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Nifty

The September series started with a big lead for Nifty, but it lost its morning gains as it moved down to the 25200 support level. At the end of the session, it created a narrow-ranged candlestick pattern away from its current 5 DEMA support level of 25080. September has historically been a month of respite; since 2014, the index has had an average negative score of 0.61, six times out of ten. Derivative data indicates the support base at 25000 followed by 24800 to remain strong with an immediate hurdle zone around 25500 followed by 26000 itself. Technically, Nifty has been maintaining a strong hold above both its weekly 5-EMA support at 24780 and its 5-month EMA support. The daily ADX is showing signs of directional momentum play, as its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowly rising at 69. We anticipate that the index will move confidently towards 25450, with goals set for 25810 and 25990 within the current series. In the unlikely scenario that the index has a weekly closing below 24760, the entire calculation could fail. However, momentum trades have to be trimmed down if the index falls below its 5 DEMA moving average support of 25080.

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