Comex Gold Prices Poised to Reach US$3,600 by Year-End Amid Global Uncertainty: Ventura
According to Ventura, a leading full-service stock broking platform, Gold prices are expected to remain elevated in the second half of 2025. This is supported by macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical tensions, and robust investment demand. Ventura expects Comex Gold to touch US$3,600 by year-end, after hitting a record high of US$3,534.10 on August 7, 2025, surpassing the previous peak of US$3,509.90 set in April 2025.
Over the past 20 years, gold has delivered positive annual returns in 14 calendar years, reinforcing its status as a proven store of value and a hedge against inflation. Recent performance underscores its resilience, with average annual returns of 23% over the last three years compared to 11% for the Nifty 50. In volatile market conditions, gold’s negative correlation to equities has provided effective diversification, cushioning portfolio losses during sell-offs while participating in upswings.
India's Gold ETF Market Witnesses Record Growth
India’s gold ETF holdings rose 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tons as of June 30, 2025, with AUM surging 88% to Rs.64,777 crore. The number of investor accounts expanded 41% to 76.54 lakh, reflecting growing preference for digital gold investments. This shift from traditional jewelry ownership to tech-enabled investment channels is being driven by Gen Z investors, fractional ownership models, and the influence of social media and fintech innovations.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities, Ventura, said: “Gold’s strategic role in portfolios has strengthened as investors navigate an era of slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated geopolitical risks. With inflationary pressures, a softening US dollar, and anticipated US Fed rate cuts, we see sustained upside potential in gold prices through the remainder of 2025. Our analysis indicates COMEX Gold could test the $3,600 mark by year-end, supported by strong ETF inflows, steady central bank buying, and robust retail participation in India’s gold investment market.”
Global Demand Dynamics Remain Supportive
Global gold demand in Q2 2025 stood at 1,249 tons, up 3% year-on-year, with investment demand and ETF inflows offsetting weaker jewelry consumption. Central bank gold holdings worldwide rose to 36,345 tons, with India’s reserves at 880 tons.
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