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Gold

Gold prices edged lower by 0.32% to settle at 1,44,492, extending their recent weakness as rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns shifted market expectations toward a more hawkish monetary outlook. Escalation in the Middle East, including increased U.S. military deployment, pushed energy prices higher and raised fears of persistent inflation, prompting markets to price in a higher probability of a rate hike later this year. This has lifted bond yields and strengthened the dollar, both of which have weighed on gold. Despite its safe-haven appeal, gold has struggled, with prices declining consistently since the onset of the conflict. Investors have also been booking profits and reallocating funds to cover losses in other asset classes. Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have maintained a cautious stance, signaling that rate cuts will remain on hold until inflation shows clearer signs of easing. In the physical market, discounts in India narrowed slightly to around $75 per ounce amid some festive demand, though overall buying remained subdued. In contrast, premiums in China softened as demand cooled. Central bank purchases also slowed, with net buying at 5 tonnes in January, although long-term accumulation trends remain intact. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling by 6.97% to 5,992 while prices declined Rs.462. Immediate support is seen at 1,42,435, with further downside toward 1,40,375. Resistance is placed at 1,47,505, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 1,50,515.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 140375-150515.

* Gold tumbled as escalating Middle East tensions sent energy prices soaring and dashed hopes for near-term interest rate cuts.

* Fed’s Waller: Do not think there is a need to consider rate hikes

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the possibility of a rate hike has come up in policy committee discussions.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 2.03% to settle at 2,26,772, pressured by rising inflation concerns driven by surging energy prices amid escalating Middle East tensions. Higher oil prices have intensified worries about persistent inflation, prompting investors to shift toward the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, which in turn weighed on precious metals. The broader macro environment has also turned less supportive. Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ECB, BOJ, and BOE, have maintained interest rates but signaled a more hawkish stance, indicating that rate cuts may be delayed until inflation shows clear signs of easing. Markets are now pushing expectations for U.S. rate cuts further out, while also pricing in potential rate hikes from European central banks this year. This shift in outlook has reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver. On the economic front, U.S. labor data remained resilient, with initial jobless claims falling to 205,000, reinforcing the view of a stable economy and supporting the case for tighter policy. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults declined by 2.4% to 27,065 tonnes, indicating some tightening in physical inventories. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 1.45% to 6,222 while prices fell sharply. Immediate support is seen at 2,20,050, with further downside toward 2,13,330. Resistance is placed at 2,36,745, and a move above this level could push prices toward 2,46,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 213330-246720.

* Silver fell as surging energy prices fueled inflation concerns and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts.

* Fed kept rates unchanged, signaling that cuts are unlikely until inflation shows clear easing.

* The ECB, BOJ, and BOE also left rates steady but struck more hawkish tones, indicating a bias toward tighter policy.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices jumped 2.89% to settle at 9,258, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and rising concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. Iraq’s declaration of force majeure on oilfields operated by foreign firms, along with increased U.S. military deployment in the region, has heightened fears of prolonged supply constraints. The situation is further complicated by risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although several global economies have stepped in to support safe passage. The International Energy Agency cautioned that restoring disrupted oil and gas flows could take up to six months, suggesting markets may be underestimating the severity of the situation. Despite this, some supply-side relief is expected as strategic reserves are being tapped, with a significant release planned globally. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose sharply by 6.16 million barrels, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase, even as gasoline and distillate stocks declined, indicating steady demand. On the production front, Russia’s output edged slightly lower, while Kazakhstan reported a notable recovery in production. Refinery activity in the U.S. also improved, with utilization rates ticking higher. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 12.88% to 16,574 while prices rose ?260. Immediate support is seen at 8,911, with further downside toward 8,563. Resistance is placed at 9,448, and a move above this level could push prices toward 9,637.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8563-9637.

* Crude oil rose as Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil firms and the Iran war escalated

* Leading European nations, Japan and Canada offered to join efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the ‌Strait of Hormuz.

