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ICICI Bank Ltd

Key Rationales

* ICICI Bank is executing well on its “One Bank One RoE” strategy, driving superior returns via Retail, SME, and Business Banking loan growth (~16% CAGR over FY22–25).

* Asset quality remains robust, with GNPA/NNPA at 1.67%/0.39% & PCR at ~77% in 4QFY25. A healthy contingency buffer of INR131b (~1% of loans) provides cushion amid cyclical risks.

* Credit costs are expected to remain contained at 40–50bp over FY26–27E

* Deposits grew 14% YoY, with strong growth in CA deposits in 4Q. CASA ratio improved to 41.8% (Qend). The bank’s digital & branch-led strategy continues to drive deposit franchise. We expect a 14% CAGR in deposits over FY25-27E.

* We estimate RoA/RoE to improve to 2.3%/17.5% by FY27, driven by better NIM trajectory, contained credit costs, and rising fee income.

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

Key Rationales

* Mahindra & Mahindra is well-positioned for longterm growth, backed by a robust product pipeline through 2030, with key ICE SUVs, BEVs, and LCVs set to launch in CY26.

* Management expects to outperform the UV industry in FY26, supported by full-year contributions from Thar Roxx, XUV 3XO, and traction in new EVs.

* A favorable monsoon and strong rural presence should drive tractor outperformance, supported by record FY25 market share of 43.3%.

* MM is targeting a 25–30% EV mix by FY30, backed by INR120b investments, VW partnership, and category leadership in e-SUVs and e-PVs.

* We estimate ~13% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25–27E, with EPS growth of 15–20% and RoE sustaining at ~18%.

UltraTech Cement Ltd

Key Rationales

* UltraTech is well-placed to deliver industry-leading growth, supported by strong capacity additions, improving demand visibility, and market share gains via acquisitions.

* Management has guided for double-digit volume growth in FY26, vs. 7–8% for the industry, driven by infrastructure and housing demand.

* Operating leverage and cost-saving initiatives (INR300/t target by FY27) should lift margins, aided by higher green energy usage, optimized lead distances, and WHRS.

* Integration of Kesoram and ICEM is progressing well, with profitability ramp-up expected by FY27.

* We estimate 15%/29%/34% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25–27E, with RoE improving to 13.7% & net debt/EBITDA declining to 0.5x.

Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd

Key Rationales

* HAL is strategically positioned for sustained longterm growth, supported by a record FY25 order book of INR1.89t, nearly double the prior year, and a strong future pipeline valued at ~INR1t to materialize over 1-2 years.

* Key growth drivers include manufacturing scaleup, sustained ROH orders (~INR200b annually), new programs like Tejas Mk1A, Su-30 avionics upgrade, LCH Prachand deliveries, and upcoming Tejas Mk2 production. The company aims to deliver 12 LCA aircraft in FY26.

* HAL has also climbed to the 3rd spot among PSUs by market cap in Jun’25, highlighting sectoral leadership and sustained investor interest.

* We estimate HAL’s revenue/PAT to grow at a 21%/14% CAGR over FY25-27, with EBITDA margins stable near 29%, supported by indigenization and operational efficiency.

Shriram Housing Finance Ltd

Key Rationales

* SHFL is poised to benefit from the rate cut cycle, with ~30% of borrowings due for repricing in FY26 and surplus liquidity normalization (~INR310b to ~INR19b), aiding NIM expansion to 8.6% by FY27.

* A strategic pivot toward higher-yielding MSME, PL, and gold loans will improve yield and diversify the loan book.

* Its expanded rural footprint (750+ branches) positions SHFL well for sustained disbursement growth and deeper customer penetration over 12– 18 months.

* SHFL expects credit costs to moderate to ~2% in FY26, supported by better urban demand, improved rural collections, and stable asset quality across key geographies

* We estimate ~19% PAT CAGR over FY25–27E and RoA/RoE of 3.3%/17% by FY27, driven by scale, product mix, and margin tailwinds.

