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Gold

Gold prices ended sharply higher, settling up 2.22% at Rs 155,451, as investors continued to seek safe-haven exposure amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the start of U.S.–Iran talks in Oman. Sentiment was further supported by a clear deterioration in U.S. labour market data. January job cuts surged to 108.4K, the highest for the month since 2009, while initial jobless claims rose to 231K and ADP private payrolls missed expectations. This string of weak data has reinforced market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with June increasingly seen as the likely starting point. On the geopolitical front, the White House reiterated that President Donald Trump prefers a diplomatic route with Iran, keeping negotiations open while maintaining military options as a contingency, which continues to underpin gold’s risk premium. Physical market trends were mixed. In India, gold premiums more than halved from decade highs as volatility discouraged retail buying, while a pullback from record prices improved demand in China ahead of the Lunar New Year. Chinese data remained structurally supportive, with strong investment demand through bars, coins, ETFs, and continued central bank gold accumulation, even as jewelry consumption declined. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.98% alongside a price gain of Rs 3,380. Gold has immediate support at Rs 151,315, below which prices could test Rs 147,175. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 157,675, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward Rs 159,895.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147175-159895.

* Gold rose as markets have their eyes on the geopolitical situation in Middle East and talks between the U.S. and Iran.

* US job cuts reached 108.4K in January, the highest for the month since 2009.

* CME raises initial margin on its COMEX 100 gold futures to 9% from 8%

Silver

Silver prices closed sharply higher, settling up 2.49% at Rs 249,892, supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. labour market data and rising expectations of easier monetary policy. Recent data reinforced the slowdown narrative, with ADP reporting just 22K private-sector jobs added in January, well below expectations, while JOLTS job openings fell to 6.54 million, signalling cooling demand for labour. These indicators have strengthened market conviction that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates, with traders now pricing in at least two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026. Geopolitical undertones also lent support, as the White House reiterated that diplomacy remains President Donald Trump’s preferred approach toward Iran, while keeping military options open. On the supply side, China shipped around 5,100 metric tons of silver in 2025, the highest since 2008, even as domestic stockpiles dropped to decade lows. This drawdown has raised concerns over global liquidity, particularly with borrowing costs still elevated in London despite rising vault holdings. Fundamentally, sentiment turned more constructive after Citi raised its 0–3 month silver forecast to $150 per ounce, maintaining a bullish stance relative to gold. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.17% alongside a Rs 6,077 price jump. Silver finds support at Rs 235,620, below which Rs 221,350 may be tested, while resistance stands at Rs 257,725, with a breakout opening upside toward s 265,560.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 221350-265560.

* Silver gains as weak US labour data and higher hopes of Fed cuts have provided some support to prices.

* White House said that diplomacy is US President Donald Trump's first choice for dealing with Iran.

* CME raises initial margin on its COMEX 5000 silver futures to 18% from 15%

Crude oil

Crude oil prices ended modestly higher, settling up 1.36% at Rs 5,824, as traders remained cautious while closely tracking developments in U.S.–Iran talks. Tensions stayed elevated after the U.S. advised its citizens to leave Iran, keeping geopolitical risk firmly in focus. At the same time, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its key crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, pointing to signs of oversupply, although the smaller-than-expected cut suggested confidence in underlying demand. Looking ahead, OPEC+ expects global oil demand to improve gradually from March or April and will decide on March 1 whether to resume monthly output increases after pausing supply hikes in the first quarter. Coordination among key producers also remained evident, with Russia and Saudi Arabia reaffirming deeper cooperation. Demand signals improved as the International Energy Agency raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 930,000 bpd, while trimming supply growth expectations, implying a narrower surplus. U.S. fundamentals offered support, with crude inventories falling 3.46 million barrels, the largest draw since October, and distillate stocks plunging sharply. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 2.24% alongside a price rise. Crude oil finds support at Rs 5,693, below which Rs 5,561 could be tested, while resistance stands at Rs 5,912, and a breakout may push prices toward Rs 5,999.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5561-5999.

* Crude oil gains as traders focused on the progress of U.S.-Iran talks before making big moves

* Saudi Arabia cut prices for its main crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, signaling oversupply.

