Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7947-8569 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices slipped by 0.43% to settle at 1,53,943, weighed down by a firmer dollar and rising inflation concerns linked to higher oil prices. Ongoing uncertainty around U.S.-Iran peace talks has kept markets cautious, with geopolitical risks continuing to influence sentiment. Comments from Christopher Waller suggested that while the conflict may push inflation higher in the near term, a quick resolution could still leave room for rate cuts later this year. On the macro front, U.S. inflation has surged to its highest level in nearly four years, reinforcing concerns that interest rates may stay elevated for longer. At the same time, central bank demand remains a key support factor. China extended its gold-buying streak for the 17th consecutive month, with the World Gold Council noting continued net purchases by central banks globally. Physical demand trends remain mixed. In India, buying during Akshaya Tritiya was relatively muted due to record-high prices, although investment demand showed some improvement. Chinese demand also remained steady but subdued, with stable premiums reflecting cautious retail interest. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.54%. Gold has immediate support at 1,53,040, with further downside toward 1,52,145. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,54,590, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,55,245.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 152145-155245.
* Gold prices fell as the dollar firmed, while uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran peace talks revived inflation fears.
* Fed’s Waller said that while the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran will likely drive up near-term inflation.
* Gold demand during one of India's key festivals Akshaya Tritiya, stayed muted as record prices curbed jewellery purchases.
Silver
Silver slipped sharply, settling lower by 1.79% at 252,545, as escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. The situation intensified after the U.S. Navy intercepted an Iranian vessel, while Tehran responded by asserting control over key shipping routes, raising fears of prolonged disruption. Although diplomatic talks may resume in Pakistan, the outlook for a resolution remains uncertain, keeping markets on edge. On the macro front, U.S. economic data offered mixed signals. Manufacturing output dipped by 0.1% in March, missing expectations, while jobless claims fell to 207K, indicating a still-resilient labor market. This combination suggests steady economic conditions but persistent inflation risks, which continue to weigh on sentiment for non-yielding assets like silver. Meanwhile, holdings in London vaults rose 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, reflecting stable physical supply. Commerzbank maintains a bullish long-term outlook, projecting silver prices could reach $90 per ounce, though at a more gradual pace. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.07% to 5,854 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 250,730, with a break potentially testing 248,915. On the upside, resistance stands at 254,360, and a move above this could push prices toward 256,175.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 248915-256175.
* Silver dropped as renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying inflation concerns.
* Commerzbank said it expects the price of silver to reach $90 an ounce by the end of this year.
* As at end March 2026, the amount of silver held in London vaults was 27,487 tonnes, a 1.6% increase on previous month.
Crude oil
Crude oil saw a sharp rally, settling 6.97% higher at 8,308, driven by a fresh escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The situation worsened after attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides targeting ships and effectively disrupting traffic through this critical route. The U.S. seizure of Iranian-linked vessels and Tehran’s retaliation have raised concerns about prolonged supply disruptions, while uncertainty around upcoming peace talks continues to keep markets volatile. On the supply side, the impact is already visible. OPEC data showed Saudi Arabia’s oil supply dropped significantly to 7.76 million barrels per day in March, the lowest since mid-2020, with similar declines across Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has forced producers to curb output, tightening global supply. Supporting this narrative, U.S. crude inventories fell by 0.91 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks also posted larger-than-expected declines, indicating firm demand. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports remained strong, particularly from Russia and Brazil, highlighting resilient global consumption. However, OPEC trimmed its Q2 global demand forecast slightly due to geopolitical uncertainties. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping sharply by 46.7%. Immediate support is seen at 8,128, with further downside at 7,947. On the upside, resistance stands at 8,439, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 8,569.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7947-8569.
* Crude oil jumped as tensions between the US and Iran escalated following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.*
* China's crude oil imports from Russia, were 10.07 million tons in March, or 2.37 mbpd, up 14% year-on-year
* Saudi Arabia’s oil supply to the market fell to 7,763 thousand barrels per day in March 2026, the lowest since June 2020.
