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Gold

Gold prices edged lower, settling down by 0.25% at 138,912, weighed by a firm U.S. dollar and fading expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Market sentiment remained cautious as policymakers indicated that the interest rate trajectory will largely depend on inflation trends, with the possibility of both hikes or cuts still on the table depending on geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, uncertainty around Middle East tensions persisted after Iran denied any negotiations with the U.S., despite earlier signals of diplomatic engagement. On the fundamental side, COMEX gold inventories declined sharply to 16.51 million ounces, the lowest since November, marking a significant drop from last year’s peak. However, ETF holdings saw mild outflows, indicating some softening in investment demand. At the same time, money managers increased net-long positions, reflecting selective bullish sentiment. Physical demand trends remained mixed, with Indian discounts narrowing slightly due to festive buying, while premiums in China eased amid softer consumption. Central bank interest continues to provide underlying support, although elevated prices may moderate fresh buying. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 10.75% to 4,473. Immediate support is seen at 136,540, with a break below potentially testing 134,160. On the upside, resistance stands at 141,050, and a move above this level could push prices toward 143,180.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 134160-143180.

* Gold prices fell pressured by a firm U.S. dollar and fading hopes for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

* Investors trimmed bets on a Fed rate hike in December to roughly 13%, from just above 25% in the prior session

* Registered COMEX gold inventory fell to 16.51 MOz, lowest since November 6.

Silver

Silver prices slipped by 0.54% to settle at 223,941, as ongoing Middle East tensions continued to keep markets on edge. Although the U.S. delayed planned strikes on Iran, citing positive discussions, Tehran dismissed the claim, and uncertainty remains high. Reports suggesting possible involvement from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with continued Israeli military intentions, have kept geopolitical risks elevated. Despite this, silver is still hovering near its lowest levels since December, weighed down by rising energy prices and persistent inflation concerns. The broader macro environment is also limiting upside. With expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts now pushed further out, markets are increasingly preparing for a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy globally. Fed officials have emphasized a flexible approach, noting that a prolonged conflict could simultaneously drive inflation higher while weakening the labor market, complicating policy decisions. On the supply side, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,065 tonnes at the end of February, down 2.4% from the previous month, reflecting a modest drawdown. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.81% to 5,974. Immediate support is seen at 215,850, with a break below opening the door toward 207,750. On the upside, resistance is placed at 229,760, and a move above this level could push prices toward 235,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 207750-235570.

* Silver dropped as Middle East uncertainty continued to drive market volatility.

* Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, said the US interest rate outlook depends on inflation.

* Fed’s Daly said ‌that unless the Iran conflict resolves quickly and the Fed can simply "look through" a temporary increase in oil prices.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices moved sharply higher, gaining 4.69% to settle at 8,736, as supply disruptions in the Middle East continued to dominate market sentiment. Tensions remain elevated after Iran denied engaging in any negotiations with the U.S., contradicting earlier claims of possible progress. The situation has kept uncertainty high, especially with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, a critical route for global oil flows. In response, Saudi Arabia has ramped up exports from its Yanbu port to nearly 4 million barrels per day, redirecting crude via the East-West pipeline to bypass disruptions. Much of this supply is being directed toward Asian markets. Meanwhile, Japan is preparing to tap into joint oil reserves as part of emergency measures to counter supply shortages. Prices have already surged to multi-year highs following recent military strikes, underscoring the severity of the disruption. On the data front, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.16 million barrels to 449.3 million, marking the fourth consecutive weekly build. Stocks at Cushing also increased, while refinery activity improved slightly. However, declines in gasoline and distillate inventories point to steady demand. Russian production edged lower, though exports to India are beginning to recover after temporary sanction relief. Technically, the market is seeing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 2.05% to 14,322. Immediate support is at 8,480, with a break lower potentially testing 8,223. Resistance stands at 8,917, and a move above this level could push prices toward 9,097.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8223-9097.

* Crude oil rose as the world's ‌biggest supply disruption persisted as Iran denied it had talks with the U.S. to end the war.

