

* US Trade Representative Greer suggested that tariff rates for certain countries could rise to 15% or higher from the recently imposed 10%.

* The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates steady next month amid concerns about rising inflationary pressures.

Crude oil

Crude oil gained 1.07% to settle at 6,053 after Iranian state media signaled that Tehran would not allow enriched uranium to leave the country, adding a geopolitical premium to prices. Traders are balancing renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear talks against rising exports from major Middle Eastern producers. Saudi Arabia is set to ship its highest crude volumes in nearly three years, while Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have also ramped up exports. Attention now turns to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the group is expected to consider raising April output by 137,000 barrels per day. Despite the uptick, supply-side data remains heavy. The U.S. EIA reported a massive 15.99 million-barrel jump in crude inventories to 435.8 million barrels, the largest weekly build in three years. Stocks at Cushing also increased, while distillate inventories rose modestly and gasoline stocks declined by 1 million barrels. Meanwhile, the IEA slightly raised its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd, hinting at a narrower surplus. U.S. crude production is projected to ease after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down 7.36% to 14,972. Immediate support is placed at 5,875 and 5,697, while resistance is seen at 6,157. A sustained move above this could test 6,261.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5697-6261.

* Crude oil gained after Iranian state media said Tehran would not allow enriched uranium to leave the country.

* Meanwhile, upside capped amid expectations of a global supply surplus later this year.

* Saudi Arabia is poised to ship its highest volume of crude in nearly three years, while exports from Iraq, Kuwait, and UAE have climbed.

Natural gas

Natural gas fell 2.8% to settle at 257.1, pressured by milder weather forecasts that are expected to curb heating demand. Warmer conditions across much of the western U.S. through month-end have reduced expectations of any late-season cold snap, easing concerns about tight winter supplies. With winter nearing its end, demand from both residential heating and the power sector is softening. On the supply side, production remains robust. Output in the Lower 48 states is averaging 108.7 bcfd in February, up from January levels. LNG exports, however, continue to provide some support, holding strong at 18.7 bcfd and remaining on track for a monthly record. Storage data offered a mixed picture. U.S. utilities withdrew 52 bcf for the week ended February 20, slightly above expectations but sharply lower than the 252 bcf draw seen a year ago. Total inventories now stand at 2.018 tcf, 7.5% above year-ago levels and just 0.3% below the five-year average. The earlier storage deficit is narrowing quickly due to mild weather. Looking ahead, the EIA projects record production in 2026 and 2027, while demand is expected to hold steady near 91.6 bcfd. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 12.55% to 26,470. Support is seen at 252.8 and 248.6, while resistance stands at 261.7. A move above this could test 266.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 248.6-266.4.

* Natural gas slid on milder weather forecasts that should limit heating demand.

* US energy firms withdrew 52 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage, slightly above expectations for a 36 bcf draw.

* Production remains strong, with Lower 48 output averaging 108.7 bcfd in February, up from January.

Copper

Copper edged lower by 0.33% to settle at 1207.3, as traders booked profits and reassessed the near-term demand outlook in China. Physical buying remained muted after the Lunar New Year holidays, with several importers stepping back due to high prices. Many downstream fabricators are still ramping up operations, limiting immediate demand recovery. On the supply side, rising inventories added pressure. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses climbed to their highest level since 2024, while LME inventories rose to 253,600 tons, the highest since March 2025, following fresh inflows into the U.S. and South Korea. The global refined copper market remained in surplus, with the International Copper Study Group reporting a 173,000-ton surplus in December and a cumulative 380,000-ton surplus for the year. China’s unwrought copper imports fell 6.4% in 2025 to their lowest level since 2020, though domestic refined output continued to expand. Meanwhile, mine disruptions persisted in Chile and Peru, with production declining at Collahuasi, Escondida, and across Peru. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 3.03% to 17,051 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 1199, with a break below opening the door to 1190.6. Resistance stands at 1214.6, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1221.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1190.6-1221.8.

* Copper dropped as investors engaged in profit-taking while reassessing the demand outlook in China.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed to their highest levels since 2024.

* LME copper stocks rose to 253,600 tons after a further 4,000 tons of inflows in the United States and South Korea.