Natural gas
Natural gas edged higher, settling up by 0.6% at 251.7, supported by a recent dip in output and expectations of slightly cooler weather boosting demand into early May. Prices also drew strength from strong LNG export flows and a broader rally in energy markets, as crude oil surged on renewed geopolitical tensions after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo vessel, raising concerns about a fragile ceasefire. On the supply side, U.S. production has remained robust overall, averaging 110.4 bcfd in April, though daily output has slipped to around 108.3 bcfd over the past two weeks. At the same time, mild spring weather has kept demand relatively subdued, allowing storage levels to build faster than usual. The EIA reported a 59 bcf injection for the week ended April 10, well above both market expectations and historical averages, pushing inventories to about 7% above normal levels. Looking ahead, the EIA expects production to hit record highs through 2026 and beyond, while demand may soften slightly before recovering. From a technical standpoint, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down by 11.34%. Immediate support is placed at 248.6, with a further downside target at 245.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at 255.2, and a break above this could extend gains toward 258.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 245.6-258.8.
* Natural gas edged up on a drop in output over the past couple of weeks and forecasts for cooler weather.
* Gas futures were also supported by near-record gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants and a 5% jump in crude futures.
* Speculators increase NYMEX net short positions to highest since Nov 2024, CFTC data shows
Copper
Copper edged lower by 0.27% to settle at 1269.4, as renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire weighed on broader market sentiment and raised concerns about global growth. Still, losses were limited by steady demand from China, where the Yangshan premium remained firm at $69 per ton, indicating continued appetite for imports despite a slight pullback. On the supply side, inventories presented a mixed picture. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped nearly 10% week-on-week and are down about 45% since mid-March, pointing to tightening availability in the domestic market. In contrast, LME inventories remain elevated near 12-year highs, highlighting ample global supply. Additional support came from concerns over sulphur shortages—an important input for copper processing—due to disruptions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, production trends were mixed, with declines reported at major mines like Codelco and Escondida, though some operations such as Collahuasi posted strong gains. Looking ahead, market outlooks remain cautious. Goldman Sachs expects a larger global surplus in 2026 and has trimmed its price forecast, while Citi sees prices stabilizing closer to $12,000 per ton later in the year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 4.4%. Immediate support is seen at 1265.4, with further downside toward 1261.4, while resistance stands at 1274.1 and then 1278.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1261.4-1278.8.
* Copper lost ground as the Strait of Hormuz closed to marine traffic once more and a fragile ceasefire.
* LME copper stocks meanwhile, remain near a 12-year high at just under 400,000 tons.
* The Yangshan copper premium, remained strong at $69 a ton, despite easing from $74 a ton on April 14.
Zinc
Zinc edged higher by 0.4% to settle at 340.45, supported by ongoing concerns over near-term supply tightness. Falling inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have signaled tightening physical availability, while mine closures and operational disruptions continue to restrict supply. At the same time, improving industrial activity in China, with factory data returning to expansion, has lent support by strengthening demand expectations for base metals. However, the broader outlook remains mixed. While supply-side constraints are offering near-term support, worries about the global economic impact of the Iran conflict are weighing on sentiment across industrial metals. China’s central bank has reiterated its commitment to a loose monetary stance, even as rising factory-gate inflation highlights increasing cost pressures within the industrial sector. On the supply front, the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project are expected to keep the global zinc market in a modest surplus. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group also showed a shift to a 9,200-ton surplus in January. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects a small surplus in 2026, though tightening conditions could emerge beyond that period. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 3.08%. Support is seen at 339.3, followed by 338.2, while resistance is placed at 341.7, with a potential move toward 343 on a breakout.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 338.2-343.
* Zinc gained amid concerns over near-term supply tightness.
* Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to decline, indicating tightening physical availability.