* IEA’s Birol warned that it could take up to six months to restore oil and gas flows from the Middle East Gulf.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 2.5% to settle at 288.1, as easing geopolitical tensions and signals of potential supply increases weighed on the market. The U.S. hinted at measures to boost supply, including the possibility of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing additional crude reserves. At the same time, reduced military escalation in the Middle East helped calm fears of immediate supply disruptions, even after recent attacks on key LNG infrastructure. On the fundamentals side, rising U.S. production continues to pressure prices. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 109.8 bcfd so far in March, while weather forecasts point to warmer-than-normal conditions through early April, keeping heating demand subdued. Demand is expected to fall from 123.6 bcfd this week to 112.2 bcfd next week, reflecting seasonal weakness. Storage data further reinforced the bearish tone, with the EIA reporting a 35 bcf build, indicating that the withdrawal season is nearing its end. Looking ahead, the EIA projects record production in 2026, even as demand softens slightly, although LNG exports are expected to grow steadily. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 16.85% to 10,528 while prices dropped Rs.7.4. Immediate support is seen at 283.4, with a break below likely testing 278.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at 295.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 302.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 278.7-302.5.

* Natural gas prices dropped after the US signaled potential measures to increase supply.

* EIA’s latest report showed a 35bcf increase in storage, suggesting that heating demand is starting to ease as winter winds down.

* China Jan-Feb natural gas production +2.9% pct y/y at 44.6 cubic metres -stats bureau

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.36% to settle at 1,108, as rising oil prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about inflation and global growth. The spike in energy costs has reinforced a more cautious stance from central banks, with policymakers signaling that inflation risks may delay or even reverse expectations of rate cuts. This has weighed on sentiment across the base metals complex. On the supply side, inventories remain a mixed factor. Stocks in LME warehouses have climbed to 334,100 tonnes, their highest level since 2019, indicating ample near-term availability and putting pressure on prices. However, inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 5.2% over the past week, offering some support. Fundamentally, the outlook remains constructive. Stronger-than-expected factory data from China and post-Lunar New Year restocking, particularly from the power sector, are expected to support demand. Major institutions continue to hold a bullish medium-term view, citing tightening supply-demand dynamics and a widening market deficit in the coming years. Trade data shows China’s copper imports declined 16.1% year-on-year in early 2026, while concentrate imports rose, reflecting shifting procurement patterns. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling by 11.87% to 10,494 while prices slipped ?3.95. Immediate support is seen at 1,093.1, with further downside toward 1,078. Resistance is placed at 1,128.8, and a move above this could push prices toward 1,149.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1078-1149.4.

* Copper dropped as the Middle East war fuels fears of higher inflation and a hit to global growth amid surging oil prices.

* China Jan-Feb refined copper output up 9% y/y at 2.47 mln metric tons - stats bureau

* Shanghai warehouse copper stocks down 5.2%

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.34% to settle at 307.65, supported mainly by ongoing concerns around tight supply conditions, including mine closures and project delays. However, the upside remained capped as broader sentiment across industrial metals stayed cautious due to growing fears about the global economic impact of the ongoing Iran conflict. On the supply side, zinc inventories in China continued to build, with stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising 3.3% week-on-week, reflecting persistent supply pressure and weaker-than-expected demand recovery. Similarly, rising inventories in LME warehouses and a firm US dollar added to the downside pressure. Still, some support came from China’s improving industrial activity, with output rising 6.3% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026. Additionally, developments like the restart of the Tara mine in Ireland and ramp-up at the Kipushi project in Congo point to gradually improving supply. From a broader perspective, the global zinc market remained in a modest deficit of 33,000 tonnes in 2025, even as production and demand both grew steadily. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects a slight surplus in 2026, though supply growth could slow again in later years. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 17.06% to 992 while prices moved higher. Zinc is now finding support at 305.1, with further downside toward 302.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 310.4, and a breakout could push prices toward 313.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 302.4-313.