Zinc

Zinc slipped 0.47% to settle at 326.95, pressured by a firmer dollar and lingering concerns over China’s demand outlook. While markets reopened in China after the holidays, and traders anticipated some restocking activity, overall sentiment remained cautious amid mixed economic signals. Weak data from China continued to test investor confidence, even as the People’s Bank of China pledged stronger financial support to boost domestic demand and innovation. On the supply side, rising inventories capped gains. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks climbed 23.1% over the past week. Globally, however, fundamentals remain relatively tight. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a 33,000-ton deficit in 2025, narrowing from the previous year. Refined demand rose 1.9% to 13.86 million tons, while production increased 2.1%, largely driven by China. Mine output jumped 5.4%, supported by higher production in several countries and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine, along with ramp-ups at Kipushi in the DRC. Goldman Sachs expects a small surplus this year as mine supply expands, though it sees slower supply growth beyond 2027, potentially tightening the market again. Technically, zinc is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 0.36% to 3,934 contracts. Support is seen at 325.3 and 323.7, while resistance stands at 328.2. A move above this could push prices toward 329.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 323.7-329.5.

* Zinc dropped as a firmer dollar tempered optimism about a revival in demand from China.

* The global zinc market posted a deficit of 33,000 metric tons in 2025, down from a 69,000-ton shortfall in 2024.

* Refined zinc production grew 2.1%, spurred by a 6.1% increase in China, while output outside China dropped 1.6%, ILZSG said.

Aluminium

Aluminium slipped 0.34% to close at 312.1, as profit-taking and easing tariff concerns kept prices range-bound. Sentiment was weighed down by reports that former U.S. President Donald Trump may scale back some steel and aluminium tariffs, though optimism lingered after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs, raising hopes for smoother trade flows. On the supply front, Century Aluminum expects to restart its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland by the end of April—well ahead of schedule—adding to near-term supply expectations. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium output rose to 6.317 million tons in January, up from a year earlier, according to the International Aluminium Institute. The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a 57,000-ton surplus for December. In China, production remains strong, with December output hitting a record 3.87 million tons and full-year production exceeding 45 million tons, brushing against the government’s capacity cap. However, supply risks persist. South32 confirmed its Mozal plant in Mozambique will enter care and maintenance, and concerns remain over power availability for new smelters in Indonesia. Goldman Sachs has raised its first-half price outlook, citing low global inventories and steady demand growth. Technically, aluminium is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.36% to 4,506 contracts. Support is seen at 311.3 and 310.3, while resistance stands at 313.2, with a potential move toward 314.1 above that level.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 310.3-314.1.

* Aluminium dropped as Century Aluminum expects to resume operations at its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland.

* Global aluminium output rises 1.3% year on year in January – IAI

* China’s refined aluminium production maintained a steady trajectory in December 2025, reaching a record 3.87 million tons, up 2.9% year-on-year.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined 2.35% to settle at 15,596, weighed down by expectations of a sharp rise in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next 10–15 days. Improved acreage, supported by favourable rains, also added pressure. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. However, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, and both farmers and stockists are holding lower inventories, providing a cushion ahead of peak new crop supplies. Weather-related issues, including waterlogging and disease in parts of Maharashtra, have affected nearly 15% of the area, leading to localized yield losses of 15–20%. Despite this, all-India dried output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks cap the effective supply increase. Demand remains supportive. Exports during April–December 2025 rose 3.99% to 142,386 tonnes, while imports fell sharply by 41.54%, tightening domestic availability. In Nizamabad, spot prices rose 0.64% to Rs.15,833. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest slipping 0.36% to 18,155. Immediate support is seen at 15,340 and 15,080, while resistance stands at 16,025. A break above this could push prices toward 16,460.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15080-16456.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15833 Rupees gained by 0.64 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices fell 1.96% to settle at 22,055 as fresh arrivals of the new crop began entering select mandis, with supplies expected to gather momentum from March onward. Comfortable stock levels and subdued export interest also weighed on sentiment. Traders noted that current overseas demand remains largely price-sensitive, with most export orders being fulfilled from existing inventories. That said, downside appears limited. Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, and national production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s output is projected at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may produce 48–50 lakh bags. Rising aphid infestation risks in Rajasthan and slower sowing progress have added uncertainty to crop prospects. Farmers are estimated to hold around 20 lakh bags, though only 3–4 lakh bags may be traded before season-end, leaving tight carry-forward stocks. Exports during April–December 2025 declined 12.08% year-on-year to 145,137 tonnes, reflecting weak global buying despite lower output in countries like China, Syria, and Turkey. In Unjha, spot prices eased 0.26% to %Rs.22,192. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 2.38% to 4,392. Support is seen at 21,890 and 21,710, while resistance stands at 22,370. A move above this could test 22,670.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21710-22670.

* Jeera settled down as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22192.3 Rupees dropped by -0.26 percent.

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