* IEA revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts higher in its latest monthly oil market report.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher, settling up 0.91% at Rs 320.2, supported by stronger flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminals and upward revisions to near-term demand expectations. The rise came despite forecasts calling for generally warmer-than-normal weather through mid-February, which is expected to cap heating demand. After last week’s Arctic blast, temperatures across most regions are projected to normalize, although the U.S. Northeast may continue to see below-normal conditions for another week. On the supply side, average gas output in the Lower 48 states ticked up slightly to 106.4 bcfd so far in February, still below the record 109.7 bcfd seen in December. LSEG estimates total gas demand, including exports, will ease from 160.0 bcfd this week to 140.9 bcfd next week, reflecting the expected moderation in weather-driven consumption. Storage data remained a key focus, with U.S. utilities withdrawing a record 360 bcf in the week ended January 30, sharply exceeding seasonal norms and tightening near-term balances. Longer-term outlooks remain mixed. The EIA expects U.S. gas production to rise to fresh records in 2026 and 2027, while domestic consumption is projected to edge lower, partly offset by steadily rising LNG exports. From a technical standpoint, the market is seeing short covering, as open interest dropped 8.71% alongside higher prices. Natural gas has support at Rs 311, below which Rs 301.9 could be tested, while resistance is seen at Rs 330.8, with a breakout opening the way toward Rs 341.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 301.9-341.5.

* Natural gas jumped on increases in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.

* That price increase came despite forecasts for the weather to turn warmer than normal through mid-February.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states edged up to 106.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.

Copper

Copper prices finished higher, settling up 1.21% at Rs 1,242.85, as sentiment improved after China signalled plans to expand its strategic copper reserves and explore a state-led commercial stockpiling system. The move reinforced expectations of stronger policy-backed demand at a time when longer-term fundamentals remain constructive. Adding to the bullish tone, Chile’s copper commission Cochilco raised its average price forecast for this year to $4.95 per pound, citing firm demand prospects, a weaker dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks. It now expects prices to average $5.00 per pound in 2027. On the supply front, Chile is expected to lift output by 3.7% this year, while Zambia reported an 8% rise in 2025 production. These gains were partly offset by weaker numbers from Peru, where copper output fell 11.2% year-on-year in November. However, rising global inventories capped upside momentum. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose for a ninth straight week to 248,911 tons, while LME and Comex inventories also continued to climb, with Comex stocks at record highs. The International Copper Study Group reported a wider refined copper surplus, highlighting near-term balance pressure despite supportive policy signals. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.88% alongside higher prices. Copper has support at Rs 1,221.9, below which Rs 1,200.9 could be tested, while resistance is seen at Rs 1,254.6, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs 1,266.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1200.9-1266.3.

* Copper prices gained as China will expand its strategic copper reserves.

* Copper stocks sitting in SHFE warehouses climbed for a ninth week, the longest rising streak since March 2024.

* LME copper stocks rose to 183,275 tons, the highest since May 2025, following further deliveries into South Korea and New Orleans.

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher, settling up 1.69% at Rs 325.65, as investors focused on near-term supply disruptions and the prospect of tighter availability around the Chinese New Year. Several mines in China have announced temporary production stoppages for the holiday season, with operations in southwest and central regions expected to cut zinc concentrate output by more than 2,000 tonnes in metal content before restarting in March. These interruptions helped underpin prices, even as broader fundamentals remained mixed. Upside, however, looks capped by ample supply and soft demand signals. China turned a net exporter of refined zinc in November and December, shipping 78,500 tonnes in the fourth quarter, mainly to Asian hubs hosting LME warehouses. At the same time, global mine output rose 6.5% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, aided by the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine and steady ramp-up at the Kipushi project in the DRC. Chinese smelters have also been quick to respond to higher prices, pushing refined zinc production to a record 675,000 tonnes in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, while full-year output climbed nearly 6%. Inventory trends reflect this supply response, with SHFE stocks rising 8.5% week-on-week. Although the ILZSG reported a slightly wider market deficit in November, the refined zinc market remains in surplus for the year to date. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing fresh buying, with open interest edging up 0.26% alongside higher prices. Zinc has support at Rs 320, below which Rs 314.4 could be tested, while resistance stands at Rs 328.9, and a breakout may open the way toward Rs 332.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 314.4-332.2.