* Zinc gains amid a low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* China Jan-Feb zinc output 5.4% y/y at 1.198 mln metric tons - stats bureau

* Peru’s zinc concentrates production was 105,300 mt in metal content in January 2026, down 19.3% MoM and up 14.7% YoY.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.26% to settle at 331.3, supported by ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. Output cuts added to concerns, with Aluminium Bahrain initiating a phased shutdown of around 19% of its capacity, while Qatalum continues to operate at reduced levels near 60%. At the same time, Emirates Global Aluminium managed to secure alternative export routes, helping ease immediate supply risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz. On the supply side, concerns remain elevated as Guinea considers imposing bauxite export quotas, which could tighten raw material availability. However, the upside is being capped by weak demand signals. Global inventories have climbed above 1.3 million tonnes—the highest since 2020—while buyers are largely sticking to hand-to-mouth purchases amid high prices and rising energy costs. This is also reflected in softer import data from China, where February imports fell 10% year-on-year, even as domestic production rose 3% in the first two months of 2026. In the physical market, premiums remain firm, with European duty-paid premiums hitting $450 per tonne and Japanese buyers agreeing to significantly higher quarterly premiums, indicating tight near-term availability. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 26.3% to 1188 while prices moved slightly higher. Aluminium is finding support at 328.2, with further downside at 325.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at 335.4, and a break above this level could push prices toward 339.5.

Trading Ideas:

# Aluminium trading range for the day is 325.1-339.5.

# Aluminium gains as conflict in the Middle East has already hit output.

# Aluminium Bahrain said it is exporting metal via the Saudi port of Jeddah as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut.

# China Jan-Feb alumina output up 0.2% y/y at 15.18 mln metric tons - stats bureau

Turmeric

Turmeric prices slipped by 1.42% to settle at 14,532, mainly under pressure from expectations of a sharp rise in arrivals at Erode over the next 10–15 days. Higher acreage, supported by favourable rains during the sowing season, also weighed on sentiment. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. However, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, and both domestic and export demand remain firm. Farmers and stockists have already reduced inventories, which is providing a cushion to prices. Weather-related issues, including waterlogging and disease, have impacted yields across key producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. Despite this, total dried production is estimated at 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last year, though lower carry-forward stocks are restricting overall availability. Export trends remain mixed, with January shipments down 19% year-on-year, while cumulative exports for Apr–Jan are slightly higher. Imports have declined sharply, reflecting reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 1.83% to 17,535 while prices dropped Rs.210. Immediate support is seen at 14,352, with a break below likely testing 14,174. On the upside, resistance is placed at 14,778, and a move above this could push prices toward 15,026.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14174-15026.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15041.9 Rupees dropped by -1.1 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices remained largely flat, slipping marginally by 0.05% to settle at 22,145, as the market balanced rising arrivals with underlying supply concerns. The arrival of the new crop has started in key mandis, and supplies are expected to increase further through March, keeping a lid on prices. Additionally, comfortable stock levels and weak export demand continue to weigh on sentiment. Sowing in Gujarat has been notably slow this season, down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, mainly due to delayed field readiness. Production is estimated to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes. Gujarat’s output may drop sharply, while Rajasthan is expected to offset some losses with a 15% rise in production. Weather issues and pest risks, particularly aphid infestations, are also emerging concerns. On the demand side, export performance remains weak. January exports fell sharply by 48% year-on-year, while cumulative shipments for Apr–Jan are down 15%, reflecting subdued global demand and reduced buying interest. Despite lower global supplies from countries like Syria and Turkey, Indian exports have yet to pick up momentum. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 2.85% to 6,825 while prices eased slightly. Immediate support is seen at 22,070, with a break below likely testing 22,000. Resistance is placed at 22,250, and a move above this level could push prices toward 22,360.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22000-22360.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22074 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent.