Gold and silver poised for the next leg of their rally - Monarch PMS
Gold and silver poised for the next leg of their rally - Monarch PMS
Gold seen at $4,300-$4,700, silver at $70-$85 by year-end in base case, bull case pegs gold at $5,600, silver $120 by year-end; bear case puts gold at $3,400-$3,900 with silver at $45-$55/oz
28th August, Mumbai: In its recent report, Monarch PMS expects gold to be in the range of $4,300- $4,700/oz and silver at $70-$85/oz by end-2026 as its base case, with a 55% probability. The scenario assumes the US Federal Reserve holds rates through September, energy prices normalise, real yields plateau and central banks maintain purchases of around 250 tonnes a quarter.
The bear case, with a 20% probability, sees gold at $3,400-$3,900/oz and silver at $45-$55/oz if the Fed delivers a rate hike in September, oil falls further, and disinflation turns into demand weakness. The principal headwind is the 10-year TIPS real yield, which stands at 2.41% and remains a genuine competing return to a zero-coupon asset such as gold.
In the bull case, assigned a 25% probability, gold could reach $5,000-$5,600/oz and silver $95- $120/oz if weakness in the labour-market forces the Fed to ease repo rates, real yields roll over, institutional reallocation into precious metals resumes and physical tightness in silver returns. Silver's supply-demand fundamentals also remain supportive, with a sixth consecutive annual deficit, 762 million ounces drawn from above-ground stocks since 2021 and mine supply broadly flat for a decade. With paper claims on COMEX roughly 5.6 times registered physical inventory, Monarch expects physical tightness to amplify upside moves if demand strengthens.
Monarch PMS's valuation framework provides an anchor to these scenarios. It places gold's modelled value at $3,248-$4,595, with a $3,922 midpoint, while silver's modelled range is $54-$77, with a $65 midpoint. Gold's June low of $3,985 was within roughly 2% of its modelled midpoint, while silver at $61.7 remained below its midpoint, making it the cheaper of the two on this framework.
The gold-silver ratio has also normalised, rising from 46x at January's peak to around 69x today, close to its 21st-century average; Monarch PMS uses 60x as its model’s benchmark. This means silver has given back much of its earlier outperformance and now looks relatively cheaper than gold.
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