* The global zinc market swung to a surplus of 49,600 metric tons in February from a deficit of 21,900 tons in January – ILZSG
Aluminium
Aluminium edged higher by 0.43% to settle at 365, supported by renewed concerns over supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for nearly 9% of global output. Tensions escalated after Iran again blocked the Strait of Hormuz shortly after reopening it, citing ongoing U.S. actions. This has heightened fears of prolonged supply constraints, especially as damage to key UAE smelters may take up to a year to fully recover. Tightening supply conditions are becoming more visible across the market. Stocks at major Japanese ports dropped 7.4% month-on-month, while premiums for Japanese buyers surged to their highest levels in 11 years, reflecting strong demand for immediate delivery. Production in the Gulf region also declined, with daily output falling notably in March, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Meanwhile, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped slightly, adding to the narrative of constrained availability. On the demand side, China remains supportive, with imports rising 6.9% year-on-year in March and production increasing 2.7%, indicating steady consumption despite higher prices. Looking ahead, JP Morgan expects a significant global deficit in 2026, with prices potentially moving higher as supply disruptions persist. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down 10.51%. Support is placed at 362.9 and 360.7, while resistance is seen at 366.8, with a possible move toward 368.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 360.7-368.5.
* Aluminium gained amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf.
* Gulf aluminium production falls 6% month – on – month in March due to war, IAI says
* Global primary aluminium output in March rose 0.9% year-on-year to 6.302 million tons - IAI
Turmeric
Turmeric slipped marginally by 0.27% to settle at 16,102, mainly due to profit booking after the recent price rally. Despite the dip, the underlying tone remains firm as arrivals in key mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana continue to stay below normal for this peak season, creating a near-term supply squeeze. Quality concerns, especially due to moisture-related issues like rhizome rot, have reduced the availability of premium “double polished” varieties, further tightening supply. In major hubs like Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are holding back stocks, expecting prices to move higher, with top-grade “Salem Fali” already commanding premiums near Rs.20,000 per quintal. Carry-forward stocks are estimated around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season, which is adding to the bullish sentiment. Demand remains supportive, particularly from export markets, with steady buying from Bangladesh and increased interest in IPM-certified turmeric from Europe. On the trade front, export trends remain mixed—monthly shipments are lower, but cumulative exports show marginal growth, indicating stable medium-term demand. Imports have declined sharply, reflecting reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 4.24%. Immediate support is seen at 15,954 and 15,808, while resistance stands at 16,322, with a potential move toward 16,544 if momentum strengthens.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15808-16544.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana have remained lower than normal.
* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.
* Growing orders for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from the EU are supporting prices for compliant stocks.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15833.7 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices slipped by 0.98% to settle at Rs.21,735, mainly weighed down by steady arrivals of around 28,500 bags in Unjha, which kept the upside in check. However, on a year-on-year basis, arrivals remain lower, indicating tighter spot availability. Weather has played a critical role this season—intense heatwaves in Gujarat during the final crop stage have led to shriveled grains, while unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan have damaged standing crops, raising concerns over the availability of premium “A-grade” and bold-quality jeera. Production estimates also reflect a tighter scenario, with total output seen at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat’s output has taken a significant hit due to reduced acreage and lower yields, while disease outbreaks like blight have further impacted quality. Despite these constraints, export demand remains weak, with January shipments falling 48% YoY and overall exports down 15% for Apr–Jan, limiting bullish momentum. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, as open interest rose by 1.7% while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at Rs.21,560, with a further downside towards Rs.21,390. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.22,040, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards Rs.22,350.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21390-22350.
* Jeera prices fell as steady Unjha arrivals near 28,500 bags capped upside potential
* Intense heatwaves in Gujarat during the final maturation stage have resulted in shriveled grains, reducing the supply of bold-grade Jeera.
* Outbreaks of blight disease in key Gujarat pockets have reduced the quality and quantity of the harvestable crop.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21660.85 Rupees dropped by -0.52 percent.
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