Kaynes Technology India Ltd

Key Rationales

* Kaynes is expanding across EMS, HDI PCB, and OSAT, focusing on high-tech, margin-accretive segments like aerospace, automotive, medical, and industrials.

* It targets USD 1b revenue by FY28, driven by a robust INR66b order book (+60% YoY), North America acquisitions, and a strong manufacturing pipeline.

* HDI PCB and OSAT facilities are set to commercialize by 4QFY26, with INR50b revenue potential by FY28 at 30%/20% EBITDA margins.

* FY26 revenue is guided at INR45b, led by scale-up in auto (Valeo, TVS), medical electronics, and export traction from Honeywell.

* We estimate revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 57%/61%/70% over FY25–27E, supported by product mix shift and operating leverage.

Radico Khaitan Ltd

Key Rationales

* Radico Khaitan is well positioned for long-term growth through aggressive expansion in the premium and luxury spirits segment, leveraging strong brand equity with leading products like 8PM, Magic Moments, and Rampur Single Malt.

* It commands an 8% market share in the Rs.200mn Prestige & Above (P&A) segment, with rising consumer premiumization.

* In FY25, Radico delivered Rs.48bn revenue with 31mn cases, reflecting strong scale and consistent value creation evidenced by 25x returns over 10 years.

* Radico’s diverse portfolio and premiumization strategy offer visible long-term earnings growth in India’s evolving IMFL market.

* We estimate revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 16%/22%/30% over FY25-FY28, supported by margin expansion and operating leverage.

LT Foods Ltd

Key Rationales

* LT Foods is well-positioned for long-term growth, leveraging its strong brand equity with Daawat and Royal in global packaged foods, exporting to 80+ countries and commanding ~30% share in India’s basmati market and ~50% in the US.

* Growth drivers include expanding volumes in Basmati and Specialty Rice, margin expansion through lower input costs and freight normalization, and increasing focus on highmargin Organic & Convenience/Health segments.

* Exports (66% of revenue) offer better realizations and margins vs domestic market, making the business structurally export-led.

* Basmati rice, a niche ~4% of global rice, is expected to grow at a 9% CAGR through FY32, supported by global immigration, health trends and premiumization.

* We estimate LT Foods’ revenue/EBITDA/adj. PAT to grow at a 16%/23%/27% CAGR over FY25-FY27.

UTI Asset Management Company Ltd

Key Rationales

* UTI AMC expanded its product suite with launches of a Quant Fund (Q4) & Multi-Cap Fund (Apr’25), along with smart beta & thematic index offerings.

* Improved fund performance (70% of equity AUM in top quartiles on 1-year returns) is expected to drive equity market share gains beyond the current 3.9%.

* It continues to deepen penetration in B30 cities, with 22% of monthly avg AUM in Mar’25 from these regions, vs industry avg of ~18%. It also added 68 new Tier-2/3 branches in FY25, aiding 0.9m net folio additions.

* ~48% of equity and hybrid fund sales in Q4FY25 came via digital platforms, supported by UTI’s techled tools like ‘UTI HART’ and marketing automation. Digital SIPs also grew 25% YoY, reflecting improved investor onboarding and retention.

* We project AUM/Revenue/Core PAT CAGR of 17%/13%/20% over FY25–27.

Triumphant Institute of Management Education Ltd

Key Rationales

* TIME is a global leader in large plastic drums (50– 60% share in India), and ranks 3rd in IBCs and 2nd in Type-IV composite LPG/CNG cylinders.

* Strong momentum in the value-added products (VAP) segment, led by composite CNG cascade cylinders (30% CAGR), will raise the VAP revenue mix to 35% by FY28E.

* Capex of INR5b over FY26–27E, backed by QIP proceeds, will fund growth in CNG, LPG, and hydrogen cylinders.

* With INR4B+ annual FCF, 60% OCF/EBITDA, and 80% FCF/PAT, TIME is on track to become net cash by FY27E.

* We estimate 15%/16%/23% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25–28, led by VAP growth and margin expansion.

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