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Market Opening View
GIFT Nifty futures for March delivery were trading around 25,665 at 7:30 AM, indicating a positive opening for the Nifty today.

Market Recap & Technical Outlook
On Wednesday, the Nifty opened with a gap-up and moved above the 25,450 level, showing early bullish momentum. However, the index faced strong selling pressure near the 50-day EMA, resulting in a nearly 200-point decline from the day’s high before recovering toward the close. Metals and Auto stocks supported the market, while PSU Banks and Infrastructure stocks underperformed. Reliance Industries weighed on the index, falling nearly 2%, whereas HCL Tech rebounded after recent weakness and Bajaj Auto gained on strong February vehicle registration data.

The Nifty closed 57.85 points higher at 25,482.50 and formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating continued caution at higher levels. The India VIX closed above 12, suggesting volatility may remain elevated in the near term. The short-term trend remains bearish and will turn bullish only above 25,770, while the 9-day simple moving average is placed at 25,594. The broader range of 25,300–25,700 is expected to determine the next directional move.

Global Market Snapshot
U.S. markets ended higher, extending recent gains amid optimism around corporate earnings and technology stocks. Nvidia supported sentiment with modest gains, while IBM rallied following a brokerage upgrade.

Dow Jones: +307 points to 49,482.15

S&P 500: +56 points to 6,946.13

Derivatives Snapshot
Futures:
FIIs reduced their long positions by 1,314 contracts and reduced short positions by 2,904 contracts, remaining net bullish by 1,590 contracts.

Options:
FIIs were net bullish by 7,503 contracts. The highest Put Open Interest was at 25,500, while the highest Call Open Interest was at 25,600, indicating a near-term trading range.

Stocks on Radar
Bullish (Based on Open Interest):
SAIL, Sammaan Capital, Infosys, SBI Card, Astral, Aditya Birla Capital, Persistent Systems, Dr. Reddy’s, BSE, Info Edge

Bearish (Based on Open Interest):
Indian Bank, Blue Star, State Bank of India, Britannia, SBI Life, IRFC, Eternal, Hindustan Petroleum, Coforge, Prestige Estates

Key News & Events to Watch
Morgan Stanley expects India’s nominal GDP growth to improve toward 10–10.5% by FY27, supported by stabilising growth and moderate inflation.
Indian investors can now trade U.S. equities through the NSE International Exchange, which is currently in a soft-launch phase and plans to expand access to multiple global markets.
MFCentral has appointed Rajesh Krishnamoorthy as CEO and Supratim Bandyopadhyay as Non-Executive Chairman, strengthening its leadership team.
The RBI has approved SBI Mutual Fund to acquire up to a 10% stake in RBL Bank, subject to regulatory conditions.
CG Power’s Indonesian subsidiary has signed an agreement to sell factory assets for IDR155 billion, while LT Foods received a reduction in U.S. countervailing duty rates, lowering its potential liability significantly.

Nifty Technical Outlook

On Wednesday, the Nifty opened with a gap up and moved above the 25,450 level. The index was bullish in the first hour but faced strong selling near the 50-day EMA, leading to a 200-point fall from the day’s high. Metals and Auto supported the index, while PSU Banks and Infra lagged. Reliance dragged the Nifty, falling 2% and ending as the top loser. HCL Tech rebounded after recent selling, while Bajaj Auto gained on strong Feb vehicle registration data. Trump’s tariffs also weighed on sentiment as the US imposed a 126% duty on Indian solar imports. Investors await India’s GDP data on Friday, while a move beyond 25,300–25,700 in the Nifty may decide the next trend. The Nifty rebounded 57.85 points closing at 25,482.50. The Nifty formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart, and we expect the selling pressure to continue for the day. The volatility index IndiaVIX has closed above 12 and we expect the volatility to increase in the short term. The Nifty short-term trend remains bearish and the trend will turn bullish only above 25,770 levels. The 9-day simple moving average is placed at 25,594.

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