* Japan plans to start releasing oil from joint stockpiles held by producing nations in the country by the end of March.

* Crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia's western Yanbu port rose to nearly 4 million barrels per day last week.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher by 1.8% to settle at 277.6, supported mainly by weather-driven dynamics. Forecasts pointing to above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. through early April are expected to curb heating demand, but the market found support as traders positioned around shifting supply-demand expectations. Geopolitical developments remain on the radar, though their impact on natural gas has been relatively muted so far. Despite ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty around U.S.-Iran relations, prices have stayed broadly stable since late February, largely due to ample domestic inventories and limited short-term exposure to global disruptions. Fundamentally, supply remains strong. U.S. gas output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 109.6 bcfd so far in March, slightly higher than February levels and close to record highs. At the same time, storage levels are comfortable, with inventories running 10.4% above last year and 2.6% above the five-year average. A 35 bcf build in storage further reflects easing heating demand as winter winds down. Looking ahead, the EIA expects production to rise to record levels in the coming years, even as domestic consumption softens slightly. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 8.17% to 7,389. Immediate support is seen at 272.2, with a break lower potentially testing 266.8. On the upside, resistance stands at 281.8, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 286.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 266.8-286.

* Natural gas rose on warmer weather forecasts that are set to curb heating demand.

* Forecasts indicated that temperatures will remain above seasonal averages across the western two-thirds of the US through April 1.

* Latest EIA data showed US gas stockpiles at 10.4% above year-ago levels and 2.6% above the five-year average.

Copper

Copper prices edged slightly lower, slipping 0.17% to settle at 1,119.35, as concerns over the broader economic impact of the Iran conflict continued to weigh on sentiment. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation worries and raising the risk of slower global growth, which has kept pressure on industrial metals. This comes even after the brief rally earlier in the week following the delay in U.S. strikes. Despite the weakness, there are some supportive signals from China. Copper has corrected nearly 10% on the LME this month, attracting buying interest, while inventories in Shanghai warehouses declined for the first time since December. The Yangshan premium has also climbed to $48 per ton, indicating improving import demand. However, this optimism is being offset by rising inventories on the LME, which have reached 334,100 tons, the highest since 2019, highlighting ample near-term supply. Market outlooks remain mixed. Citi has turned cautious, expecting prices to ease toward $11,000 in the near term, while Goldman Sachs and UBS maintain a more bullish longer-term view, citing potential supply deficits and steady demand growth. On the technical front, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 13.1% to 6,988. Immediate support is seen at 1,106.5, with a break below likely to test 1,093.7. Resistance is placed at 1,128.3, and a move above could push prices toward 1,137.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1093.7-1137.3.

* Copper prices fell as concerns over the Iran war’s impact on global growth and inflation weighed on markets.

* Prices fell despite Monday’s spike on Trump’s postponed strikes.

* Copper is down 10% this month, attracting Chinese buying, while inventories fell sharply last week.

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped by 0.56% to settle at 308.6, as concerns over the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict continued to weigh on broader industrial metal sentiment. Rising oil prices have added to inflation worries and raised doubts about global growth, keeping upside limited despite some supportive cues from China. There are mixed signals on the demand-supply front. On one hand, sentiment improved slightly after the delay in U.S. strikes and signs of recovery in China, where industrial output rose 6.3% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026. On the other hand, zinc inventories in China have climbed to multi-year highs, and stocks on both the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME are rising, highlighting ongoing supply pressure. Globally, the market has shifted into a small surplus, with January showing a 9,200-ton excess, according to ILZSG data. Supply dynamics remain active, with the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine and increased output from projects like Kipushi adding to availability. Still, concerns about tight supply in certain regions and longer-term deficits are offering some underlying support. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 25.08% to 487. Immediate support is seen at 307.4, with a break below likely to test 306.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at 310.8, and a move above could push prices toward 312.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 306.1-312.9.

* Zinc prices dropped as Middle East war fears fueled global inflation and growth concerns.

