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The prospects for the year 2024 are interesting. There are elections in three democracies: the US, the UK and India. In all three, there are interesting challenges. In the US, the prospect is of a return match between Joe Biden and Donald Trump after the bruising fight four years ago. The country is deeply divided and although Trump is facing lawsuits, he seems to be enjoying wide support within the Republican Party. A victory for Trump will redefine Western Alliance as Trump may withdraw from NATO and back Putin against Ukraine. He will also breakup the US-Europe link. It will be a return to isolationism, which the US practiced in the Nineteenth Century. The UK has a different problem. During the last 15 years from 2008 to 2023, the economy has stagnated with low productivity growth, high public debt and a welfare state, which is creaking. Politics has been unstable in as much as despite the same political party -- the Conservative Party --being in power, there has been a large turnover of Prime Ministers -- five in 15 years.

The UK has long ago lost the Empire but now it even looks like it is struggling to retain its high status as a G7 power. It faces a crisis in resisting large-scale immigration and the Conservative Party faces further ructions in retaining power. The prospect is not just of the Conservative Party losing the election but in breaking up itself into rival factions. This happened once before to the British Liberal Party, which ruled for 15 years in early 20th century, but then broke up and never returned to power on its own for the next 100 years. The situation in India is by comparison predictable but still arouses concern in some quarters. It seems the BJP, which has won the last two General Elections in 2014 and 2019, will win again. The large coalition, which is in opposition, which names itself I.N.D.I.A is challenging the BJP. A third straight victory by BJP will affect the largest party in the Opposition alliance -- the Congress.

It is the Congress which was the constant party in government for 50 years after Independence. It has been struggling since 2014. From having been the defining political power in India, it is facing a challenge to recover its elan. In India, the problem is no longer of growth, although there is always more which can be done. While in terms of per capita income, India is still not in the Middle Income range, its large population gives it a total GDP, which is high up in global ranking. India is also digitising rapidly and coping with financial innovations. It is attracting foreign capital inflows, and its citizens are winning high positions abroad in corporate circles. India is young in terms of its demographics and aspiring to do better. The Congress is the largest-single party in the I.N.D.I.A alliance while its partners are regional parties with minority interests defined by caste divisions. Being the largest-single party, the Congress invites rivalry from coalition partners as well as admiration. However, it does have presumption of entitlement having been the ruling dynasty in terms of leadership. Lately, it has been losing local elections in states out of most of North India.

It is likely the dramatic outcome of the elections could be the decimation of the Congress rather than its comeback. It is not certain but the way the Ruling Party is behaving is clearly much more like what the Congress used to be -- as dismissive of the Opposition if we recall Indira Gandhi. It may very well be that the shoe is on the other foot now. India may lose the Congress to history. This may not be immediate. But democracies must survive where individual parties do not.

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