* Zinc prices gained as investors saw supply concerns and demand prospects remain supportive for the metal.

* As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, a zinc mine in Southwest China suspended production in early February.

* China turned net exporter of refined zinc in November and December after a vicious squeeze on the LME contract in October.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices closed higher, settling up 1.59% at Rs 312.2, supported by signs of tightening global supply alongside improving demand sentiment. Optimism was reinforced after Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price outlook to $3,150 per tonne, citing low global inventories, power constraints for new smelters in Indonesia, and steady demand growth. Supply concerns were further heightened by production disruptions at key smelters in Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia, limiting near-term availability. That said, upside may be capped as inventory pressures build. In China, refined aluminium production remained strong, hitting a record 3.87 million tonnes in December, up 2.9% year-on-year, while full-year output exceeded 45 million tonnes, despite capacity caps. Rising output has pushed inventories higher, with Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks jumping 13.1% week-on-week, and aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports also edging up. Market participants expect social inventories to peak after the Lunar New Year at the highest level in nearly three years. Demand indicators from China remain supportive. Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.3 in January, reflecting stronger output and new orders, aided by accommodative monetary policy, including a lower MLF rate and signals of further easing in 2026. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing fresh buying, with open interest up 0.25% alongside a Rs 4.9 price rise. Aluminium finds support at Rs 307.3, below which Rs 302.3 could be tested, while resistance is placed at Rs 315, and a break above could push prices toward Rs 317.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 302.3-317.7.

* Aluminium gains as tightening global supply coincided with growing demand.

* Goldman Sachs lifted its first-half outlook for the light metal to $3,150 a ton from $2,575.

* Support also seen as investor optimism reflects early signs of economic stabilization after Beijing’s support for key sectors.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices corrected sharply, settling 4.1% lower at Rs 16,046, as the market reacted to an increase in acreage following favourable rains during the current sowing season. While higher planting has raised expectations of improved availability, actual supply growth is likely to remain moderate. Weather irregularities, unseasonal rainfall and disease pressure have offset part of the acreage gains, particularly in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, where yields have been impacted. Arrivals remain below normal and downside appears limited, as both farmers and stockists are reported to be holding much lower inventories. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the national level, dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season, but lower carry-forward stocks are expected to cap overall availability. Despite localized yield losses of 15–20% in parts of Marathwada, higher acreage could still lift Maharashtra’s production, while other states are also seen contributing higher volumes. Demand remains a key support, with strong domestic consumption and steady export interest from Europe and the U.S. Export performance has been robust, with shipments during April–November 2025 rising nearly 5% year-on-year. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 0.5% alongside a Rs 686 price decline. Turmeric finds support at Rs15,664, below whichRs 15,280 could be tested, while resistance is placed at Rs 16,616, and a move above this level may push prices toward Rs 17,184.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15280-17184.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16055.6 Rupees dropped by -0.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged lower, settling 0.4% down at Rs 23,715, even as underlying supply-side concerns continue to lend support to the market. Weather issues and delayed sowing, particularly in Gujarat, are keeping sentiment firm. Jeera sowing in Gujarat is estimated at 3.98 lakh hectares, down 16.3% year-on-year, making this one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years as fields remain unprepared. At Unjha, arrivals are extremely low, and good-quality cumin continues to fetch premium prices. However, upside remains capped due to comfortable existing stocks and muted export demand. Although export inquiries from Gulf countries and China have improved marginally, buyers remain price-sensitive. Much of the current export demand is being met from old stocks, with traders noting that the retail season has ended and foreign buying remains sluggish. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to trade, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower due to reduced acreage, with total output seen at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year. Exports during April–November 2025 declined over 10% year-on-year, reflecting weak overseas demand despite supply disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. From a technical perspective, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 1.92% alongside a Rs 95 price drop. Jeera has support at Rs 23,540, below which Rs 23,350 could be tested, while resistance is seen at Rs 24,010, and a move above may push prices toward Rs 24,290.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23350-24290.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* Export demand from Gulf countries and China has improved a bit but is still price-sensitive.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23483.75 Rupees dropped by -0.43 percent.

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