* However, sentiment in China remained supported by Trump’s decision to delay the strikes and by hopes of improving demand.

* The global zinc market swung to a surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January from a deficit of 75,100 tons in December.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged slightly higher, gaining 0.21% to settle at 331.6, supported mainly by fresh concerns over raw material supply. Guinea’s consideration of bauxite export quotas has raised fears about feedstock availability, especially given its dominant share in global supply. Ongoing disruptions in the Middle East have further added to uncertainty, although gains were capped as oil prices rebounded after Iran denied any negotiations with the U.S. On the supply side, developments remain mixed. While some Middle East producers have curtailed output, including partial shutdowns and reduced operating rates, others have adapted by securing alternative export routes. At the same time, increased production from facilities like the Lochaber smelter and expectations of restarts in other regions are adding to global supply. Inventories remain elevated, with primary aluminium stocks crossing 1.3 million tons, the highest since 2020, reflecting subdued demand conditions. Demand signals are somewhat weak, as higher prices and energy costs continue to weigh on consumption. This is evident in declining imports by China, even as domestic production rises on improved profitability. However, premiums in Europe and Japan have surged, indicating tightness in certain physical markets. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 17.74% to 770. Immediate support is seen at 328.6, with a break below likely testing 325.6. On the upside, resistance stands at 334.3, and a move above could push prices toward 337.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 325.6-337.

* Aluminium gained as Guinea considered imposing bauxite export quotas, stoking feedstock supply concerns.

* Alvance British Aluminium has boosted output by ~10% at its Lochaber smelter in Fort William, Scotland.

* EGA secured alternative export routes to the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, easing some of the immediate worries.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged slightly lower, slipping 0.35% to settle at 14,168, as expectations of higher arrivals in Erode over the next couple of weeks weighed on sentiment. The increase in acreage, supported by favorable rains, has also added some pressure. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric area is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with production seen at 11.41 lakh tonnes. That said, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, while both domestic and export demand remain firm. Lower carry-forward stocks and reduced holdings by farmers and stockists are providing a strong base to prices. Weather disruptions, including heavy rainfall and disease issues, have impacted yields in key states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, with nearly 15% of the crop affected in some regions. At the national level, dried turmeric output is projected at around 90 lakh bags, higher than last season, but quality concerns and localized crop damage continue to influence supply. Export trends remain mixed, with short-term weakness but stable cumulative demand, while imports have declined significantly, reflecting reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing mild long liquidation, with open interest easing slightly. Immediate support is seen at 14,016, with further downside toward 13,864, while resistance is placed at 14,360 and a move above this level could push prices toward 14,552.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13864-14552.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14676.25 Rupees dropped by -0.57 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices moved slightly higher, gaining 0.76% to settle at 21,945, supported by weather concerns in key producing regions. The India Meteorological Department has warned of rising temperatures and potential heatwaves in North Gujarat, which could impact seed development in late-sown crops and further trim yields. Overall production is already expected to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year, with Gujarat output likely to drop sharply due to lower acreage and yields, although Rajasthan may partially offset this with higher production. Despite these supply-side concerns, the upside remains capped. Fresh arrivals of the new crop have begun and are expected to accelerate through March, adding near-term pressure. Export demand continues to be weak, with January shipments down 48% year-on-year and cumulative exports also showing a notable decline. Adequate existing stocks and subdued buying interest from overseas markets are weighing on sentiment. That said, strong demand for premium-quality cumin and logistical challenges in competing producing countries are providing some underlying support. Weather risks, pest concerns like aphid infestation, and lower sowing in Gujarat also keep supply tight in the medium term. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down by 4.4%. Immediate support is seen at 21,740, with further downside toward 21,540, while resistance is placed at 22,120 and a breakout could push prices to 22,300.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21540-22300.

* Jeera gained as IMD heatwave warning for Gujarat growing belts threaten late-sown crops

* Production is expected to decline by approximately 5 percent to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year.

* Rajasthan’s output is projected to rise 15 per cent to 3.29 lt, supported by a 4 per cent rise in area.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21842.8 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.